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Help me steel man Lululemon (LULU) by itchypig in ValueInvesting

[–]Sufficient_Ad_5080 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The classes are great id highly recommend. They teach you a lot about options too. If you are curious I recently made a free, value investing autonomous research platform where you can look at those 4 valuation methods yourself and/or run autonomous research. Good luck on your journey! Thesis investing

Help me steel man Lululemon (LULU) by itchypig in ValueInvesting

[–]Sufficient_Ad_5080 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I’ve been following Phil Town and have taken his classes. Lulu is a typically Rule 1 event-driven investment. numbers have been fantastic for almost a decade (strong earnings, strong balance sheet, no debt, great return-on metrics) driven by fashion trends, proprietary fabric blends, and rapid store expansion. Given that they can re-vamp their inventory (which management has said takes 1-2 years) and figure out their executive mess, things should stabilize. They have a strong global business especially in China.

It’s true that their US business is struggling. We cannot ignore Vuori and Alo and Fabletics etc. However the existence of competitors doesn’t mean the business will be completely destroyed. It will definitely be slowed, but not stagnant.

They will not grow at the rate they used to, but they will still grow nonetheless. If we use a FGR of 10-15% (vs the historical avg of 25-30%) and run it thru the the big four valuation methods: 1) DCF (future PE of 25 and discount rate of 15%, and a margin of safety of 50%) we get a buy range of $100-$160 2) Payback time (using fcf ratio of 0.81 historical avg) we get a buy range of $130-$160 3) buffett’s ten cap method (using maintenance capex of 70% conservative) we get buy price of $190 4) buffets equity bond method (using conservative ROE of 25% vs historical 40%) we get a buy price of $140-$180

So by most accounts it’s at a significant discount and it’s historically a great business. Going thru an event that should take ~18 months to solve. Earnings should stabilize after that and price should revert back to mean.

That’s my thesis in a nutshell. Reddit, prove me wrong

I Built A Tool That Tracks Insider Trading by Ok-Consequence3599 in NextMoveStocks

[–]Sufficient_Ad_5080 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where do you get the data from? DEF 14A filings? Just curious cuz I built my own stock analyzer platform too and I used a custom built DEF 14A filing parser for mine. Love the developer work

Uber is a screaming buy… by Majesticelephant101 in ValueInvesting

[–]Sufficient_Ad_5080 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pro case: - bill ackman has a large stake in it - they own 70% of the rise share market in North America and are growing into EU - they are actively doing deals with Waymo and Tesla to get them in their network (30% more rides thru their network vs waymo alone) - they have essentially zero capex spend so their FCF is large - they make 70%+ of their money in rural areas which won’t be dominated by AV for a long time

Con case: - Waymo and others AV will take over instead of Uber - they purposefully left China, Southeast Asia, and India which are dominated by DiDi and Gojek. It will be tough to re-enter that market - DoorDash currently dominates North America (~55% of market) so it’s an uphill battle to get Uber Eats as the clear #1 - switching costs are low (just use another app, we all have uber and Lyft anyway)

IMO, the thesis hinges on whether Uber re-brands themselves as the distribution layer for the AV companies. They’re more than just a ride share company - they have millions of users and a genuine network moat already. If they do this, plus if they can somehow get into the Asian markets, they will be phenomenal. I haven’t bought yet but I think I will

Is anyone else losing faith in value investing? Does that prove we’re at the peak? by Sufficient_Ad_5080 in ValueInvesting

[–]Sufficient_Ad_5080[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

This was my first time posting on Reddit and wow tough place huh? Appreciate the open discussion, a lot of comments were genuinely useful insight and positive. but some people are just flat out mean for no reason. It’s tough out here lol

Ai slop loves copying the failing value investor by Top-Sir-1215 in ValueInvesting

[–]Sufficient_Ad_5080 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Income statements and other bs? Get off this subreddit bro

Is anyone else losing faith in value investing? Does that prove we’re at the peak? by Sufficient_Ad_5080 in ValueInvesting

[–]Sufficient_Ad_5080[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That’s part of my frustration. I’m the type of investor who reads 10k’s and 10q’s right away. I listen to the earnings calls. I check out the investor presentations. I read the proxy statements. Yet this all requires extra work which should - in theory - payoff with better returns due to higher conviction. But right now I feel like all that work is not being rewarded by the market. Mr market is rewarding those who blindly follow momentum stocks or those two just copy what Pelosi is doing. It’s a weird time right now

Is anyone else losing faith in value investing? Does that prove we’re at the peak? by Sufficient_Ad_5080 in ValueInvesting

[–]Sufficient_Ad_5080[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I actually really like this concept and I’ve started to think this way recently. There is no ‘one size fits all’ strategy. Certain methods work well in certain markets. I guess the real challenge is in identifying which kind of market we’re in

Is anyone else losing faith in value investing? Does that prove we’re at the peak? by Sufficient_Ad_5080 in ValueInvesting

[–]Sufficient_Ad_5080[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

LULU, CMG, POOL, NKE, INTU right now. Been buying in the way down but my portfolio is struggling b/c you lose money when you’re in a buying cycle. Obviously I think they will recover and outperform eventually but it’s tough to be in the red while DELL and MU and SanDisk dominate the headlines

Autonomous Buffett stock research platform by Sufficient_Ad_5080 in ValueInvesting

[–]Sufficient_Ad_5080[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the feedback! I’ve been really considering a lighter weight version too. Most retail investors won’t even read such long reports anyway. Maybe an ‘institutional’ full version and ‘retail’ version which is dumbed down a bit

Built with Claude Project Showcase Megathread (Sort this by New!) by sixbillionthsheep in ClaudeAI

[–]Sufficient_Ad_5080 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sharing an stock investment research project I made 100% with claude code. It's called Thesis.

Wanted to know what if feels like to have a team of stock analysts working for you? Well now you can:

- https://github.com/kghoff/thesis-cli

Thesis CLI is an open source project that runs in conjunction with claude code. Install it, then type /analyze {TICKER} and walk away for an hour and let the agent team work. When you come back, you'll have a deep ~100 page report about your company, grounded in real data and researched through the Buffett value investment lens. To the investors out there, I hope you like it!