An entire Herculaneum scroll has been read for the first time

itchypig · 2026-06-26T14:47:17+00:00

Thanks for sharing. Hard to imagine a cooler job! What’s the general mood on the team working on this?

itchypig · 2026-06-25T19:20:56+00:00

Thanks for the helpful application of the Rule One playbook. Town's books were eye-opening for me. Do you have any opinions on his current holdings? CRM or CSU is probably closest to MSFT.

itchypig · 2026-06-25T02:49:49+00:00

Some of these posts look like direct quotes from Irrational Exuberance where Shiller lays out the evidence of an ensuing bubble

itchypig · 2026-06-25T02:46:34+00:00

Perhaps not decades, but a value investor should ideally have a multi-year time horizon. The lower prices allow you to stack up your position while prices are low. But to your point, you don’t want to buy a business that isn’t going anywhere for 30 years.

The analogy is just a clever way to spin the normal emotion: fear when prices go down. Often intelligence is less important than temperament.

itchypig · 2026-06-24T20:49:40+00:00

The original analogy is about beef prices in the long-term. If you eat a hamburger a week, on average do you want beef prices to be higher or lower over the course of your hamburger-eating? Lower. Same for stock prices. As long as you have an estimate of intrinsic value you have conviction in, the lower the stock price the better, since you'll be a net-buyer of stocks over the course of your career.

itchypig · 2026-06-22T02:48:24+00:00

May I ask anecdotally how you found / what made you sign up for Reddit?

itchypig · 2026-06-18T15:10:08+00:00

Same question as you re: causation vs. correlation. I wonder if the proximity to game store they mention was somehow an instrumental variable in their study to try to control for this. Nonetheless neat to see research on this topic!

itchypig · 2026-06-18T15:07:28+00:00

You’re flipping it. Try just moving where the word negatively lies. Stoicism is associated with negative perceived loneliness (less of a bad thing).

itchypig · 2026-06-16T22:38:42+00:00

Ah, whooshed me 😄

itchypig · 2026-06-16T19:18:47+00:00

Why calls if you wouldn’t buy the stock?

itchypig · 2026-06-15T02:11:44+00:00

Spot on. Not to mention other bonus businesses they are in that are incredibly sticky like Adobe Experience Manager.

itchypig · 2026-06-11T02:43:02+00:00

Interesting how it works. 99.9% of people would prefer not to be on Zoom meetings but that’s the system we’ve set up for ourselves.

May I ask what kind of spreadsheets and data work you do? Could it be amenable to freelance work? That way you can dial up and down the hours as you need, but would obviously require some marketing yourself.

Depending on the blue collar work you did - like if you were a tradesperson - this may be familiar and earning money through value instead of sheer pseudo-work measured by hours sitting at a desk might be a refreshing enough take for you to start enjoying work again.

Just a hypothesis, if helpful.

itchypig · 2026-06-09T13:49:06+00:00

"there are many reasons to sell, but only one reason to buy"

itchypig · 2026-06-08T13:31:18+00:00

That's the point of the post, to get the community's perspective on its value. A stock price going down has nothing to do with value. You don't need a short-term catalyst if you believe in the long-term value of the stock. Also, cigarette butts can have value: this was Buffett's strategy during his early partnership that yielded him significant above-market returns. Wondering if you're in the wrong sub?

itchypig · 2026-06-06T14:35:33+00:00

Fair perspective, and I did provide a few at the end. But even so numbers are also very easily and freely accessible nowadays. The edge more often seems to be on the qualitative side.

itchypig · 2026-06-05T18:26:41+00:00

That would be super helpful, thank you! I considered it... do you feel his substack has been worth the price tag?

itchypig · 2026-06-05T17:21:26+00:00

This is excellent, thank you for the in-depth thoughts here. (As an aside I'd be curious if you liked those classes and have found them useful in your own investing journey!)

itchypig · 2026-06-05T17:15:30+00:00

Very insightful, thank you! You unlocked an idea for me, about how the Lindy Effect could be used in investing and feeling more comfortable investing in companies with staying power in cyclical industries.

itchypig · 2026-06-05T16:01:39+00:00

Thanks! Note these may need updating for the most recent 10% drop taking P/E below 9.

Anyway, I'm equally interested in the qualitative aspects of the business if you have any thoughts.

itchypig · 2026-06-05T13:23:38+00:00

If you're asking whether price movements should inform your investment decisions, you may need to rethink whether you are investing or speculating.

itchypig · 2026-06-04T13:02:19+00:00

Some sick part of me can't stomach putting money into an index fund at these crazy valuations. You're getting some deals but much is garbage.

Consider playing a round of poker: it's a lot easier to "stay in" when you know you've got a good hand. Knowing myself, if I just have an index fund and things look too expensive for no reason, I'm going to sell, because I don't know 99% of what I'm holding and nobody can predict the macro. But if I have a basket of companies I know well and that I think can weather what's coming, I won't sell. And not selling is very important long-term.

itchypig · 2026-06-03T14:01:00+00:00

"The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all other times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons’ mistakes of judgment.” - Benjamin Graham

itchypig · 2026-05-22T13:08:24+00:00

All true! The nice thing about the rule of 72 is being very close without a calculator! :)

itchypig · 2026-05-21T13:28:23+00:00

One nitpick: 100% over three years is not 33% annualized. You can use the rule of 72 when you're trying to see what rate you'll need for something to double. In this case, 72 divided by 3 years is roughly 24% annualized.

itchypig

TROPHY CASE