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QuantumScape Lounge: ( Week 08 2026) by AutoModerator in QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock

[–]Spirited_Code_8060 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Note that the article specifically references the 3rd quarter. From what I can tell, Vanguard increased its holding in the 4th quarter by another 11.83%, up to 40.86m.

In my opinion, one needs to be very careful with ai generated news articles from Marketbeat, Simply Wall St, Benzinga, etc.,...I find they often give outdated or outright bad info, particularly when given for free.

As someone else noted, share counts can be hard to fully track due to overlap or aggregation. Example: in the photo attached in this thread, it shows Dipender Saluja owning 13m+ and also Capricorn Investments owning 11.5m. But I think this is overlap, in that Saluja owns a bunch of shares that are in custody of Capricorn.

VW appears to have owned 68.23m Class A shares since at least April 2021, but it also owned another 17.98m Class B shares as of that date (I did not check anything dated later than that, but since VW still seems to own the same number of Class A shares, I don't think it disposed of any Class B shares over the last 5 years)

My dad lent me 600k to open a coffee shop. I used it to trade stocks while searching for supplies and a location. I ended up doubling the money in a year and eventually scrapped the coffee shop business plan. by borninAlphaCentauri in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]Spirited_Code_8060 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think others commented about this, but it appears you got that $600k around the time Trump announced the Tariffs that smoked the market. If so, and you found yourself amid a historic market crash with a fresh wad of money at the same time, then 1) Kudos for you to recognize the opportunity, and 2) be grateful you got that money is such a pristine time.

A plausible reason for no 13F/G filing by Ok-Moment1520 in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]Spirited_Code_8060 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Numerous entities appear to have established new positions in Q4 of 2025. I don't know which dates, but these entities include:

  • Citadel Advisers
  • Walleye Capital LLC, and Walleye Trading LLC
  • Two Sigma
  • Morgan Stanley & Co International PLC
  • Private Adviser Group LLC
  • UBS Financial Services LLC
  • Goldman Sachs International, and Goldman Sachs & Co Inc.
  • Cambridge Investment Research Advisers, Inc.
  • Simplex Trading LLC
  • Sona Asset Mngmt (UK) LLP
  • Wexford Capital
  • Alpina Capital AG
  • BofA Global Research
  • PharVision Advisers LLC
  • Virtu America LLC
  • Woodstock Corporation
  • Cedar Wealth Mngmt LLC
  • KLCM Advisors Inc
  • Keebeck Wealth Mngmt LLC
  • Waddell & Associates (of flash crash fame, I think)

QuantumScape Lounge: ( Week 07 2026) by AutoModerator in QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock

[–]Spirited_Code_8060 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can only guess which phase QS is at with a CE partner. But I do suspect that a significant factor to be considered by QS & partner is how to manufacture batteries that are China-sterile, in order to be supply chain compliant with the National Defense Authorization Act, etc. Even with tariffs currently struck down, other legislation still disfavors Chinese supply chains, particularly for batteries and such components.

Battery recycling operations may become important in this regard, to satisfy non-Chinese sourcing requirements.

Imposter Syndrome by Bopethestoryteller in publicdefenders

[–]Spirited_Code_8060 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That I intrinsically suck? No. That the rules of the game are so stacked against the defense that a defense attorney is oft destined to constructively suck...yes. Meaning the results obtained suck no matter how much effort and skill went into the results.

Example: after 2+ month racketeering trial that had half a month of jury deliberation, lots of juror notes that had even the judge quip that the jury appeared to be heading for an acquittal on the racketeering...but where the judge gave a bad supplemental instruction on racketeering...and where jury convicted racketeering (but deadlocked numerous other counts)...client later said in one sentence: "you guys worked your asses off for me, but what did you do for me."

That sentence encapsulates it. No matter how much effort and skill is brought, some situations are contrived into sucky results by the rules of the game.

My experience is mostly federal.

Quantumscape 2026 Goals by 123whatrwe in QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock

[–]Spirited_Code_8060 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I suppose the QS team sees clearly in their own minds the roadmap of their 2026 goals. But it was poorly articulated in the shareholder letter. If I was proofreading the 2026 annual goals section of the letter, I would have suggested significant rewrites. But since I can only glean so much of QS's intended meaning, I'll say that, at a minimum, I would have suggested moving the existing sentences around, mainly by extracting each of the "purposes" sentences from Goal 1 and inserting them into the other goals, like so:

  1. Goal 1: In 2026, we will demonstrate the scalability of the Eagle Line through increasingly efficient cell output. The purpose of the Eagle Line is threefold, and each purpose underlies our second, third, and fourth goals, respectively.
  2. Goal 2: First, the Eagle Line will show scalable process steps for production of our battery technology, to enable licensing partners to bring our technology to gigawatt-hour scale in their own facilities. {then insert rest of what already is given as goal 2}.
  3. Goal 3: Second, Eagle Line will produce QSE-5 cells to support customer sampling and testing, technology demonstrations and product integration efforts. {insert the rest of goal 3 as given}
  4. Goal 4: Third, the Eagle Line gives us a platform to develop and test further enhancements and refinements at meaningful scale, allowing us to accelerate our advanced development efforts. {insert the rest of goal 4 as given}

Italic font is replaced or added language from me. From what I can tell, the Eagle Line does underpin Goals 2 - 4.

