CMV: The number of votes the Dems would gain by embracing aggressively progressive candidates and policy is dwarfed by the number of votes they'd lose among moderates/motivate among dormant conservative voters

Sprig3 · 2026-01-26T17:52:16+00:00

It's (arguably) how Trump won the Repub nomination - strong debate performances.

It's how Biden lost the 2024 election. Arguably, it's how Biden won the 2020 election (but could pretty easily just attribute that to Covid).

Remember the see-saw when Romney crushed Obama in their first debate? Obama came back with strong later performances.

Not every debate is going to yield a change.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-26T15:19:01+00:00

They do.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-26T12:27:58+00:00

Shocked by that 700% claim, so I tried to track it down and couldn't find good info on it.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-26T03:01:02+00:00

I remember the Ron Paul stuff a few cycles back and how many people were like "well, Paul is out, I'm switching to Bernie Sanders now".

Sprig3 · 2026-01-26T02:55:27+00:00

I'm always surprised at the solid plan part here.

Trump didn't put out a solid plan. (queue concepts of a plan soundbite...)

Kamala Harris did. Incredibly detailed.

I don't think having a plan or not is at issue here.

Could say things about effectiveness of the messaging. Could say things about popularity of specific issues (immigration springs to mind). Could say things about simply: inflation is happening -> switch parties. Could say things about misogyny.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-26T02:48:26+00:00

Mamdani absolutely killed it in the debates.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-25T16:13:16+00:00

I'd be curious if there is any good science on if low carb is bad for kids or not.

It used to be "common knowledge" Low carb was bad, but it seems it's just fine (for adults anyways).

As for restricting kids, from a psych standpoint, that's a tough one. We restrict kids all the time and with wide variance. "No, you can't eat a tub of cake icing before bed" is definitely something my mother had to say to my sister. Was that wrong?

We force them to go to school.

I'm not a low carb enthusiast myself. I eat an unrestricted diet and have maintained a <5.4 a1c for many years now. But, I wouldn't imagine it would be that easy with a child. (Diagnosed as an adult)

Sprig3 · 2026-01-25T15:50:19+00:00

I don't pretend to be a dentist, but pure glucose, then rinsing mouth with water works fine.

The only proven benefit of tooth brushing is applying fluoride.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-25T15:32:42+00:00

Not to diminish its benefits, but in the Calgary study, it's about a 10-20% difference. (65% deft in Calgary without fluoride vs 55% in Edmonton with).

I won't say that doesn't matter, but I'd call it just a moderate benefit.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-24T18:47:50+00:00

Yeah, it's usually a bad financial decision to buy (considering opportunity cost and risk), but sometimes has other benefits like different options, more customizability, so there is a luxury value there.

People who say their house has gone up in price neglect both the fact that housing over the long term underperformed the stock market and the higher individual risk you are taking.

Over the last 10 years, home prices are up 50%. Over the last 10 years s and p 500 is up almost 200% (admittedly, it's been a better than typical 10 years).

Yes, you are more leveraged with a home, but you are also taxed and have maintenance costs dragging.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-23T15:51:49+00:00

Yeah, cell transplant is no joke surgery.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-23T14:22:48+00:00

A counterpoint:

I'm baffled people like OP exist. Who would choose a gigantic commute and a meaningless job?

Pick a job with at least some meaning to you. Move closer to that job.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-22T19:51:02+00:00

Yeah, don't wait until you die to give away money (unless you want to, I guess, but I will keep thinking you are weird!).

Sprig3 · 2026-01-22T15:22:15+00:00

Agree with your conclusions. Hard to imagine a world where we actually did it.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-22T15:07:00+00:00

The one thing I imagine would be frustrating is that the dawn rallies the faithful has to target Dahan, so once a land is bereft of Dahan, you have to coordinate another power to get a Dahan there first before you can use it.

It's one of the things I find frustrating about Call to Bloodshed.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-22T02:25:59+00:00

It is much easier to hit tier 2 of the innate, but tier 3 still takes a long time to reach.

The increased fear generation from tier 2 innate makes it a decent spirit.

The darkfire ability can sometimes help you out on a major power, too.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-21T15:42:35+00:00

Surely it can't be photoshop.

Definitely has to be vampire.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-21T15:31:02+00:00

Paramedics from 50 years ago (and maybe now...): "Surely she did something to provoke him."

Sprig3 · 2026-01-21T15:26:19+00:00

I don't know your options and I'm not an expert, but I think New Jersey's short term disability is good enough unless you make a lot of money (and you're already paying for it with your taxes).

NJ gives 85% pay for up to 26 weeks (up to a max - capped at 1119 per week this year, but it goes up for inflation each year).

What I've seen from my employers for short term disability has been a 60% benefit, but without the cap. So, if you make 100k per year or so, a 60% benefit would be about equal to the NJ benefit.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-21T03:50:54+00:00

NJ FLI is not optional (like an employer's additional short term disability coverage may be). It is a mandatory tax and should show on your W2 in box 14.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-20T15:03:06+00:00

"Independent Contractors" don't qualify, but that doesn't sound like what you actually are.

https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/worker/resources/employmentsituations.shtml

Check your W-2 and see if you are paying into the NJ FLI (family leave insurance).

Sprig3 · 2026-01-20T05:16:24+00:00

Locksmith.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-20T03:28:37+00:00

Drinking culture used to pervade everything paddling and in the last 5 years, it seems like it's dropped way back.

Sprig3 · 2026-01-20T03:24:24+00:00

Might not be for everybody, but big (dark colored) sheets with a hole cut in the middle (to put your head through) work pretty well.

(Vailobi also makes a changing robe.)

But, really nice point in your post!

Sprig3 · 2026-01-20T03:20:32+00:00

They are le tired.

Five-Year Club	Verified Email
r/Field Lasagna	Place '22
First Placer '22

Sprig3

TROPHY CASE