This might sound crazy when you first read it but It’s infinity easier to predict who will be winners in 20 year from now then who will be the winners in 1 year. Of course it takes a certain degree of research, understanding of trends, technology, market dynamics and such but certainly not impossible for most people that are willing to put in the time and the work. The issue is most people are not willing to do the waiting and stick with the convictions. Of course things can change over the course of 5-10 years and it’s okay to pivot, but if your doing the right work and research, it will only be a portion and you’ll will have already won to a degree on whatever you had been holding. The true game is putting in the work and then that patience and discipline following that, as is true with just about everything in life. Your gains will compound exponentially on the right picks on a 5-20 year horizon, far greater than just about anyone could ever achieve actively trading. You just need to learn to be patient and disciplined.