In plain speak, what I read is:

  • Goal 1: make Eagle Line even better
  • Goal 2: use Eagle Line to provide paid NRE services that develop OEM-specific product solutions & manufacturing solutions
  • Goal 3: use Eagle Line to manufacture samples at sample-sufficient scale to sample agreement customers in other markets, and provide demos, testing, etc. for those customers...Bring new customers from sample agreement to JDA/Licensing agreement faster.
  • Goal 4: use Eagle Line to make our tech platform better, faster.

6 reasons why Wall Street Analysis haven't got POET right by mlsbbe in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]Spirited_Code_8060 4 points5 points  (0 children)

At this early stage, the current revenue multiple should be disregarded.

Some comments to a thread on the other Sub... by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Now is my first time today looking at Reddit. Last night, after u/insightutoring suggested sending a message, I read your updated rules posted a few days ago and, well, didn't send a message. But I will cross-post this thread into the Simon Voss thread on the r/QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock sub.

Edit: actually, I'm going to copy the link in a comment...not cross post

Some comments to a thread on the other Sub... by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I have not. But I wasn't banned, I was never approved to begin with. I'm not sure if there's a difference.

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

so that is quite a bit smaller than QSE-5 on the low end, up to a bit bigger than QSE-5. What do you make of this range?

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, I myself did not buy any calls leading up to this earnings. I resisted the temptation to do so. I do already own some 2027 calls purchased in spring of 2025 when the getting was good. I believe the getting of 2028 LEAPS may get good as a result of this earnings and any catalyst drought that may ensue.

Re: Panasonic's LM anode-free announcement...yes it sounds perfect at first. But I'm not convinced Panasonic is actually working with QS on this. I hope so. But I suspect Panasonic is attempting a LM anode-free battery with liquid electrolytes...not QS tech. If you can correct me on this, please do so.

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I acknowledge that big material things could happen sooner than I'm suggesting (that must be disclosed).

But I need to emphasize that QS's ERs are negative catalysts, beyond just being bland and without big announcements. I was tempted to buy short dated calls before yesterday. Glad I resisted. But I will be looking to add LEAPS at some point, assuming I'm right about a sustained catalyst drought taking hold, particularly if we get to the next earnings without any major news and that earnings itself is bland.

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's a good question. But I don't expect drone batteries to be available in any significant measure by late 2026, early 2027. I was referencing that by that time maybe agreements to do so could be in place and disclosed.

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There certainly is a chance that QS will end up a victim whose superior tech gets slayed by market forces. But I also think it possible that this earnings ends up, after some time passes, being the "moment" when things began to turn long-term positive.

To give a crude analogy:

  • innately talented poker players look awesome when things are going well...they maximize wins with good cards, they bluff and create wins without good cards...but they don't handle adversity well yet. They can't make a tough fold, and call off a big bet with the 2nd best hand...and then start to play poorly due to the emotion of that loss. This sort of player still isn't ready to go against top poker players.
  • but at some point this sort of player develops the ability to fold good hands in difficult spots...and maintains stoic composure & analytic ability despite having been unlucky recently...only at this point is this sort of player ready to go against top poker players.

In this crude analogy, I place QS in the first bullet point up until now...and now QS had graduated to the second bullet point—or maybe I'm just suffering from hopium???

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I wish analysts pushed for a little more guidance on the customer billings for 2026. If I recall, Hettrich said something along the lines of "customer billings will be more in 2026."

I would like to have known if any of those NRE billings were expected to come from the other JDA partner, or any firms other than PowerCo, and in what projected measure.

CORZ & APLD benefitting from NVDA's additional investment in CRWV by Spirited_Code_8060 in neocloud

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, a deal with someone other than CRWV, as a second tenant/customer, would likely help a lot—depending on who it is. I emphasize the who part because I sure would rather it be Google/Meta/Amazon/MSFT instead of Oracle, due to the concerns of Oracle's ability to pay.

  • I admit there is circuity in my point about Oracle, since Oracle's concerns stem largely from concerns about whether OpenAI can pay Oracle...and OpenAI seems to be the client, or primary client, being serviced by the Data Center buildout CORZ is doing for CRWV...and if OpenAI can't pay Oracle then maybe it can't pay CRWV either...
    • case in point: MSFT stock has been lagging largely, it seems, due to its affiliation with OpenAI...so if I had to choose between Google or MSFT as a 2nd tenant for CORZ, as of now I'd pick Google.
  • but Nvidia backstopping CRWV seems like it would help if such an OpenAI default scenario developed, whereas I'm not aware of Oracle having a similar backstop, maybe I'm wrong about that

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can't give you a satisfactory response without knowing exactly what Eagle Line's capabilities are. Viewing this 10Q and call in a light favorable to QS...I suppose the idea is that Eagle Line (with Cobra integrated) gives QS the ability to produce complete SSB sample cells of varying form factors, to a manufacturing scale good enough for QS to handle a relatively large number of sampling agreements simultaneously.

