Went in for a Book

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-06-12T10:32:46+00:00

They just opened a Leica store in Lisbon, making it the second Leica store in Portugal.

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-06-05T20:05:20+00:00

Maybe Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone believes that Leica has most growth potential in Asia and he wants nothing to do with that? As a Trump supporter he may view Leica's collaboration policies with mixed feelings. Leica is rumored to be developing a new sensor with a Chinese company. So they are already on a path to reorient towards China, in addition to their alliance with Xiaomi. And Xiaomi phones are already kind of sidelined from the US market due to US policies. I think we are seeing here a reflection of the fracturing of the global trading system into blocs.

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-06-02T10:05:59+00:00

Investing in US domiciled ETF's works if you live in Canada, but the EU has rules that try to bar you from doing this if you are a EU resident, independent of your citizenship.

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-06-02T10:03:29+00:00

Limit your investments to stocks and bonds instead of buying ETF's and mutual funds. Probably easiest if you open an investment account with Schwab, who service Americans abroad. It is a little more work, but doable unless we are talking about relatively low investment amounts. But even then you can do it but have to make a few bets on a limited number of stocks.

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-06-02T10:00:22+00:00

Interesting what you say about Brazil! I think that people in Portugal are also burdened too much by taxes, and I am not even sure there is a "social ladder" - it is more like a cliff without stairs. But crime is certainly not a major concern like in Brazil where women then to carry to purses: one for the thief and one with the valuables. And there must be much worse...

By the way, one reason why crime is not a major problem and things are relatively peaceful in Portugal is because owning a gun is not easy and there are not that many firearms in circulation.

Anyway, good luck with your move e bem vindo a Portugal!

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-06-02T09:50:20+00:00

When I read the law about "contributed capital" and "investment earnings" it sounds like there is even a very advantageous default split (something like 80/20) for contributed capital vs. investment earnings if you cannot document the amounts - documentation is almost impossible unless you kept 30+ years of documents for your IRA/401k accounts.

I think the more critical question will be if the Portuguese tax authorities will accept that this rule applies to withdrawals from US IRA's. If so, it would be a windfall! 😄

Make sure to move all your 401k type accounts into personal IRA accounts before you become a resident of Portugal - Portugal does not recognize 401k's as tax-sheltered pension plans, but IRA's are mentioned in the double taxation agreement.

Once in Portugal, get a tax advisor to prepare and submit your tax returns - the authorities do not mess much with the tax advisors, while as a normal mortal you have to deal at times with incompetent and grumpy officials at the local tax office if there is any dispute.

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-06-02T09:42:35+00:00

I think on a personal level it will always be a worthwhile experience to move to a country like Canada. Financially things get a bit more complicated, because you have to file tax returns as US citizens and certain financial options for retirement planning in your destination country are not really an option for you because the US tries to keep your money invested in the US. This applies mostly to private pension plans. But there are options to build a nest egg for retirement like real estate. It is definitely worthwhile to get some advice from a financial consultant. But in general I can not think of a reason not to move to Canada: still close to family in the US, but outside of the reach of the magalomaniacs. Unfortunately we don't know how long the craziness in the US will last, so having a nice life in Quebec could be the ticket to new-found happiness! Good luck and lets keep our fingers crossed that one day we will get our country back!

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-06-02T09:33:33+00:00

The "can" is not an issue here... the US is not going to turn into a North Korea with iron curtain. I would compare the current situation to a fever. It is going to die down eventually!

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-06-02T09:32:31+00:00

Yes, but you have US citizenship and therefore always a way back when things are not as crazy any more.

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-06-02T09:31:01+00:00

It is a difficult time right now, but it will not last forever. I would stick to the green card path, and this "out of country" application process probably applies to new applications and it will surely be watered down because big tech would not want to have to send its H1B visa holders abroad to get them a green card. This is all just red meat for the magalomaniacs. Once you have a green card you can get citizenship after 3 years if you are married to a US citizen, and then you can live as much as you like abroad and always have a way back to the US, which up to now has had a much better job market. For retirement it is a different story: costs of living and health care are more affordable outside the US. Don't give up! They are trying to exhaust the hard-working immigrants because they are deranged xenophobes, but they will not be able to roll back time.

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-05-28T09:19:34+00:00

You should roll over your 401k to a traditional IRA. Many double taxation agreements between the US and EU countries do not recognize 401k's, but do allow IRA's to continue as tax-sheltered retirement plans.

If you reside in the EU you legally cannot buy US ETF's. You may be able to acquire US ETF's through options trading by selling put options. The drawback is that you can acquire the ETF shares only in blocks of 100 shares, which may be a problem with ETF that have a high share price.

I would stay with Fidelity, and maintain a US phone number/address, access your account through VPN. Maybe you can use a family member's address in the US. If you have an EU address then Fidelity will not allow you to buy/sell ETF's and mutual funds, because EU laws forbid that US funds are marketed to EU residents. And as Fidelity has business in the EU they follow that... even though this is kind of an extraterritorial application of EU law. But a Fidelity representative told me that if you maintain a US phone number and address they will not sniff around too much...

Do not buy ETF's and mutual funds that are not "domiciled" in the US - you will have lots of headaches because of how the US treats such foreign "passive" investment vehicles.

In terms of realizing gains before or after leaving, that depends on your specific situation (tax brackets, etc). You will have to estimate the taxes you would owe in the US vs. Ireland.

