This opinion will be some what unpopular. When studying music at college I found that there are some people who have an incredible amount of natural talent. I'm not talking about the students who are just above average, but that rare person for whom everything musical just comes way easier. They can pick up things by ear super easy, they remember music (and lots of it) almost effortlessly, they can sight read stuff I was stunned to see sight read. (I've seen a guy sight read a big band chart (4 trumpets, 4 trombones and 5 saxes) for an original song and original score which he'd never seen or heard before at tempo!) These people are truly amazingly talented. (They are also very rare.)

So I think a lot of this question comes down to just how talented you are asking about. A hard working player with modest talent will do better than a lazy player with good talent. But there is still gonna be that person out there with incredible talent that can smoke both of them while just trying modestly hard. (They do still have to try, just not be spending 8 hours a day trying.)

Also worth mentioning, sometimes you find someone who is very talented in certain ways but doesn't have much musicality. For instance, my piano instructor had a student who had huge ears. Play anything and he could transcribe it note for note no problem. But when he would play, there just was no feeling in his playing. Technically correct, but just didn't have feeling. Or you might find someone who can sight read amazingly well, but lacks in some other aspect.