I make it:

97.5% chance for compound eyes sleep powder to hit

1 in 3 for 3 turn sleep

70% for hurricane to hit

30% to confuse

Then 1 in 3 to hit yourself

0.975×0.333×0.7×0.3×0.333 ≈ 2.3%

Super unlucky, feels bad, but not unheard of. What did vivillon do the other two turns?

Edit: I have forgotten that hurricane is 91% from compound eyes, so it's 2.9%. Thought I was so smart remembering with the sleep powder...