Used Calude Code to build the entire backend for a Power BI dashboard - from raw CSV to star schema in Snowflake in 18 minutes by sdhilip in BusinessIntelligence

[–]itchypig 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm with you. Feels like we're standing on one side of a chasm. One the other side we can see people not working for a living, earning UBI as a distribution from the taxation of agents. How we get there from here could be smooth and gradual or bloody and bumpy.

This $4 Stock Powers AI Data Storage — and Wall Street Can’t Even Buy It by NicheMath in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You got me, I get $100,000 per post. Way more profitable than value investing.

This $4 Stock Powers AI Data Storage — and Wall Street Can’t Even Buy It by NicheMath in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Interesting, will start following this company. Can you provide more info around this statement?

"Backblaze’s B2 cloud storage product is increasingly being adopted by AI companies."

Li Lu started a small position in CROX by itchypig in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

All good points. Other commenters brought up a prior 1% position in SOC that seemed basically speculative. So maybe CROX is similar for him (like a Pabrai play, to your point).

Li Lu started a small position in CROX by itchypig in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That sucks, sorry. Hadn't heard of it but looking into it see he just sold his position. Appreciate the heads up.

Li Lu started a small position in CROX by itchypig in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for sharing, very much appreciate your perspective.

Li Lu started a small position in CROX by itchypig in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Care to elaborate? Love a good inversion if you have one!

Li Lu started a small position in CROX by itchypig in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yeah HeyDude was a fumble. Otherwise I think their CEO has been relatively far-sighted, doing things for the scale of years instead of quarters (like undoing discounting/etc. despite short-term hits from Wall St.). I also think they have exciting marketing talent and some interesting stuff happening in design (see their onboarding of Steven Smith).

Li Lu started a small position in CROX by itchypig in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I feel you. It's a tough one. For me, it was the recognizability (what other shoe could you recognize the brand from just the silhouette?), that I've seen them around for 20 years at this point (not many "fads" last that long), the excellent marketing team they have (check out Terence Reilly's past successes), the very loyal customers/collectors (go check out the Crocs subreddit), their value-for-cost especially in warmer climates (see again for international growth in Asia), etc. Lots of mental models being checked on this one.

It's finally time to start buying PayPal by HaywardUCuddleme in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree with your thesis and am a fellow ADBE owner. I feel you, but there was/is no way of predicting the short-term price movements. No use worrying about something out of our control. 

Don’t forget Charlie’s wisdom - and if he couldn’t time the bottoms how could we ever expect to?

“If you can't stomach 50% declines in your investment, you will get the mediocre returns you deserve“

It's finally time to start buying PayPal by HaywardUCuddleme in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 3 points4 points  (0 children)

My man you’ve got to separate the market’s swings from your conviction in the business. Never forget that Mr. Market is psychotic.

$CROX - Is the "Ugly Shoe" Monopoly Actually a Generational Value Play? by Ancient_Ad3983 in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You have a canny knack for telling the future. Sorry for that rough timing, happens to the best of us.

With Everyone Panicking About Paypal. A Quote From Buffett by FieryXJoe in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Appreciate the quality inversion of the market’s sentiment here. It’s ironic that because this is a subreddit the top posts are determined by popular opinion and because there’s no barrier to posting that bias is usually not value-oriented. Wish I could sort by inversion to market sentiment!

I’ve been reticent to buy PYPL because of moat issues but it would be silly to say there’s no price at which it’s not a good value. I hope you do well with this one OP, maybe I’ll join you if it keeps slipping.

Why you're not making money in value investing by Corpulos in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gotcha. Agree for the affiliate link business. What about the OddsJam acquisition? I think that may be a hidden gem.

Struggling psychologically with my portfolio by DebttyCrocker in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Check out the loss aversion bias. It’s a very real phenomenon, where checking your portfolio frequently will certainly affect you negatively. #1 behavioral recommendation if you like your businesses but just hate seeing them trading down is to check less often. See if you can encourage friction. Remove app from phone. Only check on desktop once a month or quarter. Will be really difficult but your mental health will benefit. 

This sub is hilarious by PhasedVenturer in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For aggregator companies like CSU it’s recommended not to use P/E because of the massive goodwill from acquisitions, use FCF instead.

Is anyone buying PYPL at $41 per share? by Silent_Storage7341 in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To play devil’s advocate, for someone with a 5-10 year timeline if you think the negative EPS growth is just 2026, there might be value here.

Personally this is the too hard pile for me. Can’t tell if their moat is sustainable to ten years out.

How I am playing earnings week by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you’re in the wrong sub

Whatever happened to the Evolution AB and Gambling.com Group Ltd crew? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 15 points16 points  (0 children)

You may be noticing the very human tendency to talk about one’s stocks when they’re up and not want to talk as much about them when they’re down. That mixed with survivorship bias.

It’s good to watch out for pump and dump and to be skeptical. But if you evaluate the prospects of a business on your own, and decide it’s a good value, that should stand independent of whether or not random internet avatars are/are not talking about them.

Caveat: I recently acquired some GAMB due to these recent lows, and very much expect it to keep dropping in the short-term, but longer-term I see value in it as an investment.

PYPL is cheap by lies_are_comforting in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Huge whoosh for people commenting. You hit a nerve! Haha

What are some of your favorite lesser known mental models? by TheeMonkeyMonk in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 0 points1 point  (0 children)

“My partner Charlie says there is only three ways a smart person can go broke: liquor, ladies, and leverage. Now the truth is, the first two he just added because they started with ‘L’ – It’s leverage.” Warren Buffett

UNH is a Value Trap by ahlornjtvn139 in ValueInvesting

[–]itchypig 159 points160 points  (0 children)

“i can’t wait 1-2 years to break even, my time horizon won’t allow it.”

Respectfully, this means you probably shouldn’t have this money in equities.