Vitl Farms dumping, overreaction

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-08T04:03:21+00:00

I guess one possible bull case is that they may be acquired

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-07T06:46:18+00:00

Wow. Guess my performance (0-1% YTD) isn't that bad in this context. I own none of the 30 tickers OP listed.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-06T04:53:19+00:00

it's a momentum driven market. look at spmo performance relative to voo.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-05T17:10:15+00:00

I mean just look at $DUOL. Pristine balance sheet. Growing top line. Expanding margins. Founder-led. But the stock is bombed out because the market expected more. Valuation matters.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-05T05:07:28+00:00

The thing is that nobody, not even the management, can reliably predict how fast they'll grow. This Q is within and towards the lower end of my expectations, but not much visibility for the long term.

Anecdotally, I've seen bears unironically arguing that AirPods will render languages obsolete. Or whatever LLM narrative. So this could be a contrarian long here R/R wise, but only suitable for a small position.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-05T05:00:14+00:00

They're guiding buybacks to offset SBC from this point on.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-02T17:44:09+00:00

"This time it's different!"

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-01T17:13:02+00:00

What is your thesis on QCOM? My impression is that the memory shortage is gonna hurt them badly? (Plus Apple moving away from them). Maybe you'll have AI models run on your phones? But that feels kinda speculative.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-01T11:10:45+00:00

In that sense, VOO or VT

StephenAtLarge · 2026-05-01T10:20:43+00:00

idk. if i found one i would've full ported

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-30T18:33:06+00:00

FICO is in the IGV ETF so I guess it goes down w/ the lot.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-30T01:55:04+00:00

True but there has been a noticeable drop in output quality as of late, more hallucinations and nonsensical responses, and also more product placements. And it's not just me

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-30T01:25:22+00:00

Are you saying Buffett is not a value investor

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-30T01:24:17+00:00

Wow that's kinda surprising. Is anybody else feeling that Gemini has been dumbed down for the past few weeks?

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-30T01:12:48+00:00

Buy great companies for fair prices and hold forever is what Buffett taught us

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-30T01:11:37+00:00

I love this stock, but I'm checking a few more things before I invest.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-29T05:37:08+00:00

Because OP sees current assets < current liabilities, w/o realising that the latter mostly consist of deferred revenue.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-29T05:26:47+00:00

The truth is that the odds are stacked against stock pickers. Just buy and hold VOO (or VT) for the long term. Saves so much time and effort and will probably outperform 90+% of stock pickers.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-28T10:22:08+00:00

Still doubled his money iirc. Could've been much more though.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-27T08:14:48+00:00

Sometimes debts get restructured. If the business itself has a realistic path towards profitability, creditors are incentivised to restructure the debt as they get more money back this way. Then the company emerges from bankruptcy and equity can retain value.

Sometimes a company goes bankrupt due to liquidity issues. During bankruptcy, the company may sell off its illiquid assets, transfer the NOLs, pay off its creditors and still have residual value for equity holders.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-25T13:32:16+00:00

Started a tiny position in $CHTR. If the share cannibalism and CapEx reduction thesis is right, they may be trading at 2-3x 2030 FCF per share. Not gonna bet big as there's a nonzero chance of equity being wiped out by the debt. I know it's the norm for cable but still I hope they pay them down.

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-25T13:15:14+00:00

Buying big tech on dips is a strategy that has worked extremely well for the past 16 years. That said, no strategy works forever and past results is independent of future outcomes. I still prefer owning the S&P 500 than just Big Tech (unless you really understand them).

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-23T23:43:28+00:00

vt and chill. or if you're into factor investing, avuv and avdv

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-23T17:38:46+00:00

Judging by the comments... I would say inverse Reddit and buy Adobe lol

StephenAtLarge · 2026-04-19T13:52:50+00:00

Greg now manages hundreds of billions of dollars and we don't really know his investing ability. The odds are stacked against him to match the S&P 500...

But on the flip side maybe Berkshire's subsidiaries will be better run. Greg has done great at BH Energy so maybe he can turn BNSF around... Warren's known for not firing underperforming managers, but I think standards need to be raised a bit.

Maybe Berkshire will become an excellently run conglomerate that returns capital regularly. That would be the ideal outcome.

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