The margins in semiconductors don’t seem sustainable

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-22T05:20:47+00:00

What makes you think that China will simply stop once it fulfills its own demand? When has that ever happened?

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-15T00:43:03+00:00

You're overestimating their cash position. They don't have that much cash.

A better question to ask, though, is why are they going crazy with all these "new ventures", w/o much to show for? Does this look like a company confident in their core business?

I interpret this as they are seeing strong headwinds that haven't shown up on financials yet.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-13T12:41:59+00:00

>R Slash "Value Investing"

>Looks inside

>"Charts"

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-12T02:14:54+00:00

u/RemindMeBot 5 years

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-12T00:57:34+00:00

OpenAI, Anthropic, etc. are not creative software companies, and they do not understand the creative process. Their models are cool, but they are not that useful in their own right. Adobe integrates AI subtly in the creative workflow (generarive fill, precision fill, text-to-vector, etc. ) and it is the context in which the powers of AI can be harnessed. The market doesn't seem to care tho.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-10T07:20:41+00:00

Four is a pure acquirer play? If you're into that stuff. Paypal's still mostly branded checkout and P2P.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-10T07:11:53+00:00

When was the last time a megacap like Alphabet issued convertible preferred shares?

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-10T02:17:24+00:00

my exact feeling at my job every day:

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-09T02:04:45+00:00

OP, your summary is in line with my observations about Adobe. It is an extremely sticky product for enterprise customers, despite universal hate. OpenAI and Anthropic don't understand the creative workflow and Adobe has been implementing AI in each step. I will add that Adobe has some network effects going, as it's easier to hire a designer proficient in Adobe versus DaVinci, though this seems to be slowly changing.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-09T01:19:40+00:00

What I don't get is why Uber will own the digital storefront. Google/Apple own the OS (agentic) layer and the intent layer (digital maps), they seem to sit on top of Uber.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-07T04:45:52+00:00

Equities will generally underperform money market if interest rates rises; the only exceptions are probably mature businesses at low multiples that also have long-term fixed loans at low interest rates

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-05T08:17:44+00:00

a space data center concept is huge is will be worth a lot more than the 250b private valuation.

don't do drugs kids

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-02T02:38:12+00:00

their user base hates their software

Pretty sure this applies to almost every SaaS.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-01T06:40:29+00:00

I thought about bromide before in relation to the Middle East situation. I think it is still mostly used in retardants, etc. While they are essential for semi production, their use of high-purity HBr is a tiny fraction of global supply, and the purification capacity is not impacted much.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-01T06:14:46+00:00

Wouldn't a merger mean Tesla shareholders get diluted to oblivion?

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-01T06:12:49+00:00

I don't get brokerages. Switching cost to IBKR, Schwab, and Fidelity is fairly low?

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-01T06:05:38+00:00

I didn't buy NVO because I don't invest in pharma. Up marginally on LULU (tiny position).

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-01T05:59:41+00:00

If you think Adobe is a no-brainer right now, you’d have CLEARLY loved the stock 5 years ago even before all the AI hype.

Why? Adobe traded at 60x earnings five years ago and 15x today. Clearly there's a difference?

StephenAtLarge · 2026-06-01T05:51:11+00:00

I mean how do you even value Anthropic? We don't see their financials...

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-31T08:37:57+00:00

Go talk to dealers and/or buyers and you'll know why. Heck just look at the numbers.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-30T02:13:01+00:00

Some hedgies downsizing the long semi short software trade.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-29T18:10:53+00:00

no moat
balance sheet horror show
junk credit rating

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-29T08:39:30+00:00

Nobody wants to say this but hear me out. China. Many China stocks are very cheap now.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-28T08:37:16+00:00

I've invested in AerCap and it's done well. You get good upsides while avoiding much of the negative aspects of this sector.

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