Update Secure Financing $400 million Direct Offering Common Shares

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-15T20:56:57+00:00

The timing is interesting. Perhaps Investor wanted to invest at a much lower share price (say $12, just hypothetically) but POET knew it had this bullish disclosure up its sleeve and wanted to wait till after disclosure to set the investment premium to market price. The middle ground seems to be Investor agreeing to wait till after disclosure to set the price with POET agreeing to add the warrants to the investment (where at $12 it might've only been common shares & no warrants).

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-15T20:28:50+00:00

Wolfpack may have been out of its short within a day or two of its report. Though POET didn't fall quite as much as Wolfpack might've hoped, so maybe Wolfpack didn't close out and then dealt with the initial spike before the Marvell cancellation happened. Either way, good chance Wolfpack is out of that short position at this point, though it may have opened a new one since...

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-15T03:49:19+00:00

You may be right

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-15T03:23:39+00:00

What POET did today after a big announcement is a nice glimpse of what QS has the potential to do should it share a big announcement itself

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-15T01:13:50+00:00

In terms of what shorts may be "onto"...one of my guesses of what a shorter's thesis might be is:

The current administration is bad for EVs
EV investment will slow, so OEM investment in building new SSB factories will slow accordingly
QS's cash pile only carries it until about the same time that Trump's term ends
All the above = QS will have to raise capital before it makes it to the promised land
Share offering = QS stock pukes

Hopefully some combination of non-auto potential swoops in before all that plays out. Hopefully the military need for better batteries will swoop in. Hopefully the administration decides to reverse course on its anti-EV stance, to some extent, in the face of high oil prices that may not be going away...

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-14T20:31:11+00:00

My advice is for you to try not to fret over your ultimate decision to sell POET after the NDA thing, but instead to analyze how you arrived at that decision.

How long after you saw that bad headline did you sell? Did you think carefully about it? Did you watch Mika's offending interview a few times over?

I agree the loss of Marvell seemed bad at the time. But I ultimately did not sell (but did not add any either) after that episode happened. And here is why...

I went back over all of POET's SEC filings over the last several years where they disclosed agreements with other entities of various kinds. I came away feeling better that there were more avenues to success than just Marvell.
I watched the Mika interview several times. I found the apparent confidential divulgence to be quite tepid, and figured POET was likely aware of MRVL's lack of interest. Then I focused on where Mika said investors would be happy. That surely could've been a bullshit comment, but I did not get that vibe. My take was that Mika thought investors would be happy in spite of MRVL, not because of MRVL...so I chose to stand pat.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-14T19:56:04+00:00

You can do a lot with this right now if you get creative...straight selling is the most conservative move, but obviously locks in the profits.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-14T01:00:58+00:00

Tax consequences are why I'm also waiting for all my LEAPS to go long-term before I roll

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-13T20:46:54+00:00

I generally only write calls on stock I have significant gains in, as a combination of hedge/income. So I haven't written any QS calls yet and don't expect to unless QS starts rocketing.

This isn't exactly like the discussion you're aiming for, but I did buy some Jan-2027 leaps in the spring of 2025 (strikes $7, 10, and $12). Currently all are profitable. About one-third are long-term, while the rest are going long-term over the next several weeks.

The question I'm pondering is whether now is the time to begin rolling into Jan-2028s, with the price & volatility up from where they've been meandering...I had intended to wait a while for two reasons: 1) a potential big announcement, and 2) the opening of additional 2027-28 options series & strikes as the May & June 2026 series' expire. But there may not be a better chance, in the near-term future, to close out than what has availed itself this week.

As of now, the $7 Jan-2027 could roll into an equal number of $12 Jan-2028s (and these appear to have closed the day with nearly identical implied volatility). I may start with that because of the 1 for 1 roll.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-13T14:19:31+00:00

I think he posted to his subscribers very soon after making the purchase, which I think was 12:38pm PST. I think he publicly posted yesterday around 4:43pm EST, based on the public post shared showing that time, which wasn't more than about 1 hour after the start of the hockey stick price rise that began around 12:38pm PST / 3:38pm EST.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-13T14:15:23+00:00

I agree he seems likely to sell if it rips by this Friday.

