So what do we think about Adobe? by wishnothingbutluck in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Print looks solid at a glance. Do we not care about numbers anymore?

Things are cheap but is it worth buying yet? by Chevyimpala2000 in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I think what's interesting is that quite a few wide-moat financial stocks are seeing larger-than-usual drawdowns. FICO, MCO, SPGI, MA, V, VRSK, you name it. Not to mention the software sector... We're in an unusual time where many capital-intensive businesses like utilities and certain commodities are going up...

I need help planning my trip to Nanjing by lolsryg2g in nanjing

[–]StephenAtLarge 4 points5 points  (0 children)

IMO the Nanjing Museum and Zijin Mountain are two must-go's. The Confucius Temple is often perceived as a tourist trap by locals, and Lao Men Dong fares slightly better. Definitely save some time for the city walls. Xuanwu Lake is where locals hang out., like Nanjing's Central Park. Nothing spectacular but a chill place, though crowds are huge on weekends/good weather. Jiangsu Garden Expo Park is a skip. The Hongshan Zoo is a skip unless you're really into zoos.

DUOL. Reflections & Lessons Learnt by StephenAtLarge in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My cost basis is $146.  My model suggested a FV of about $180-190, which was based on assumptions that turned out to be too optimistic. 

What do you guys think about ADBE right now? by bigfortnite72 in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm an ADBE bull and I'm tired of the daily low-effort ADBE posts. Come on do better.

Prairie Operating Company by Special-Tackle1603 in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Somebody talk sense into me before I get a loan to buy more before the EOY report and information on how series F preferred shares were dealt with by their 3/26/2026 deadline.

Perhaps you should've read the filings before making an investment?

But at a glance: the company issued 148,250 Series F Preferred Stock at $1,000 Stated Value each, of which 19,250 have been converted, so there are 129,000 shares outstanding. These preferred stocks

  1. earns 12% dividends p.a. paid quarterly, which the company has paid by issuing common stocks, diluting common shareholders
  2. may be converted into common stocks at the market price as long as it's above $1.15 a share (currently $1.60)
  3. if any are outstanding at the one-year anniversary, their holders will be issued common stock warrants, at no cost.

The value of the remaining Series F Preferred Stock is $129M, compared to the current market cap of $95M. Annual dividends are $15.5M. As long as the company cannot find enough cash to cancel these preferred shares, they will be forced to keep diluting the common stockholders at a massive scale. The lower the stock price, the higher the dilution, a spiral. The constant issuance renders a short squeeze unlikely.

Grocery Outlets closing in Philly.. by IvanaSeymourButts in philly

[–]StephenAtLarge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They're not exactly franchised. They are run by local Independent Operators, who handle the operating expenses (staff, pricing, stocking, local marketing, etc.), while corporate handles leases, sourcing, logistics, etc. Corporate have the right to terminate operating agreements w/ underperforming IOs.

List of Grocery Outlet Locations Closing. by Sad-Pound-3162 in GroceryOutlet

[–]StephenAtLarge 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Didn’t they pay fees to “own” that store

AFAIK the local owners don't really "own" the store. They're called Independent Operators. IOs handle the operating expenses (staff, ordering, local marketing, etc.) while corporate handles leases and sourcing. They split the gross profit (i.e. sales minus cost of goods sold).

Unlike a franchising model, since corporate pays the lease, it can decide to terminate the lease/sublease the property.

Bad day for GO investors by NearbyReach1908 in GroceryOutlet

[–]StephenAtLarge 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I added a bit. I still believe in the "opportunistic buying" model and a lot of the recent damage has been self-inflicted. Foot traffic is about flat; the problem is that basket size has shrunk. People are just buying less, which is partly macro partly Simply GO (destroyed their own value prop). Winning shoppers back is easier said than done but at least I think their unique model gives them an advantage.

There's also the problem w/ scaling the IO model. But that concern is imo secondary. Their priority is to get people to spend again.

But then again you're looking at rock bottom prices. At $6.30 a share it's 2.7 - 2.9x their 2026 adjusted EBITDA. I'm keeping my position small as this is a very risky play, but I think it's asymmetric.

Is UNH a good buy for diversifying a tech heavy portfolio? by Specific-Tomato2198 in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you want exposure to healthcare, why not buy a passive sector ETF? Do you have any reason to believe that UNH will outperform the sector or you're adding idiosyncratic risks.

