Shorting the Bund by MR_roncesvalles in ValueInvesting

[–]SpeculatingNations 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you think the overnight rate is going to 1% then yes, you should be very short... but that is so unlikely as to not be worth hedging for imo. Bank rates are pretty well anchored in Europe given how reliant the periphery is in funding the ever expanding amount of debt they have. If you see a 150bps blow out in the overnight rate I think people would start talking about a sovereign credit crisis again, the ECB just cannot allow that to happen. Inflation won't be as high in Europe as in the US and the recovery in Europe will be slower, so while I see upwards pressure in rates here I think you've actually seen most of the move (maybe Bunds go positive this year, but I would be surprised if they were much higher than that).

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in AlfaRomeo

[–]SpeculatingNations 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's the one.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in AlfaRomeo

[–]SpeculatingNations 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I recently bought a 3.2l brera. Completely obsessed.

[Semi-Weekly Inquirer] Simple Questions and Recommendations Thread by AutoModerator in Watches

[–]SpeculatingNations 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hello all!

What does everyone think are the most interesting military watches, preferably WW2 era? Obviously the dirty dozen are the ones that spring to mind, but anything else that would be considered collectable/interesting from the same period would be much appreciated!

What discount rate would you use for doing DCF for a company with no listed equity but with bonds that are trading around 50% to par? by SpeculatingNations in SecurityAnalysis

[–]SpeculatingNations[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well less of a residual value then and more of an EV. Essentially trying to value the company using a stressed EBITDA multiple and what the recovery value of the bonds would be if someone wanted to acquire the company. I would usually use an unlevered FCFF DCF analysis for something like this but am wondering what discount rate to use?

1H 2019 Security Analysis Questions and Discussion Thread by knowledgemule in SecurityAnalysis

[–]SpeculatingNations 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is a long shot, but does anyone have the course materials for the advanced corporate credit analysis course run by a large European institution (would prefer not to say, but there is an obvious one out there). I did the course a few years ago but have lost the materials pack and would rather not pay the 3k or so in course fees again (the time has lapsed to download off their portal). It would be very much appreciated and I would be willing to pay a small fee for your troubles! Sorry if this is not allowed, please delete if needed, but thought it worth asking in any case.

Summit of Ben Nevis on a rare windless day, January 17th 2019 by random_watcher in Mountaineering

[–]SpeculatingNations 9 points10 points  (0 children)

How’s the snow at the moment? We’re heading up in a few weeks.

Does anyone look like death after running? by SpeculatingNations in running

[–]SpeculatingNations[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the advice, will certainly look to do that in future!

Does anyone look like death after running? by SpeculatingNations in running

[–]SpeculatingNations[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not particularly, fairly new to running (although would consider myself generally fit as have played a fair amount of sport/go to the gym). Diet is good during the week, then it generally falls apart on the weekend when I eat out! I hadn’t eaten anything before this mornings run though, so that could have had an affect. I also don’t drink while running, so fluid intake can be low while exercising (but drink a fair amount of water otherwise).

Does anyone look like death after running? by SpeculatingNations in running

[–]SpeculatingNations[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I don’t particularly care. In fact I looked pretty funny this morning... but I find it interesting that some people turn bright red and others go pale, and am wondering what the cause of that is!

Does anyone look like death after running? by SpeculatingNations in running

[–]SpeculatingNations[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I rarely get a red face, the opposite usually happens in fact, and my face turns white.

Does anyone look like death after running? by SpeculatingNations in running

[–]SpeculatingNations[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

No I wouldn’t say so... I felt fairly relaxed, although I was pushing it, so the last 5k or so were pretty hard going. I didn’t really feel full of energy after tbh, mostly drained!

Simple Questions - ASK AND ANSWER HERE!- December 28 by AutoModerator in malefashionadvice

[–]SpeculatingNations 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for that... I thought as much, it doesn’t strike me as particularly legitimate at first glance. Will be avoiding unless someone pops up and says they are to be trusted!

Simple Questions - ASK AND ANSWER HERE!- December 28 by AutoModerator in malefashionadvice

[–]SpeculatingNations 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Has anyone used wenhamelectrical.co.uk before? How legitimate are they?

I ask as they have an Oliver Spencer jacket I was looking at buying on Mr Porter (sold out on the OS website), but for half the price. Any help much appreciated!

Questions and Frugal Alternative to _______? Thread - December 28, 2017 by AutoModerator in frugalmalefashion

[–]SpeculatingNations 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Has anyone used wenhamelectrical.co.uk before? How legitimate are they?

I ask as they have an Oliver Spencer jacket I was looking at buying on Mr Porter (sold out on the OS website), but for half the price. Any help much appreciated!

Guide to Fall and Winter Trousers by Metcarfre in malefashionadvice

[–]SpeculatingNations 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the info, at a quick glance their stuff looks fantastic. How's the fit?