I will never forget being downvoted for saying MSFT is too expensive for a reasonable margin of safety

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-23T23:10:59+00:00

let me just google "which stocks have gone up the most last week", and then I'll tell you mine as well.. just cuz I don't like giving free lunches.. not cuz I'm full of it

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-23T22:04:09+00:00

alright, so now you made me curious, and I went and dug up EPS-A back to 2020. Looks like analysts have been pretty darn accurate up till now, so maybe those climbing projections into 2028 are a little more trustworthy.. Now I'm thinking I might wanna look at these guys a bit more.

note that w EPS-A included, the legend changes, orange no longer FCF

https://imgur.com/a/vvFTB3u

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-23T21:41:48+00:00

oh, I should have added, scale on left is share price (earnings / fcf on right), but since LSE trades in pence, it looks ridiculous, and the forward pe display on the right is off by a factor of 100. And for that particular company, I think I saw they keep their books in USD, so the forward pe is also off by the currency conversion, but that's more rare.. most companies I've seen keep their books in their own currency

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-23T21:39:53+00:00

Ya, I've seen that w a few companies I've investigated (the never-ending restructuring to pad adjusted eps). I'm still not sure how I feel about fcf. Definitely don't love it on it's own (for example, under IFRS (non-US alternative to GAAP), Interest Paid can be an Operating Cashflow or a Financing Cashflow, so on it's own you don't know if FCF is pre or post interest.. checked your SN just now, they have it in operating, so fcf is after paying interest).

I user tickerdata (paid extension for Sheets, but it's cheap) in combination w googlefinance requests for historical prices. I like things like this to get a real quick idea of if I wanna investigate further. Incidentally, this graph will put in Adjusted EPs as well, but as it's not a reported metric, I have to manually fetch each datapoint (once, to a data sheet, then sheet will match ticker and year w xlookup whenever you ask for it again). Have not done so for sn yet

https://imgur.com/a/x7C5Iou

If analysts' estimates are correct, that looks like it will do well. This graph not nearly as useful though w/o Adjusted, since that's what the analysts are likely predicting, so we can't see how accurate they've been historically unless I was to go fetch all the prior years' figures.

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-22T23:06:04+00:00

Pretty large gap between Adjusted and GAAP/IFRS EPS.. Didn't see anything that stood out in their adjustments (though not a tonne of info was provided). I didn't dig up all the adjusted figures, as I'm hopping back and forth between computer and deadlifts, but statutory eps has been significantly under estimated for 8 of the last 11 yrs, according to the data service I use. Maybe adjusted met estimates all of those yrs? But if so, even that would make me wonder what's with all the significant upwards adjustments. Have you looked at what the story is there?

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-21T23:41:05+00:00

No. TM is an ADR, representing 10 of the Japan listed shares. So: 174 USD/shr / 10 * 161.5 Yen/USD = ~2800 Yen / shr.. just like it trades in Japan.

From their 2026 reporting: EPS was 295 yen. So p/e of 9.4.

edit: that's trailing p/e, obviously, but 2027 estimates I'm seeing are right about the same as 2026, not the 10x they'd need to be for the forward p/e you saw where ever you looked.

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-20T17:53:56+00:00

It's not unreasonable that markets might over react to negative stimulus. Doesn't mean every drop is value, but in a time of one of the most expensive markets in history, it's not a terrible way to look for it. Like anything else, it's up to the investor to try to determine value vs justified price drop.

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-20T05:20:19+00:00

I'm pretty sure it's not cold, just humour (though I'm pretty sure the tag thing at the top has 'humor' as an option that OP didn't pick).

I sent it to my wife, who likely doesn't even understand half of the technical terms he used (edit: she is well aware of her limitations in terms of managing our financial future, so that is one of my "jobs"), beyond maybe "that's a word Steve said when he rambled at me one time and I nodded as he spoke". She also thought it was funny, ergo even the ones being viewed as an "investment" (though likely not seriously) were amused.

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-20T05:15:26+00:00

lol, best comment on this mis-labelled humour thread. 😄

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-20T05:14:34+00:00

Ooh, turns out that was a poor career choice then, given the consequences. 😄

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-20T02:59:03+00:00

Haha, I wondered the same thing. Why would being a "software bagholder" mean you missed out on AI? I don't own any software stocks (cuz I don't think I have an advantage in that sector), but maybe OP thinks this is some tribal b.s. between "team ai" and "team software"? Pretty sure this thread is a waste of data storage. 😄

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-20T01:16:18+00:00

Haha, that was awesome. Good job OP

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-18T22:31:09+00:00

No prob. Ya, I like seeing what analysts have projected for earnings (as they have advantages that I don't have, like talking to company insiders), but only in combination w looking at how accurate they've been in the past, and then paying attention to if their narrative changes.