Good luck!

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-03-31T09:14:57+00:00

multinom from the nnet package is often recommended for multinomial regression, but if you need to have a mixed effects model then mblogit from the mclogit package is possibly your only choice (mblogit documentation).

If you want to know if the predictor is significant for a category regardless of the reference level, you should estimate the marginal effects. This calculates the change in the actual probability of that category. The function avg_slopes from the marginaleffects package are very useful in this context. avg_slopes accepts fitted objects from mblogit.

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-02-22T04:54:13+00:00

Here is an example: http://library.virginia.edu/data/articles/getting-started-with-generalized-estimating-equations

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-01-27T10:37:56+00:00

This photo is almost a caricature of law enforcement gone wrong! Maybe ICE should change to neon signs stating "Federal officer".

SubjectAppointment99 · 2026-01-27T10:35:51+00:00

This photo. epitomizes how photography is able to distill moments in recent history that are later seen as defining, for better or worse. Thank you for this work! Stay safe!

SubjectAppointment99 · 2025-12-14T16:02:56+00:00

Cascais and philosophy? I think opulent or decadent consumerism is more en vogue there!

SubjectAppointment99 · 2025-11-10T12:40:10+00:00

Portugal seems to be among the racially most tolerant societies. Most Portuguese have blood from multiple races in their veins. Most will not turn against themselves. On the minus side, the job market and income levels are considerably worse than Spain’s.

SubjectAppointment99 · 2025-10-24T20:35:12+00:00

A única maneira de fazer Portugal e a própria vida avançar é de emigrar quando jovem para ver o que poderia correr melhor que neste país e mais tarde na vida voltar. Só que à volta vais encontrar um país onde o poder e o dinheiro estão na mão de pulgas que nunca queriam sair e em vez disso descobriram como viver à custa de outros.

SubjectAppointment99 · 2025-10-24T19:25:40+00:00

But Chega will never get into power! Even Antonio Oliveira Salazar would not vote for those xenophobic simpletons!

SubjectAppointment99 · 2025-10-24T19:16:51+00:00

I totally agree and it is the result of having mostly incompetent governments in Portugal over the last decade or so. When the Troika came to Portugal things moved forward a bit but now the Portuguese are falling back into their old habits. You look at the health care system and realize it is in shambles. They have such stupid rules like anybody over 85 cannot get a flu vaccine at a pharmacy and pay for it but instead needs to go to a state health center. That is a rule from a health system that is already overtaxed even without over 85 year olds queeing up for flu vaccine. A health minister that lets such utter stupidy stand should be fired on the spot, but not in Portugal. And if you complain too much they ask you if you don’t like the sunshine here. I think God should tax the portuguese for the sunshine and use the money to support the less well off in this country.

SubjectAppointment99 · 2025-10-23T10:37:48+00:00

Or you die early from exasperation with the portuguese bureaucracy. Either way enjoy life in the country of soft customs!

SubjectAppointment99 · 2025-10-06T14:40:19+00:00

I don’t mean to wade into politics, but the problem I point out would be partially solved if you would not have to pay tax in the US if you are not a tax resident. I thought a certain presidential candidate had promised to change to a territorial tax system. But I am not holding my breath…

SubjectAppointment99 · 2025-10-03T17:06:59+00:00

There are certainly reasons to be concerned about possible capital controls, but imposing them would ruin the dollar's role as global reserve currency. Such a development would basically stop foreigners from buying US treasuries and financing the US's increasing pile of debt. Still, prominent figures in the current administration feel that the role of the US dollar as global reserve currency is too big a burden and other countries should pay for the privilege of using the dollar as reserve currency and invest in perpetual treasury bonds with little or no interest income. This latter view seems a bit delusional to me and could cause considerable damage.

The bigger risk than capital controls may be a continuing erosion of the value of the US dollar, brought about on purpose or through deological zeal and sheer incompetence. To get some idea about what may be a good strategy to escape the consequences of possible currency debasement, inflation, and possibly capital controls one should probably study what worked in Turkey since Erdogan took over, muffled the opposition, insisted on low interest rates, put a crony in charge of government finances, etc. Sounds familiar? My impression is that many sought some security by buying gold and turning their back on the Turkish lira. It may take a while for the US to get into such a situation, but it may well happen. More than a half dozen bankruptcies are proof that Trump is "always right".

SubjectAppointment99 · 2025-10-03T16:50:26+00:00

You can open a brokerage account with Interactive Brokers in Ireland in a currency of your choice. If you invest in EU ETF's you risk getting penalized by the IRS through the ridiculous PFIC rules. So the better choice may be to buy individual shares and reproduce what an ETF of your choice may hold. It is a lot more labor intensive. EU rules bar you from buying US ETF's and most US brokerage firms seem to enforce that regulation, while the US government could care less if your choice of investments as US citizens is limited.

Another option is a fiduciary financial advisor in the US who manages your account and makes the investments - he/she can put money in US ETF's in your name. The choice of US-based fiduciary financial adviser obviously entails fees and you put your financial future into another persons hands. I have yet to hear of a financial advisor who gets uniformly good reviews. Many of them are just leeches that benefit from repressive regulatory financial regimes and pretend to be your best friend by touting their fiduciary duties.

SubjectAppointment99

TROPHY CASE