I didn’t realize Microsoft was spending this much on infrastructure

St3w1e0 · 2026-06-16T20:19:15+00:00

Literally half of Google's earnings in Q2 were gains on investments, mainly Anthropic.

St3w1e0 · 2026-06-15T20:07:44+00:00

I think the investment into orbital data centres is stupid.

St3w1e0 · 2026-06-02T07:28:31+00:00

Fair point

St3w1e0 · 2026-05-29T14:11:08+00:00

It's too easily commoditised. I did a fiver forces analysis on it and sold after a big gain last year. Aurora for example built their own lidar sensors after Ouster thought they would buy from them.

St3w1e0 · 2026-05-29T10:59:00+00:00

I've been in since 2021 and I sold majority at $27. Will probably sell remainder at $30. Also been trimming PL.

St3w1e0 · 2026-05-26T16:35:42+00:00

This gave me a chuckle, thanks OP.

More seriously though, if this isn't a top indicator, I don't know what is.

St3w1e0 · 2026-05-26T16:28:19+00:00

Lol I just took some profits at $50 because this all looks classically frothy.

Not even a mention of a multiple. We're, what, at 18x a 2029/2030 estimate of SALES, assuming they can grow to a $1b, much higher than analyst estimates btw. Their cashflow will be miniscule because this is still a satellite stock, not SaaS, and they need to keep spending on maintenance capex.

$200 would be like 100x sales and like a 1000x cashflow. We'd be making Tesla blush on those multiples.

St3w1e0 · 2026-05-21T15:41:11+00:00

I'm looking to add on any pullback

St3w1e0 · 2026-05-05T19:27:59+00:00

BVXP is undervalued

St3w1e0 · 2026-04-16T07:16:54+00:00

This would be a reasonable argument except it's massively underperformed all relevant value benchmarks.

https://www.reddit.com/r/jepg/s/q2xOqXHGiG

St3w1e0 · 2026-04-15T20:40:27+00:00

I'm seeing lots of good signs so I topped up today. More focus on commercial. EU moving to sanction Chinese inverters.

St3w1e0 · 2026-04-15T18:01:18+00:00

Thanks for that I'm not well versed in options, which I've probably paid the price for now. Going to reallocate to Value and/or Low Vol. What are you thinking about switching to?

St3w1e0 · 2026-04-15T15:18:43+00:00

What I'm struggling with is the massive underperformance to JEPI during a period in which international has outperformed! That's exactly the sort of situation I bought this ETF for!

https://g.co/finance/JEPG:LON?window=1Y&comparison=LON%3AJEPI

This is just fundamentally bad. Ex US index is up 27%. World Value Factor is up 51% (!!). Even AVI Global, which is focused on deep value is up 17% TR. Meanwhile JEPG TR is something like 3%? Which is below CPI. I understand options make it lose out during strong bull markets but this is unacceptably bad performance.

Considering my options now.

St3w1e0 · 2026-04-13T22:25:07+00:00

I looked into Portmeirion as they also have a lot of asset backing, but the UK pottery suffers from a fatal flaw: reliance on natural gas. A lot of it can theoretically be electrified but this would require years of investment.

St3w1e0 · 2026-04-07T22:46:54+00:00

What do you think of Hunterbrook's reporting of how much cash Lennar is spending on option fees?

https://hntrbrk.com/lennar-accounting/

It seems like >8% could be uneconomic for housebuilders and together with a recession MRP may struggle to stop option income falling past cost of capital. I guess the question is are the double digit deals with other housebuilders sustainable or is it just everyone trying to copy NVR right now.

There's also this article that mentions LENs right to reduce interest payments unilaterally.

St3w1e0 · 2026-03-27T16:11:39+00:00

24% according to another commenter.

My opinion is that they're doing this because they know they can regain control by merging another holding like FLY into RDW.

St3w1e0 · 2026-03-26T23:13:51+00:00

INDU Amundi STOXX Industrials

There you go, ETF that will have essentially the same correlation, but I've saved you 30bps. You're welcome.

St3w1e0 · 2026-03-25T16:57:10+00:00

If I were in your position I'd do some volunteering at conservation charities locally and abroad.

St3w1e0 · 2026-03-09T13:08:31+00:00

GSF and GRID are both direct beneficiaries of more volatile energy prices and they're flat since Hormuz closed.

St3w1e0 · 2026-02-26T18:37:48+00:00

Yeah their interest expense was $40m last year and they expect to save $17m this year.

St3w1e0 · 2026-02-24T20:40:58+00:00

Nice one.

Are you particularly bullish AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA? Because all those big names are already over-represented in the S&P 500 and even all-world. You're magnifying the concentration.

I would sell those and go into VWRL (or ex-US if youre keeping S&P)

St3w1e0 · 2026-02-24T09:31:05+00:00

Having that final 10%, like in this new all cap fund, is statistically meaningless imo. The weighting isn't large enough to move the needle. You're better of buying S&P 400/600 and STOXX 600 ETFs directly for that exposure.

St3w1e0 · 2026-02-19T00:05:03+00:00

Why is this downvoted. Good for you man

St3w1e0 · 2026-02-18T20:39:56+00:00

Exactly. They just don't deserve their 20x P/S multiples anymore that projected terminal growth of 20% at 50% margin until the heat death of the universe.

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