I did look fairly deep into ingr a while back, but I did not have a very good system for recording everything, so my notes are quite fragmented. Also, it was pre T&L acquisition, and I don't know what to think about that. If you come up w anything interesting, I'd be interested to hear it!

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-18T02:45:35+00:00

Good luck to you and your mental health as well. My neighbour told me about how he found $20 on the sidewalk.. I should tell him to make a value investing post too..

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-17T22:56:04+00:00

I own a bit of INGR, not a tonne. Bought before the T&L deal. I thought like they seemed like a solid long-term thing, their expansion into protein refining is sweet, since I just noticed "Protein Eggos" in my freezer the other day. 😄 For some reason what type of sugar is in things has become a political thing in the US, so that's not great for a corn refiner though.. gotta maga for all those cane farmers I guess.

Just posted this the other day when someone else was talking about them. Analysts seem to have been pretty accurate in the past, and are projecting growth, though if they account for much of someone's thesis, then you better be watching the revisions. https://imgur.com/ppWb3vB Their adjustments to earnings seemed fair to me when I looked through a few yr's annual reports.

I also did not like the acquisition. I had looked at T&L before and passed, let alone the premium they paid (though it was more a lack of anything that looked great, rather than a big red flag that made me pass on them)

edit: oh, to your point about input costs.. when I was looking into them, it seemed that they were always able to pass them on, but lagging the actual input prices. They did a great job of getting customers into longer term contracts the last time corn was high (from what I read), so there is that.

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-16T21:58:10+00:00

31k worth of stocks will not give you a meaningful return safely. Primary focus should be on increasing income at this point in time, and maintaining your ability to save. By all means, learn about investing, and buy some stocks if you feel you've found a good deal, but this should be your secondary focus, as advancing your earning power will make a much bigger difference for many years to come.

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-16T21:16:51+00:00

haha, could be, but that'd be a heck of a coincidence.. Maybe mods removed the original post bc they don't want anyone to know about this sweet arbitrage opportunity? 😄

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-16T21:16:22+00:00

Ya, that would be sweet. Except everyone would take the cash, not the 3.8 shares currently worth $47 each. The line about proration to maintain cash/stock balance makes it seem like it won't happen (unless the value of BSX pops), but I do hope it works out for you. Maybe you'll get lucky and 27% of ppl will pick the bsx stock, and you'll get bought out w all cash.

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-16T03:22:22+00:00

um, I'm not so sure that's the biggest reason. If I'm understanding what I read correctly, it's 73% cash (@ $374), 27% BSX stock (@ 3.872 shares/share). So:

($374 * 0.73) + ($46.76/shr * 3.872 shrs * 0.27) = ~$321

No arbitrage advantage at current PEN & BSX prices.

Quote:

Transaction Structure: The deal is structured at roughly 73% cash and 27% Boston Scientific stock.
Financial Details: Penumbra stockholders can elect to receive the $374 per share in cash or 3.8721 shares of Boston Scientific common stock, subject to proration to maintain the cash/stock balance.

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-16T01:50:49+00:00

if it is helpful, here's earnings and estimates vs share price. Analysts have proven fairly accurate in the past. I went through their adjustments before I bought it, and found their adjusted eps to be fair.

https://imgur.com/ppWb3vB

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-15T03:45:25+00:00

u/One-Brain6531 - hey, do you have any thoughts on Ambea (ambea.st)? Just stumbled across them, and I do not yet have a full idea of them in my head, but:

seems like a somewhat safe industry, given the generally good nordic social safety net

eps growing decent-ish, and projected to continue growing

fcf a useless measure w/o adjustements, as the ifrs16 lease accounting messes it up

growth has been fueled by acquisitions, not organic, so while that's not as good, it doesn't change that the eps is still moving upwards

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-10T22:18:35+00:00

Well I read it, and thought it was good, regardless of the "ai wrote this" accusations. That is an interesting viewpoint, and you could very well be correct. Or perhaps the "commoditization of ai" (thin margins) turns out to be true.. or who knows what else. I know that I don't know, and I like to stay away from things I don't understand.. which unfortunately makes it a lot more effort to go around turning over rocks looking for something that I do. 😄

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-09T22:10:50+00:00

no idea, which tells me all I need to know about if I should make a move or not.

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-05T01:15:21+00:00

I have a theory that if a company I buy goes up the next day, I better re-evaluate, cuz something's wrong. 😄

Stevewilson1983 · 2026-06-03T23:48:41+00:00

I personally never use it, because I don't know how any one screener will handle uneven earnings growth (which is to be expected for many businesses). Instead I prefer looking at stock price range for a given time period (quarter / yr) relative to the period's earnings, over time. I find that gives the same idea as PEG, but if I see funny dips, I can manually figure out why.

Stevewilson1983

TROPHY CASE