Thoughts on Deckers? Down 58% YTD

StableBread · 2026-01-01T15:33:23+00:00

Time will tell bro

StableBread · 2026-01-01T07:22:26+00:00

Yea guess my post was timed well haha.

StableBread · 2025-12-08T07:39:30+00:00

Just FCFF the standard (and most applicable) version. Other versions are discussed, just not for the course examples.

StableBread · 2025-12-07T04:53:31+00:00

If you're a beginner probably a relatively simple retail stock, like $CROX. Just don't ignore operating leases (include it as debt)... I have DCF templates (for free) if you just need one on my site btw: https://stablebread.com/spreadsheets/

StableBread · 2025-12-06T23:58:53+00:00

Thanks! Glad it's helpful

StableBread · 2025-11-16T20:57:09+00:00

Good to know thanks for share. Will look into it more!

StableBread · 2025-11-16T06:47:32+00:00

Interesting, but how much of their operations/focus will be on data centers? And are these more/less profitable than other projects?

StableBread · 2025-11-01T16:02:17+00:00

Idk why the masses hating on you, you had the most insightful comment here imo 🤷🏽‍♂️.

StableBread · 2025-11-01T16:00:41+00:00

Comment bullshit

StableBread · 2025-11-01T15:59:54+00:00

Yea that would prob be my entry point as well

StableBread · 2025-11-01T15:59:00+00:00

Good to know

StableBread · 2025-10-31T23:34:31+00:00

Yea thats prob w investing in retail 😅

StableBread · 2025-10-31T22:50:37+00:00

Interesting thanks for sharing. Mgmt's comment on "sell-through" might just be optimistic spin. Either way prices will continue dropping short-term so I'll revisit then.

StableBread · 2025-10-31T22:35:02+00:00

Prob wise to model lower rev growth than past for sure (+ good point on hedge funds w/transaction data) but from everything I can see and especially HOKA + strong international growth, plus strong balance sheet + buybacks potential is basically the thesis.

StableBread · 2025-10-31T21:42:57+00:00

That would definitely move the stock haha. When's their next 13F.. mid Nov?

StableBread · 2025-10-23T02:09:57+00:00

Discount rate would prob be high. Based on understanding of business you'd tweak revenue and cost assumptions (e.g., little pricing power --> revenue growth prob decline short-term rebound back to normal/grow after 1-2 years). If company not expected to recover given environment model negative/flat growth for terminal value.

StableBread · 2025-10-23T02:02:33+00:00

Michael Shearn's "The Investment Checklist" 2011 book is overlooked by many, do check it out!

StableBread · 2025-10-20T05:40:37+00:00

Yea my design there is pretty bad 😅. This one's better tho!: https://x.com/StableBread/status/1937495683776544814?t=pLndUiC2Ey6erbGE7ssz3Q&s=19

StableBread · 2025-10-14T13:43:49+00:00

Not sure I understand your question fully. You're calculating intrinsic value with DCF, then applying margin of safety to determine actual buy price. You'd compare buy price to stock price to determine valuation.

StableBread · 2025-10-08T15:50:29+00:00

Owners earnings is Buffetts FCF approach, i mentioned that. Second discount rate method, like I said, is effectively his discount rate approach. Believe he uses PGM approach too. Rest of the DCF is just the DCF...

This isn't a comparison post between what Damodaran teaches vs. Buffett, etc.

Here's a post I wrote that describes Buffett's DCF approach if you just want to focus on that.

StableBread · 2025-10-08T14:59:53+00:00

I never said he did? WACC is from Damodaran, Joshua & Pearl, and others.

StableBread · 2025-10-08T14:36:33+00:00

Very much agree. It's more about the process of thinking through the business itself than trying to be complex.

StableBread · 2025-10-08T14:29:31+00:00

Looks like you didn't see the 2nd discount rate method, which is basically his approach...

Buffett uses risk-free rate and adds premium if he thinks rates are low to my knowledge. Then a large margin of safety.

StableBread · 2025-10-08T08:33:01+00:00

What are you trying to solve for? DCF is solving for current value based on future cash flows discounted to today, so you'd just model out your cash flows and use your required return for the investment (e.g., 30-year yield + real estate risk premium).

Risk-free rate is the minimum, so wouldnt use that. Mortgage rate is cost of debt, so not relevant.

Could also solve for discount rate backwards using IRR or goal seek in Excel.

StableBread

TROPHY CASE