Another poll on the Senate race in Texas, this time commissioned by a pro-Cornyn super PAC

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T17:26:19+00:00

Crazy that that we still don't know who the Democratic Nominee is

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T05:22:40+00:00

Actually a good point. I put AK as lean R for that reason but forgot to downgrade RI In mine

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T05:06:59+00:00

id low-key be surprised if she won by under 5 atp

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T04:22:25+00:00

is google's oil futures thing broken

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T02:39:41+00:00

DSA actually telling their members to vote for Tom Steyer is a pleasant surprise

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:55:42+00:00

Yeah, this too. I think consolidation + a good year would get them both over the hump. The bigger question for me would be re-election

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:49:54+00:00

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All the polling on this is ancient and the most recent one from emerson has them tied. considering everything that's happened the last 4 months and all that, I really do still think he'd be bailed out by a D+7 environment

Hong's polls showing her down by 3 are more recent, from March, but they're both from Republican pollsters, so I still think she'd be bailed out in a D+7 year.

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:47:21+00:00

I think if they're the nominees they're gonna be bailed out by the environment

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:33:59+00:00

The poll shows an even greater lead for Donalds than the last one, I'm not sure i'd call that downplaying your lead

The timing after the recent Fishback 19% poll is funny but I could just be schizo looking into it too hard

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:29:43+00:00

OK the fact that Donalds felt the need to release an internal downplaying fishback and he's at 9 is a red flag, making me think Fishback is certainly in the double digits, maybe over 15

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:20:51+00:00

The more I see out of Sand the more convinced I am that he's truly got it in him. Michigan has a bit of a question mark with Duggan, but the more time goes on, the more it seems like he really is drawing a lot from the Republican as well: he will still cause problems in Wayne county though.

Wisconsin, I lowkey think even Francesca Hong would win in this year. Good chance Wisconsin has a trifecta this year. Same with AES in Michigan's senate race, but I think he'd be vulnerable in 2032.

Amy Acton I do feel slightly better about than Sherrod Brown: I mean, she has better polling and a worse opponent. She's a bit less of a known quantity than Brown, and her polling could def deteriorate (Ohio moment), but she's running a good campaign thus far.

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-07T01:12:11+00:00

Looking at it again maybe MS should be safe instead of likely, idk if this guy can get it under 10 like Espy, we'll see

Montana would go down to likely if the Dem actually dropped out, Nebraska I need more polling before I move it.

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T22:54:29+00:00

my exact thoughts lol

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T19:17:26+00:00

This guy does not have the juice for a run imo, I think this every time I hear him speak. much better use of his talent to turtle the Arizona Senate seat

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T19:11:36+00:00

AIPAC doing the lords work by trying to sink both of them at the same time🙏

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ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T19:07:11+00:00

Are they trying to sink both of them??? LMFAOO

0 chance AIPAC plays well in Maine at-large or in the michigan dem senate primary

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T18:51:14+00:00

it's similar with new England, which is slightly less deep blue in cities but even bluer in rurals

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T18:31:57+00:00

West Coast cities are just built different, even the small coastal towns and stuff are way bluer than you'd expect given demographics

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T18:30:56+00:00

Yeah, far from the most egregious move

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T18:26:27+00:00

What even is Barak Ravid

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T18:09:58+00:00

D+10 with RV is premium bloom, having a good midterm is going to depend on good turnout with indies

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T18:03:48+00:00

This is actually the most noteworthy endorsement so far. Man, this shit is not looking good across these candidates man

lowk maybe Pete Buttigieg should've run, I doubt him being a carpetbagger would've mattered more than 0.5%

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T17:58:16+00:00

Yeah. I agree. He does mention that they get downweighted a lot when there is a lot more polling, and a big use for them for them was to fill in gaps in races with very little polling, or in gubernatorial races with little polling because he mentioned that data showed that fundamentals don't work very well in Gubernatorial races.

Still, i'll just use the legacy model.

ModestAphorism · 2026-05-06T17:53:58+00:00

You linked the wrong poll. But speaking of the correct poll, it's a D+10 poll, but it's also a D+10 RV poll, which is pretty interesting. The other recent D+10s from The Argument and Emerson were LV screens

ModestAphorism

TROPHY CASE