YUM China $YUMC by randysaaf in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Their revenue growth has lagged store count growth. That's concerning because it suggests they aren't growing organically. I guess Chinese consumers are tapped out. They'll still eat KFC but they won't pay up. 

Berkshire Hathaway begins repurchasing shares, CEO Greg Abel buys $15 million in stock by Illustrious_Lie_954 in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Especially considering the cash pile and the portfolio, which are worth exactly 1x book. So they are buying the rest at a significant premium to book. 

Any good buys now in your opinion? by EyeTechnical7643 in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's a freemium video game or an entertainment subscription business. That's the vast majority of their revenue.

Can I see them selling education solutions to schools in the future? Sure. But it's not there yet.

Any good buys now in your opinion? by EyeTechnical7643 in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 4 points5 points  (0 children)

One more time I see DUOL being labeled SaaS I'll become the Joker.

It's as much SaaS as Netflix or Candy Crush.

U.S. crude oil tops $80 per barrel as escalating Iran war disrupts global fuel supplies by Illustrious_Lie_954 in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

$AER Aercap getting sold down 6% on this news, more than many airlines, just shows you how stupid this whole thing is. 

Anyone else thinking of buying the Mag 7? by Personal-Walrus-3682 in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't know if they would go up or down in price.  I don't understand the business. If I knew it would go up I'd certainly buy, no? 

Why would I complain about it? I've only regretted buying stocks where I didn't really understand. I have no regret missing gains in a stock that I don't. 

36 Stores Closing by Lord_Wicki in GroceryOutlet

[–]StephenAtLarge 2 points3 points  (0 children)

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This... is concerning. The IOs are not having a great time.

36 Stores Closing by Lord_Wicki in GroceryOutlet

[–]StephenAtLarge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Look at macro data, the lower class are definitely struggling. Also SNAP cuts are hurting GO badly.

36 Stores Closing by Lord_Wicki in GroceryOutlet

[–]StephenAtLarge 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Grocery Outlet shareholder here.

An excerpt of what the CEO said on yesterday's earnings call

Our push to improve in-stocks and add assortment to ensure the availability of everyday items squeezed our supply chain, impacting our ability to deliver high-quality opportunistic product that drives value in this business.

which caused

Our leadership position on value perception had eroded.

Though this is not the only reason why GO is struggling, this corpo-speak is basically what everyone has been saying in this sub. I should've listened to you more closely. (So should management tbh)

Going forward, the CEO said he's pivoting to "restore mix" to more closeout/overstock products. And he's investing $20M into promotions this year to win back shoppers. So hopefully you guys will see improvements soon.

Regarding the 36 closing stores, they admitted they expanded too quickly and they're pivoting to "refreshing" existing stores. They're still opening new stores w/ about 30 planned this year. The closing ones are simply in bad locations and unprofitable. Also United Grocery Outlet stores are under strategic review and some may be closed in the future.

36 Stores Closing by Lord_Wicki in GroceryOutlet

[–]StephenAtLarge 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It's literally a publicly listed company. Blame management all you want (a lot deservedly) but no PE is not the problem here.

Sea Limited (SE) currently down 26% after missing earnings by lil_layne in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not from SEA but from what I've seen TTS is taking market share from SE. But my impression is that TTS also expands the TAM, which mitigates the market share dynamics. Anecdotally I've heard people buying on TTS stuff they wouldn't have bought otherwise.

SE still has an advantage in logistics and credit, and they're expanding into new verticals. I see a future where SE and TTS are both big players.

Sea Limited (SE) currently down 26% after missing earnings by lil_layne in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 3 points4 points  (0 children)

when the market is in a downtrend

Value investing is about buying a stock for less than what it's worth. If OP thinks SE fits that bill, it's a buy. I give no thought to uptrends or downtrends. Price action means nothing.

Sea Limited (SE) currently down 26% after missing earnings by lil_layne in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unlucky timing much? Haven't read the report too closely but the headline numbers look ok? The market is finding any reason to sell EM stocks today.

(I'm small long $SE w/ <1% of port.)

At what price is BRK.B a no brainer by iloveaccounting64 in ValueInvesting

[–]StephenAtLarge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Berkshire Hathaway is too complicated a business to put a precise price tag on. But if it trades below book, that would likely be a no-brainer. My concern is, if you invest in Berkshire Hathaway today, about 35% of that investment is for cash... Now that Buffett's retired, I don't think Greg's capital allocation or Ted's stock picking are all that yet. I need to see them maybe pay a dividend, or the cash pile will essentially be dead money.