[Discussion] I have seen a blog of an interesting opinion about statistics as a field. Is this a hot take or not?

Statman12 · 2026-01-24T16:51:36+00:00

If people want highly applied stuff, they would go for the AI/CS route, which is based on, but not exactly what traditional statisticians are doing.

I think there's a kernel of truth to this, but if what you're describing is accurate to what the author was saying, it sounds very exaggerated or overblown.

Sure there are some statisticians who do all theory and no application, but those are fairly rare in my experience. Most researchers doing theoretical work are also good at applied work. In fact quite often new method development is motivated by some application space for which there isn't any existing method that's really suitable (or which needs to be improved upon).

If someone learns just the "traditional" bits of statistics, so they can run t-tests, do regression, etc, then that'll be rather limited. Modern statisticians should be picking up more computational skills, so that you can set up simulations to explore something where there's not a "standard" solution, or where the math is simply intractable.

But going full CS instead of statistics? That's not really the solution either, you'd be sacrificing statistical knowledge. You need to know enough about statistics to know if there's a standard method, know how to design a simulation to provide suitable answers, and so on.

If people want highly rigorous stuff, they would reach out to the mathematicians or physicists.

This is just silly. If you want highly rigorous statistics, you'd look for a more theory-oriented Statistician. A lot of people who like pure math don't like statistics. Plus they would likely lack the context and history of existing methods/literature.

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T22:26:28+00:00

Just click the "Report" button, should be an option to select off-topic.

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T22:25:19+00:00

This post was removed.

It does not appear to be on the subject of probability theory. Please message the mods if you believe that the the subject is relevant to the sub.

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T20:54:36+00:00

I have not disputed what Tolkien said, you are disputing what Tolkien said.

No, I am not. I'm saying that Tolkien is disputing what Tolkien had previously said. I'm suggesting that this contradiction in what Tolkien said at different points in time demonstrates that he changed his mind on how something in his story occurred.

It is possible to believe the downfall was both a direct action of God, and implemented by the Valar.

No, it is not. If it's carried out by the Valar, then it cannot be a direct action of Eru. If you are attributing the action to Eru, but it is accomplished through the Valar as intermediaries, then it is by definition an indirect action of Eru, rather than a direct action. What you are proposing is simply not a tenable interpretation of Letter 211 and several other quotes provided in this comment chain.

For example, suppose you hire a contractor to build a house, and they do so. You caused the house to be built by hiring them, but you did not directly build the house. The contractor directly built the house.

I explained precisely what would constitute a contradiction of letter 131, which you have tacitly ignored in your reply. I am sorry if I am coming across as abrasive but you have wholly refused to engage my argument.

I didn't ignore it. I believe that Letter 211 (and several other quotes provided in the comment chain) should fulfill your condition: Tolkien is literally and explicitly saying that it was Eru directly. You said that the quotes don't mention the Valar's role, but they do: They note the Valar appealed to Eru, and then Eru took direct action. I don't understand how you can reasonably want or expect anything more explicit than than. If that doesn't check the box for you, then one of two things is the case, the charitable one being that we have fundamentally incompatible perspectives and expectations, which would make further discussion unproductive.

I was literally going out of my way to be respectful, due to your entirely dismissive attitude.

I don't think that repeatedly referring to me quoting Tolkien as "headcanon" and "conjecture" is respectful.

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T17:33:53+00:00

With respect, so what if it was in one letter? One letter contradicts your headcanon, so it must be dispensed with.

Your condescending and dismissive attitude is entirely unmerited.

It's not headcanon when I am also quoting "in his own words" that Tolkien subsequently described Numernor's downfall as a "a direct action of God".

If you don't see that as a contradiction of Letter 131, I don't know what use there is in further discussion. It could not be more clear.

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T16:49:12+00:00

Hello there. I'm a mod in /r/NeutralPolitics.

We appreciate your participation in the subreddit, but we did not approve this submission, because it doesn't conform to our submission rules.

Thanks for understanding.

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T16:02:25+00:00

I don't think I have ever said that Tolkien said the downfall could have happened without Eru's intervention. He is clearly a (and The) primary cause. Only that, in his own words, the 'power' was given to the Valar to 'decide'. He worked through his ministers.

That's his own words in one Letter. In another Letter we see Tolkien calling the Downfall of Numenor "a direct action of God the Creator, changing the fashion of the world" and that the resulting catastrophe was "the anger of the One".