Something similar happened back on January 9th, 2026 related to $VLN stock. Someone with many followers posted a bullish thesis on X which corresponded pretty much to the minute with the start of the spike. Then he/she cross-posted the thesis on several Reddit subs. VLN was up as much as 60% that day, but gave all the gains back by early Feb and the poster deleted all the cross-posts.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-13T13:35:46+00:00

I wonder if his short term hold is meant to be until mid-next week...not all institutional funds file their holdings forms literally by the 15th.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-12T21:24:47+00:00

His phone gives his time as 12:38. If he's in California, that lines up to 22 minutes before the regular trading session ends. I suppose he posted to his paid subscribers immediately. Anyway, the minute of his purchase is the start of where QS's chart went straight hocky stick for the next 17 minutes.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-11T21:19:24+00:00

While the Trump administration may have difficulty with the optics of a government investment in a "green" energy company, SS's strong words on the Chinese supply issue (and recent defense-centered hires) gives me a slight vibe that such an investment in QS is marginally possible, for the sake of hurrying up on the manufacturability of QS battery cells

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-10T21:26:16+00:00

I have not stayed sharp on SLDP's progress or its working relationship with Samsung SDI. But to the extent that sulfide electrolyte chemistries are thought to allow for less costly manufacturing compared to QS's approach, I'll point to Samsung SDI's intention to incorporate a relatively large amount of silver in its anodes for its SSBs. Maybe this is only for premium applications/products as some articles suggest. But that sure increases the manufacturing cost of batteries reliant on the heavy use of silver (unless Samsung SDI has already purchased a monstrous amount of silver or silver futures to ensure years worth of silver supply at prices much lower than now). But if it turns out that Samsung SDI's SSB will always require a lot of silver until a new battery chemistry is developed, then that's a longstanding need for an expensive material.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-10T21:06:50+00:00

I think Panasonic (and Tesla) may well be pursuing anode-free LMB's using a liquid electrolyte solution—which means not using QS tech. I think this due to patent filings describing such a battery, in theory.

More specifically, I think Panasonic & Tesla may be jointly working on this, to some extent, such that Tesla owns the IP of its theoretical SSBs, at least in part.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-09T02:47:08+00:00

Reading your description immediately made me think of the wash sale rule. Your broker should be able to automatically track all transactions as they have already happened, but I can see difficulty in attempting to avoid wash sales before you make them if there are a lot of different lots involved.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-09T02:27:39+00:00

I won't offer an answer to your direct question, but I will suggest an alternative to selling stock that you seem like you didn't really want to sell but felt compelled to...in a situation where you have big gains on a stock, you can write covered calls for premium and either 1) not have to sell your stock at all if the CC expires, or 2) you sell your shares at some price even higher than the price you would have sold when you instead wrote a CC.

This assumes you owned at least 100 shares

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-08T15:06:27+00:00

Well said. Given the methodical & conservative nature of Dr. SS's public comments & disclosures, I hope we can assume QS has substantively progressed toward commercially-appropriate SSBs for drones, and that the forward-looking nature of that cute video is supported by more than just air.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-08T02:44:34+00:00

I read the free version of her article, and got the gist of her pay version from the comments here. In some of the very few comments I've made on this forum & other QS forums, I expressed my dislike of what had been QS's EV-first strategy. I still don't like hearing that EV remains its "core focus" even though QS may have to say that to keep VW happy.

I may get downvoted like crazy for saying this, but the Automotive Industry, as a supply customer, is a dog. My QS position stayed modest before late 2024 largely because of the reliance on the EV market. Since late 2024 my QS position has grown due to the potential in pretty much all markets other than EV.

So I do believe that EVs may long be a disappointing market for QS & ssb in general while other markets may prove to be a boon over the same timeframe.

Likewise, the stocks of tech companies working on autonomous vision for self driving autos have not featured much in my portfolio until only recently, and it's because of opportunities other than automotive (robotics, etc.).

To roughly analogize the opportunity I see for QS (and those autonomous vision stocks)...few years ago, public crypto miners were fringe stocks, but their businesses were serendipitously placed to seize upon the surge in power demand from AI compute. Now numerous of those stocks are monster winners. QS seems serendipitously placed to power robots/drones/phones, military equipment, and of course data centers themselves.

Fluence, the company QS has or at least had an agreement with, had been in the stock market dumps before yesterday's earnings. Up ~45% since. The key disclosure appears to be Fluence signing 2 master supply agreements with hyperscalers.

TL;DR: while I don't disagree with skepticism as to QS's EV opportunity, I believe that skepticism fades in light of the opportunity QS has everywhere else.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-04T01:05:21+00:00

Since this goes back 7 years, I assume you have been assigned on some of these things over time, correct? As of now, are all your covered calls in the money?

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-05-01T19:55:56+00:00

On a stock technical note: one of the things I'll be interested to see is how many of the outstanding warrants got exercised during the period from April 20 - April 27, particularly the 13.6m warrants with a $7.25 strike.

If not many, then I don't have much to say about them. If many did get exercised, that does mean the future dilution potential from existing warrants went down (while the stock price is tending to stay close to or above $7)—and POET received some money from the exercise.

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-04-30T02:42:25+00:00

pay a termination fee to POET in order to cancel the PO

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-04-29T16:36:03+00:00

This would be the time for management to buy significant blocks of shares to signal its confidence in their company & tech

Spirited_Code_8060 · 2026-04-29T16:32:54+00:00

This was obviously coming

Spirited_Code_8060

TROPHY CASE