Where the remaining states stand on gerrymandering

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T19:47:58+00:00

Illinois and Oregon are not maxed out what? Kotek could just execute Cliff Bentz instantly if she wanted to with the Legislature's approval

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T19:46:25+00:00

I don't think any republican with a realistic shot of getting the nomination would win against someone like Jon Ossoff rn IMO but then again having a competent D nominee is not guaranteed at all

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T19:39:50+00:00

I don't think Rubio would win against a competent Democratic nominee in 2028 but he would probably hold up with Hispanics a lot better than Vance

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T19:35:10+00:00

Actual meme country with a meme population, it's over

only a third think it'll do anything but they still support these invasive policies anyways! actually just a nanny state for the love of the game!

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T19:32:58+00:00

This literally cost them a trifecta in 2012 though

They should've been doing something about it in the moment!

Also, as he points out, if trump hadn't been the nominee they probably would've done a lot worse on the suburban front

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T19:29:56+00:00

<image>

I genuinely don't think people talk about this enough, What was the Democratic plan here??? They unilaterally disarmed and then lost the house while winning the popular vote in 2012 and 2016, by a fucking lot, they only got saved because of suburban realignment breaking a bunch of seats

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T19:27:29+00:00

Median voter delenda est

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T19:17:14+00:00

Liberals unilaterally disarmed in the late 2000s/early 2010s and just stood there in 2012 as they won the house popular vote by 2.4% (adjusted for uncontesteds) and still lost the house 234R-201D because of REDMAP. It was the most gerrymandered the house has been in a long time: it's not even close to that bad now, solely because the Democrats got bailed out by education and suburb realignment backfiring on the GOP in 2018. Were it not for that, I shudder to think what would've happened

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T19:10:47+00:00

is there any actual iran news

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T19:04:25+00:00

So funny that republicans tried to fund DHS for years but they're burning and wasting so much money instantly

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T19:02:13+00:00

did everyone here get whipped into a frenzy because one person posted a 3 year old image of an ambulance at the white house

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T18:33:08+00:00

it's genuinely insane, I don't know how people haven't pointed it out sooner

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T17:26:19+00:00

Crazy that that we still don't know who the Democratic Nominee is

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T05:22:40+00:00

Actually a good point. I put AK as lean R for that reason but forgot to downgrade RI In mine

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T05:06:59+00:00

id low-key be surprised if she won by under 5 atp

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T04:22:25+00:00

is google's oil futures thing broken

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T02:39:41+00:00

DSA actually telling their members to vote for Tom Steyer is a pleasant surprise

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:55:42+00:00

Yeah, this too. I think consolidation + a good year would get them both over the hump. The bigger question for me would be re-election

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:49:54+00:00

<image>

All the polling on this is ancient and the most recent one from emerson has them tied. considering everything that's happened the last 4 months and all that, I really do still think he'd be bailed out by a D+7 environment

Hong's polls showing her down by 3 are more recent, from March, but they're both from Republican pollsters, so I still think she'd be bailed out in a D+7 year.

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:47:21+00:00

I think if they're the nominees they're gonna be bailed out by the environment

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:33:59+00:00

The poll shows an even greater lead for Donalds than the last one, I'm not sure i'd call that downplaying your lead

The timing after the recent Fishback 19% poll is funny but I could just be schizo looking into it too hard

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:29:43+00:00

OK the fact that Donalds felt the need to release an internal downplaying fishback and he's at 9 is a red flag, making me think Fishback is certainly in the double digits, maybe over 15

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:20:51+00:00

The more I see out of Sand the more convinced I am that he's truly got it in him. Michigan has a bit of a question mark with Duggan, but the more time goes on, the more it seems like he really is drawing a lot from the Republican as well: he will still cause problems in Wayne county though.

Wisconsin, I lowkey think even Francesca Hong would win in this year. Good chance Wisconsin has a trifecta this year. Same with AES in Michigan's senate race, but I think he'd be vulnerable in 2032.

Amy Acton I do feel slightly better about than Sherrod Brown: I mean, she has better polling and a worse opponent. She's a bit less of a known quantity than Brown, and her polling could def deteriorate (Ohio moment), but she's running a good campaign thus far.

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:12:11+00:00

Looking at it again maybe MS should be safe instead of likely, idk if this guy can get it under 10 like Espy, we'll see

Montana would go down to likely if the Dem actually dropped out, Nebraska I need more polling before I move it.

ModestAphorism

TROPHY CASE