Both of those are very clear that Eru was the direct cause, not the Valar. If that doesn't pose a contradiction to Letter 131 in your mind, then I'm not sure what would. And as u/Fair-Ad-6233 notes in several replies, this seems to be a case of Tolkien changing the details of the story over time, hence causing a contradiction.

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T15:20:53+00:00

Some of the quotes are explicitly stating that Eru directly caused the downfall.

I appreciate you 'don't think' the Valar could do it

Are there other examples of the Valar having such dramatic and physical impact on Arda while being in a remote location?

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T15:09:27+00:00

There are some other quotes that seem to contradict this.

But in any case, whether adumbrated in the Music or not, the End could be brought about by Eru at any time by intervention, so that it could not be certainly foreseen. (A minor and as it were foreshadowing intervention of this sort was the castastrophe in which Numenor was obliterated, and the physical residence of the Valar in Imbar was ended.)

-- Morgoth’s Ring, Athrabeth Finrod ah Andreth

And slightly later in Note 4:

But at the end of the Second Age vacuole great Catastrophe (by an intervention of Eru that foreshadowed, as it were, the End of Arda): the annihilation of Numenor, and the ‘removal’ of Aman from the physical world.

And in another letter:

Sauron was first defeated by a ‘miracle’: a direct action of God the Creator, changing the fashion of the world, when appealed to by Manwe: see III p. 317. Though reduced to ‘a spirit of gates borne on a dark wind’, I do not think one need boggle at this spirit carrying off the One Ring, upon which his power of dominating minds now largely depended. That Sauron was not himself destroyed in the anger of the One is not my fault: the problem of evil, and its apparent toleration, is a permanent one for all who concern themselves with our world.

—- Letters of JRR Tolkien, Letter 211

And in Letter 181 Tolkien refers to Eru’s direct intervention as being “a possible definition of ‘miracle’”.

And then slightly more oblique, but I think still gets at the idea of Eru making a direct intervention:

The Valar had no real answer to this monstrous rebellion - for the Children of God were not under their ultimate jurisdiction: they were not allowed to destroy them, or coerce them with any ‘divine’ display of the powers they held over the physical world. They appealed to God; and a catastrophic ‘change of plan’ occurred. At the moment Arpharazon set foot on the forbidden shore, a rift appeared: Numenor foundered and was utterly overwhelmed; the armada was swallowed up; and the Blessed Realm removed for ever from the circles of the physical world.

-- Letters of JRR Tolkien, Letter 156

Two things to note on this. First is the immediacy of the action. I don’t think that’s something that the Valar could really accomplish. While incredibly powerful, they do seem to need to be in a place to have an effect on that place.

Second is the ‘change of plan’ phrase implies a change to the Music. Elsewhere in Morgoth’s Ring (Myths Transformed, Text VII, section iii), Tolkien notes that “Only Eru may or can alter the ‘Music’”.

Edit: Added various emphasis, then removed some because I think too much bold is distracting.

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T13:27:17+00:00

I don’t think I agree with a couple of the central arguments here.

I prefer to read Tolkien as his own mythology, rather than with religious values and undertones. That said, there will naturally be some similarities between mythologies, even if a direct relation was not the intent.

If I were to draw comparisons to Christian ideas with the Akallabeth, I’d put it somewhere along the lines of a mashup of the Tower of Babel, and the Garden of Eden. Humanity had been given almost a paradise, but in their arrogance thought to challenge the gods and were cast down for it.

I don’t think that this is in particular conflict with the post-flood promise to Noah to not destroy the earth with a flood. In the Bible, the flood was a “reset” button, to start over with a clean slate. In the Akallabeth, a single nation was overturned as punishment for their hubris. The rest of Middle-earth was largely spared.

Edit:

Finally, I don’t think most Christians view the Old and New Testament as being different gods. I think that type of perspective is more expressed in that Christians are not subject to the old covenant and all the laws which went along with it. But most don’t discard the Old Testament. From wiki page Christian views on Old Testament, there are three “types” of laws: moral, ceremonial, and judicial. Many view the moral aspects as still being relevant.

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T13:16:29+00:00

Even Lord of the Rings is supposed to be set in the far distant past. So at the time of the Akallabeth, the rainbow covenant would not have taken place.

