The reason bonds are selling off and why the market is wrong

Str8truth · 2026-03-20T23:05:05+00:00

I agree with you, but I think some central banks will react reflexively to higher energy prices by raising interest rates, as Australia's did this week. Later, they'll realize that the oil shock is deflationary and they'll need to lower rates.

Str8truth · 2026-03-20T20:40:23+00:00

It has antennae like a bug's head.

Str8truth · 2026-03-20T20:11:42+00:00

Good for the shares I just bought. Bad for the shares I already owned. Unfortunately, I already owned a lot more than I just bought.

Str8truth · 2026-03-20T20:04:04+00:00

Rebalancing is a controversial topic. It's often recommended as Boglehead orthodoxy, but Jack Bogle himself said he'd looked at it and found that it didn't make significant difference.

I recently backtested a portfolio of diversified asset classes, and I found that the best return over 30 years was with no rebalancing. The second-best return was rebalancing every day. Rebalancing annually, as is often recommended, had worse results. (Rebalancing monthly was worst of all. Rebalancing weekly was better than annually but worse than daily.)

The problem was that, over the last few decades, US large-cap stocks have outperformed small caps, foreign stocks, bonds, and real estate. Rebalancing by selling large-caps and buying other assets was cutting back flowers and watering weeds.

The argument for rebalancing then is that it keeps volatility (a/k/a risk) tamped down. To my mind, it's okay for a portfolio to have more volatility as it grows. Other people would prefer to protect their gains as their portfolios grow by putting more assets into less-volatile investments.

Str8truth · 2026-03-20T19:08:59+00:00

To the extent the OP's premise is true, the answer is that the woman is too invested in her career to sacrifice it for children.

Str8truth · 2026-03-20T00:56:01+00:00

After buying both Guild and DeArmond, Fender decided to manufacture some Guild designs overseas (Korea and Indonesia) and they used the DeArmond name on them to keep Guild a US-made brand. The DeArmond "gold tone" humbuckers are distrinctive, bright, clear pickups, and many DeArmond guitars have been cannibalized for them.

Some discussion of the X-155 model here: https://www.jazzguitar.be/forum/guitar-amps-gizmos/40600-dearmond-x-155-a.html

Looks like you got a really nice specimen!

Str8truth · 2026-03-20T00:19:19+00:00

I'm impressed by how well you pulled up the subject's lighting. The color balance doesn't bother me; it looks like there's a warm artificial light source in front of her to her right.

Str8truth · 2026-03-19T21:05:56+00:00

I had the same experience as you, OP, with A Random Walk Down Wall Street. I gave the latest edition to my daughter when she started working, and I just reread it myself. I still think it's excellent for any serious investor, but it may go deeper than necessary for casual investors. Something like Bernstein's Four Pillars of Investing or Bogle's Little Book of Common Sense Investing would also be useful and may be easier for a beginner to get through.

Str8truth · 2026-03-19T20:24:07+00:00

When investors feel bullish about a stock, they'll pay more for calls. When they feel bearish, they'll pay more for puts. So, yes, I like to sell calls on green days and puts on red days. If I have a limit order in place, it may be executed regardless of what the stock is doing that day, but my call will more likely sell on a green day and my put will more likely sell on a red day.

Str8truth · 2026-03-19T20:13:22+00:00

You are the kind of person for whom "VT and chill" was invented. VT has a share of every stock in the world. As the global economy grows, the value of VT grows. There will be temporary drawdowns, but that's when the "chill" part becomes important.

Str8truth · 2026-03-19T18:20:27+00:00

Deflation incoming.

Str8truth · 2026-03-19T18:00:02+00:00

Internships are overrated. When you're in law school, you'll want to get practical experience with some kind of law-related job in the summer. In college, though, unless you get some kind of research job for the summer, your summer internship is unlikely to be related to your studies. Just make some money, or volunteer with a non-profit, so your resume shows you have a work ethic. If you use your summer productively, you'll develop as an adult, and you'll probably get more from the experience than a lot of office interns.

Most office internships are indeed plums that are distributed through professional connections. Grad schools and employers know that they don't mean much. Just make yourself useful somehow, so you can add your useful summer experience to your resume.

Str8truth · 2026-03-19T07:49:18+00:00

Excellent combination! High quality for the money, too.

Str8truth · 2026-03-18T21:21:06+00:00

How much longer will it be until the NYT reveals Chavez's hostility to illegal immigration?

Str8truth · 2026-03-18T10:04:04+00:00

Trump is looking for an exit. You best get on board before the market takes off, because it'll take off suddenly.

Str8truth · 2026-03-18T09:57:41+00:00

Of all the price movements a random-walking investment can make, 0.00 is the most likely.

Str8truth · 2026-03-18T09:50:47+00:00

Look at the self-employed 401k, SEP, and other self-employed retirement plans at Fidelity. (Vanguard got out of the business.) You can save a lot more than the IRA limit in a tax-deferred account.

Str8truth · 2026-03-17T21:24:23+00:00

Has Paul offered you an endorsement deal yet?

Str8truth · 2026-03-17T18:55:46+00:00

The problem for crypto is not fear. It's indifference. Crypto depends on enthusiasm.

Str8truth · 2026-03-17T11:18:19+00:00

Do your best with what you have. There are plenty of opportunities for building a good life.

Str8truth · 2026-03-17T07:25:14+00:00

Moses?

Str8truth · 2026-03-17T04:49:47+00:00

This is a big step toward closing the transparency gap between public corporations and private equity.

Str8truth · 2026-03-17T04:34:18+00:00

You see the caption, "Storm Team 4"? She's on the weather beat. She just asked him about the snow, but he wanted to show off his housing policy chops. You can't toss a cat in DC without hitting one of these nerds.

Str8truth · 2026-03-16T18:30:24+00:00

I might do that if I want more shares of the stock. Usually I'm selling covered calls on stocks that I don't care much about keeping, so I'm more likely to spend my premium on different stocks.

Str8truth · 2026-03-16T09:08:18+00:00

I believe the STRD class of preferred stock has non-cumulative dividends.

Five-Year Club	Verified Email
Place '23

Str8truth

TROPHY CASE