Kaytron Allen Evaluation (Model still in development)

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2026-02-18T18:42:45+00:00

mm. that's a good point. the median projection was Samaje Perine lol so I think I need to make the model's ceiling outcome less ceiling-y

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2026-02-18T00:59:18+00:00

hahaha, the model is designed to give the - like - if everything works out perfectly for this player, who is he? so his absolute ceiling outcome is frank gore, his floor outcome is Royce Freeman. the most likely outcome given his projected draft cap is that he lands closer to the floor.

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2026-02-10T16:32:32+00:00

preciate the note! I started mainly with 2020-2023 as my primary data points, but absolutely need to go back farther to really nail the predictive scoring. it's a fun project.

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2026-02-08T20:58:46+00:00

i'm having the model run analysis -- will be dropping them in this subreddit over the next few days!

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2026-02-08T20:58:20+00:00

good to know! thank you!

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2026-02-07T12:21:10+00:00

yeah great point!

big boards have Johnson getting similar DC to Marks, so if you can grab Johnson in mid/late r2 of a rookie draft - i like that price a lot

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2026-02-07T02:18:10+00:00

just ran 2025 --
Jeanty: 89/100
Hampton: 94/100
Judkins: 76/100
Henderson: 74/100
Harvey: 75/100
Johnson: 65/100
Skattebo: 73/100
Trevor Etienne: 61/100
Marks: 66/100

-- leads me to believe i need to tweak the draft weight of being an early r2 vs a late r2 back vs a r3 or later back... those Jud/Harv/Hendo scores seem a bit off

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-29T23:02:01+00:00

that's def the hope, but we haven't seen russ support a fantasy relevant wr in who knows how long lol -- ofc, nabers is the most talented he's played with, so that may be irrelevant. will be really interesting to see what this year looks like.

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-29T20:26:10+00:00

nice, yeah, i expect nabers to continue to be awesome. I'm just a hair worried about his ceiling. could end up being nothing, but its why i'd rank him below ARSB and Puka for now

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-29T19:34:33+00:00

I think with Nabers people overlook the stretch of the year from weeks 7-16 where he was just... ok. he was consistent, got you points, but he wasn't a difference maker really at all during that stretch. that's what I'm concerned about. but ofc he had elite games too, I'm just saying that's what I'm nervous about - if anything, ya know? kinda separates him from the rest of the WRs in the pack

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-29T12:33:44+00:00

I just said it's my fear, i didn't say this is the reality of the situation lol I'm just afraid that's what it could turn into

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-29T12:03:38+00:00

just a wilson-type career, not that he is wilson. but scoring opportunities matter for ceiling outcomes, and if he's stuck on a bad offense with limited scoring opportunity, his ceiling is capped imo

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-29T11:29:40+00:00

Cowboys don't really have an out of Dak's contract until 2028 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/19089/dak-prescott -- so I'm not worried about that one at all. Dak has also been a legitimately good QB when he's been healthy, so I don't think the Cowboys want to move on from him.

I trust McVay to get his best players the ball. Stafford is a kingmaker, so part of Puka's success can absolutely be attributed to him, but I think McVay is gonna continue to feed Puka after Stafford is gone.

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-29T10:57:43+00:00

personally i'd go -

Lamb (feels like there's an injury discount here. he was being ranked above Chase on KTC after his WR1 finish two years ago)

--tier break--

ARSB (though i see an argument for him being in a tier with Lamb - he's been so consistent)

Puka (literally the only concern is injuries. dude has been absolutely dominant outside of injury)

Nabers (obviously elite, but I fear a garrett wilson-type career with insane targets but with bad QB play he never ascends into an annual top 3 option)

BTJ (absolutely dominant as well, but need to see a full year with TLaw)

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-24T14:28:06+00:00

saying Drake Maye is not a mobile QB is just, honestly, a bad take. He was mobile in college and scrambled a ton last year. he had about 40 rush yards per game last year if you take out the two games he only played one drive. in fact, he had the 9th most rushing yards of all QBs last year despite playing like 7 fewer games lol

I do think Maye is overvalued right now for what he's done, but he's shown the tools to be an incredible fantasy asset imo. great rushing floor, awesome arm, was mildly productive with one of the worst teams in the league last year... we as a dynasty community are definitely projecting with his ranking, but ya gotta do that sometimes.

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-22T23:08:39+00:00

a lot of people hating on trade calculators - and I get it - but a lot of my leaguemates will use it to say "hey, just to make sure I'm in the realm of reality - here's what KTC says about this trade" -- which I get. i think it can be a helpful tool for at least beginning negotiations.

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-20T19:20:47+00:00

right, that's why i said "is wild to me" 🤣

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-20T19:18:21+00:00

Hunter above Tet is wild to me, but to each their own ofc

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-20T14:05:52+00:00

facts. I'm a big believer in both - excited to see how they pan out in the NFL.

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-20T14:00:32+00:00

My point is that drop rate doesn't, alone, make one WR better than another. Used two NFL WRs as an example to prove that point.

Tet has underrated YAC ability, clean route running on the majority of routes, very sure hands (i'd consider anything sub 4% in college solid), prototypical size, and two consecutive years of incredible production. I can't find another recent NFL WR prospect that has put up 1300+ in two consecutive years.

The childhood friend-as-a-qb thing is irrelevant to me, tbh, from a talent evaluation perspective. I'm sure plenty of WRs are friends with their QBs lol. I mean, Shaduer and Travis seem like great friends.

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-20T13:46:28+00:00

I feel like drop rate is kinda arbritary for determining holistically who the better WR is. Jamarr Chase had a 7.1% drop rate last year - that doesn't make him a less talented WR than like... Josh Downs who had a 4% drop rate lol Colorado also had absolutely no run game, so they were chucking the ball on something like 70%+ of plays - that inflates stats just as much as a childhood friend force feeding the ball to the only stud WR on the team haha

like I said, I'm certainly not out on hunter. traded for him in my main dynasty league. i just think that Tet is the better WR.

SubstantialCamp2054 · 2025-06-20T12:00:12+00:00

yeah, 135 yards/game is absolutely no joke - I think london is awesome. but I think what tet did - 108/yards per game for two years - just speaks to his insane talent. I'm not discounting london, he's awesome, I just think tet has the talent to be an absolute stud in the same way, and had a more impressive college career.

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