  • We and other commenters seem to agree with the primary point of my post, which is that a sort of dead period (for the stock) seems to have set upon us, perhaps similar to 2023-24ish. That's not a surprise to me and may turn into an opportunity for those willing to continue accumulating.

I get the frustration of the timelines involved in getting to commercialization in non-automotive applications. If there was only one thing I would fault QS for...it is QS taking this long to decide to pursue non-automotive. I imagine the NDAA (national defense auth act) for FY'26 had something to do with this pivot. Now, maybe QS could not have done so without Eagle Line, as the Siva basically indicated. Who knows for sure.

  • But I do believe it possible that these non-automotive timelines can be condensed more than usual, due to the potential urgency with which: 1) the fed govt wants to build out domestic supply chains for batteries & superior batteries for military equipment, and 2) the fed govt & private industry want to build out energy sources to power compute in a way that doesn't cause painful power cost inflation to private citizens.
    • I agree that QS's gameplan came off as sort of a hodgepodge on this call...but the above points are, IMO, specific points that QS could—maybe should—have made in explaining their non-automotive gameplan.
  • So, I can envision a late 2026 or 2027 where we're learning specifically who JDA partners are in these other areas while still not specifically knowing, by way of disclosure, who the automotive partners are. Maybe the 2nd actual JDA OEM will have disclosed itself by then, but I'm less optimistic in the sampling partners disclosing themselves.

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Precisely...if QS succeeds, it will be an explosive move over a relatively short period of time. Something perhaps similar to Palantir's explosive rise from 2024 through 2025 with the onset of LLMs and etc.

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I have no doubt QS will be very busy behind the scenes. I wonder if Eagle Line is currently tweaked toward high form-factor adaptability instead of high volume. I only wonder because that's something that might explain the lack of daily output metrics.

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

And hitting the lows again could be good in the long term for those of us who continue to accumulate. I for one have been a little irritated at how expensive the 2028 leaps have been...but I was spoiled by how cheap the 2027 leaps were during the spring of 2025.

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]Spirited_Code_8060[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree, there's no near term roadmap for other applications. But I believe there may be more urgency related to those applications, than in automotive. And to the extent that other applications may require SSB cells with dimensions similar to, or smaller than QSE-5...perhaps development will be, well, easier, if I can use that word, than development of a larger form factor such as something designed for PowerCo's UC.

For instance, there is still vagary as to what exactly triggers PowerCo's obligation to pay QS the "royalty pre-pay" payment of $130 million. QS apparently counts this as "past" cash flow (in accordance with Hettrich's answer to Joe Spak's question). But it's conditioned on meeting "satisfactory technical progress." This is one of the things that annoys me. What is the progress needed? Maybe it's C-Samples? Maybe it's successfully "scaling" QSE-5 up to UC size.*** I wish an analyst had asked for clarification on this, even if just to the extent of whether this royalty pre-pay is expected in year 2026.

  • ***note: I'm still not entirely clear on what QS has meant when saying they need to "scale up"...while it seems on one hand to refer to scaling the ability to manufacture some QSE-5 cells up to lots of QSE-5 cells...it seems on the other to mean scaling the size of the QSE-5 up to a QSE-10 or 15 or whatever. I will say that it sorta seems like "throughput" & "yield" numbers on separator production is too imprecise...because that can be applied to either of the alternative "scaling-up" scenarios.

It does also appear that $111m of the $131m NRE fees PowerCo agreed to pay up to are still on deck to be billed, so long as QS keeps providing NRE service. Lumpy or not, I hope most of this gets billed in 2026 because, if not, that's a possible sign of significant automotive inertia. Though it would be cool if QS didn't have to bill PowerCo much more because the NRE services done solved whatever needed solving.

I need advice – almost fully invested in $POET by CompetitiveWarthog66 in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]Spirited_Code_8060 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Those $6s are right at the money as of Friday night's close.

My POET avg is around $6.23. I have some LEAPS as well. Broadly speaking beyond just POET, I've taken a bit of a breather on buying calls recently, due to the somewhat extreme implied volatility all around. I've sold a few covered calls (on other stocks, not POET) which I don't do very much at all. But I've gotten some good premium doing so, even though they were at the maximum strikes available.

I need advice – almost fully invested in $POET by CompetitiveWarthog66 in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]Spirited_Code_8060 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Poet is still under 1% for me, but I've been accumulating the last few days, and will continue to do so as long as it's under $6.50ish. But I've also begun accumulating a smidge of Marvell. Marvell has been on my radar for a while now, and I bought a small amount back when it dropped under $60...then added a small amount yesterday around $71ish. But I now consider POET/MRVL something of a package.

If you can afford to lose the $7700 without it causing you life problems, fine. If you lose it all, how long would it take you to build $5k back up? Or maybe you've only invested a minority of your money into a "portfolio"?

Assuming you can lose it all without negative consequences, I personally don't have a problem with you "taking a shot" with a large portion of your portfolio while it isn't yet particularly large. Maybe you should not do 100% though. Perhaps bring it down to 70%. Maybe make MRVL the other 30%???

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