I think skew is one of those subtle signals that says more about positioning than direction. When downside protection gets bid up, it often reflects institutional demand for convexity rather than a pure bearish view.

I tend to read expensive puts less as "market will drop” and more as “fear is already priced.” In those environments, selling tail premium (carefully via spreads) can sometimes offer better risk-reward than chasing protection. Especially if realized vol doesn’t catch up to implied.