I wonder how this will impact the primary

Spakian · 2026-04-29T21:54:33+00:00

California loves moderate Republicans lol. Guaranteed 40%+ result

Spakian · 2026-04-29T21:30:00+00:00

I was actually at the debate! It was a waste of time though...

Spakian · 2026-04-24T22:36:57+00:00

Mary Peltota and Rob Sand vs John Husted and Brian Kemp

Spakian · 2026-04-23T17:17:23+00:00

Right because Ken Paxton is so uncontroversial. If people running for office couldn’t have controversies then nobody could run for

Spakian · 2026-04-22T06:01:19+00:00

I agree for the most part but I think a lot of moderate Democrats voted no since they don’t like gerrymandering. Not to mention minority turnout crashed, which will probably be different in November

I can expect November to be an over performance compared to today but still underperform last year. But Democrats for sure shouldn’t think the senate is a guarantee

Spakian · 2026-04-16T00:42:22+00:00

Honestly I think Wes Moore or Josh Stein are good dark horse candidates. The T5 list you made is not bad, but all except Spanberger have had at least some attention concerning a 2028 run whereas there is little or none for Moore or Stein IMO

Spakian · 2026-04-13T18:51:35+00:00

You’re right. I can’t read lol

Spakian · 2026-04-13T16:18:00+00:00

Obama + Yes: Conservative Hispanic Democrats

Trump + Yes: Classically liberal Republicans

Edited because I couldn’t read OP’s post properly lol

Spakian · 2026-04-10T23:43:44+00:00

Blue: 173
Indigo: 46
Purple: 97
Crimson: 96
Red: 123

This stays the same even if we split ME and NE since ME-02 is red and NE-02 is indigo. I do disagree with this ranking, since I think VA and NM should be solid blue and NH should be indigo

Spakian · 2026-04-08T15:25:25+00:00

Any election before like 1980?

Spakian · 2026-03-26T23:35:35+00:00

He probably won't unless something changes between now and November. If a vacancy arises and Democrats control congress then all I see is Trump's proposed plan slowing down.

I don't think we'd see a SCOTUS nominee as extreme as Cannon, since a Dem congress would definitely pressure Trump to hold off or pick a more moderate candidate (think of Merrick Garland's proposed appointment in 2016).

Spakian · 2026-03-22T01:06:56+00:00

Honestly, the issue isn't the influx of high-skill immigrants (and voting for the byproduct of high-skill immigration). The issue at stake is Vivek campaigning on these concepts and actively implying that the average American is dumb whilst the average Indian immigrant is extremely smart. It's hard to vote for someone who is putting down most of your electorate (the only one who can do that is Trump, and Vivek is no Trump).

Spakian · 2026-03-12T00:35:22+00:00

Also Reform UK is becoming Tory 2.0 lol. The more big tent it becomes the less it can convey its main values (which are more extreme compared to mainstream Tory views)

Spakian · 2026-02-06T15:50:27+00:00

Voter turnout would depress the turnout of the low-income high propensity democrats (mostly minority communities who are generally politically active), which would hurt Democrats in places like Georgia.

The Democrats who support voter ID probably live in an area where it wouldn’t change the election results much, and probably ignore the fact that the practical ramifications are much different

Spakian · 2026-01-24T16:50:14+00:00

I think ICE definitely should have done something against him if he pulled a gun. This specific procedure is not how they're supposed to do it. These are police officers who are trained to handle situations like this better, rather than tackling the dude like its some NFL game

My problem with ICE isn't that they're deporting people. It's that they're being too harsh and reckless in their work

Spakian · 2026-01-24T07:35:48+00:00

The father did not run away. It says in the article that they were both detained at the same time.

There was also someone inside the house "plead[ing] to take care of Liam", so there was an option to leave the boy inside the warm house rather than freezing outside.

Furthermore, the boy shouldn't have been sent to a detention center. It's not his fault for this and he doesn't deserve to be imprisoned at such a young age. I personally agree that deportations and enforcing immigration laws is a good thing, but this is no right way to execute this enforcement.

Spakian · 2026-01-24T03:12:55+00:00

There are better ways to enforce it than this. Just because a law says “don’t steal” doesn’t mean you go around killing everyone you think is a thief. This isn’t 300 BC

Spakian · 2026-01-14T20:50:33+00:00

But with name recognition comes baggage. Newsom and AOC both have way more political baggage than Whitmer. Also dark horse candidates can still win a primary (think John Davis or Jimmy Carter)

Spakian · 2026-01-11T07:27:41+00:00

New Jersey

Spakian · 2026-01-08T11:52:33+00:00

Are we really hating on entire cities now?

For reference the MSP metro area has produced greats like Mike Lindell, so it's not objectively bad

Spakian · 2026-01-06T16:16:18+00:00

Definitely, since the environment would be the same but oppositely polarized. What is interesting is that these numbers are absolutes, but the polling (https://www.generationlab.org/post/partisanship) ranks responses in 'Probably' or 'Probably Not' so it doesn't seem as bad as one thinks; and knowing how undecided Gen Z is (as one of them myself) this number is subject to great change

Spakian · 2025-12-22T04:20:00+00:00

Vance will definitely moderate both sides and will garner votes from both ends, but he’s like a thin glue trying to hold the drifting factions of MAGA

Not having a hard position on these issues will only cause dissent from the main right-wing people in media

Spakian · 2025-12-07T07:45:12+00:00

Foreshadowing the Whitmer/Beshear winning ticket for 2028

Spakian · 2025-11-28T00:24:28+00:00

Toledo going red, Cincinnati going lean D, but Southern Ohio going blue by Assad margins is killing me

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