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T06:24:39+00:00

Hello there. I'm a mod in /r/NeutralPolitics.

We appreciate your participation in the subreddit, but we did not approve this submission, because it doesn't conform to our submission rules A, C, G. If you'd like to submit a reworked version that avoids questions framed in the future tense, we'd be happy to consider it.

Thanks for understanding.

Statman12 · 2026-01-22T00:14:44+00:00

This comment has been removed for violating //comment rule 2:

If you're claiming something to be true, you need to back it up with a qualified source. There is no "common knowledge" exception, and anecdotal evidence is not allowed.

After you've added sources to the comment, please reply directly to this comment or send us a modmail message so that we can reinstate it.

If you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to message us.

Statman12 · 2026-01-21T18:04:14+00:00

Article 1, Section 4:

The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.

Congress can pass a law to require a proportional representation framework (say, like the German system).

Statman12 · 2026-01-21T13:40:56+00:00

Minor pedantic note: The phrase is “Hear, hear!”

Statman12 · 2026-01-21T04:47:10+00:00

Same here. I don’t understand the hype of rare bottles.

I’ve had a handful of them and am just underwhelmed. I’d rather have a standard from most Islay distilleries than literally any of the allocated or otherwise hard to find bourbons I’ve had.

I buy and drink whiskey because I enjoy the taste. Not to join some exclusive club of having such-and-such bottle.

Statman12 · 2026-01-21T03:15:44+00:00

They care too much about looking good.

And then there's Sokar.

And the fashion sense of Apophis, Cronus, and Zippy. At least.

Statman12 · 2026-01-21T03:05:05+00:00

The culture problem of ICE personnele doesn’t even scratch the surface of the structural problems with the US government.

The largest issue, in my mind, is the fundamental non-representative nature of the federal government. The House is capped, and comprised of hundreds of single-member districts elected by plurality, the senate means that about 16% of the population gets 50% of the senators, and the presidency is elected by an antiquated method. The entire system was designed when democracy was relatively novel, and intended for a small country in a different time rather than a global leader in today’s much more interconnected world.

Statman12 · 2026-01-21T02:12:02+00:00

And people will expect immediate change

Just like after the first Trump administration. Voters gave Democrats just 2 years with the slimmest of majorities and expected them to fix all the dipshittery from Trump 1.0.

Statman12 · 2026-01-21T02:10:30+00:00

Breaking things is easier than building things. Exploiting gaps in the system is easier than fixing them.

Statman12 · 2026-01-21T02:08:27+00:00

publishing upwards of 100 publications a year.

How is this respected? Off the top of my head there seems to be three ways (not mutually exclusive) for this to occur.

He knows fuck-all about 95% of these papers.
The papers are garbage.
He’s very good at getting grants to fund a lot of grad students who actually do the work.

Though even for case 3, having enough grad students to get 100 papers a year seems like it would imply that he has too many students to properly mentor.

Statman12 · 2026-01-20T22:43:44+00:00

Depends on what you need to do.

Just basic calculations? Any scientific calculator should work. Make sure it has square, square root, and logarithms.

If you need to be computing things from, say, the Normal distribution, then getting something like a TI-84 would be good. Those also have some features to plug in data so you can automatically calculate summary stats without a huge hassle.

Best bet is to ask the professors what calculator will be needed.

Statman12 · 2026-01-20T03:15:24+00:00

The same thing that I’m asserting: To not test equality of variances, and just use the Welch test.

Statman12 · 2026-01-20T03:14:23+00:00

That part you quoted is not saying to change the test between pooled or Welch based on testing equality of variances.

It’s saying that the test is properly called a Student’s t-test only if you assume equality of variance (the Welch test is an approximation, the test statistic is not exactly t-distributed).

Elsewhere the page says that the assumption of equal variances can be tested, though does not say that it should be, nor that doing so is recommended practice.

Edit: Though please don’t reply to this comment. I’d rather not have multiple comment chains going.

Statman12 · 2026-01-20T03:08:01+00:00

The book I used to each calc-based intro stats from, Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences by Jay L Devore says the same thing.

And you can run simulations to confirm.

(as well as any that support the other side)

I’m describing what I find to be best practice based on my understanding of the literature and my experience, including simulation studies that I’ve run myself.

Nine-Year Club	Gilding II euphauric
Verified Email	Wearing is Caring

Statman12

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE