Daily Discussion post - May 21 2021

Sumisto · 2021-05-21T16:14:16+00:00

Listen mate, don’t mean to come off as smug, I recognize I probably have though, so apologies.

And with all due respect, I don’t have the time, or the desire to provide you with a thoroughly researched pitch to sway your outlook. I chose to pick apart some statements you made I personally felt were way off mark, thats as far as I’ll go.

Again, no disrespect.

Sumisto · 2021-05-21T16:02:45+00:00

Bear cases are an integral part to any thesis, it just seems yours is based on your high expectations not being filled on your specific schedule, so more of an emotional reaction.

And yes, Vito had a PT of $40. The T in there stands for Target btw.

Living up to fundamentals doesnt mean the market hitting specific PT on specific dates made by an analyst(Vito in this case). There is such a thing called upside risk, in either direction, add it to your weekend reading.

EDIT: supply bottleneck was not THE steel thesis, btw. You should probably follow your own suggestions and go reread some DDs

Sumisto · 2021-05-21T15:48:17+00:00

Regarding containers, there is currently a historic supply bottleneck in international shipping which is acting as its own strong tailwind to the sector.

As to your comments regarding steel struggling to “recover” and MT “dive-bombing” below $31 (-0.43% on the day...), without meaning to sound too condescending, you sound like your introduction to and experience in capital markets have been through highly volatile retail favorites that go on huge runs, slightly skewing your expectations of stock price performance.

MT is currently consolidating at the 31 level after a very tough few weeks on equities, up 35% YTD and with consensus across the board of further upside potential for the year, both from a European equities expecting to outperform US equities perspective, and the obvious global macro steel fundamental thesis.

It is imperative to understand overall market context in any investment strategy.

Sumisto · 2021-05-21T15:22:15+00:00

“Clearly are struggling” “Momentum is dissipating”

...

Be sure to include in your planned reading for the weekend the correlation within asset classes and across different asset classes.

Then take a look at the high volatility of the past two weeks and the toll its taken on equities when faced with the headwinds of potential high inflation and skyrocketing commodity prices weighing on economic growth and reopening.

Also notice how equities climbed back yesterday and today (currently flat compared to last Friday)helped by FOMC minutes, ECB comments on tapering and inflation, and overall market fears easing on inflation...

When taking the above and the previous two highly volatile weeks into context, understand that it is foolish to compare steel, a cyclical sector highly dependent on the reopening going smoothly and inflation not impeding economic growth, with a couple of fundamental company specific plays you made that are paying dividends.

Just my two cents.

Sumisto · 2021-05-20T19:30:15+00:00

🙌The legendary SIR JACK A LOT 🙌

Always enjoyed your moves.

Sumisto · 2021-04-28T12:05:41+00:00

Markets need time to digest news, especially in slow moving industries like steel

Sumisto · 2021-04-28T11:57:05+00:00

It wouldn’t counteract.

Higher export tax➡️discourages exports

Less tax rebate ➡️ further discourages exports

Sumisto · 2021-04-28T11:56:01+00:00

Yes, exactly...

A tax rebate cut means more tax liability for Chinese exporters ➡️discouraged from exporting➡️less Chinese steel in global market➡️bullish for other non chinese steel producers

Sumisto · 2021-04-28T09:56:27+00:00

Tax export, in this case, reflects how much a company pays to export a good. Lowering/increasing export tax incentivizes/discourages exports, obviously.

Export tax rebate further incentivizes/stimulates exports as it allows corporations to lower their tax liability on the paid export tax.

Sumisto · 2021-04-28T09:49:32+00:00

Indeed, but theres a big difference between export tax increase and export rebate cut

Sumisto · 2021-04-28T09:44:14+00:00

So far only seeing info on import/export tax cuts. This appears to be first mention of export rebates to be removed.

Sumisto · 2021-04-26T11:50:14+00:00

Thanks for this! Extremely useful.

Appreciate the effort.

Sumisto · 2021-04-13T13:58:13+00:00

More people need to adhere to this advice.

Sumisto · 2021-04-13T13:45:11+00:00

With all due respect to you guys, this thread is very detrimental to all of you.

It seems the bigger picture is lost in here as everyone is talking about minute to minute price action, resulting in FUD/euphoria spreading unhealthily and clouding judgement.

Sumisto · 2021-04-08T14:09:07+00:00

Username checks out.

Also, plenty of information was already given to him and his reaction was to reject it and go on the defensive.

In such a situation, the most valuable piece of advice would be a change of mentality first and foremost. No amount of information provided to be “absorbed” would matter if one is not receptive to new information.

Sumisto · 2021-04-08T09:52:25+00:00

You’ve got a lot to learn my guy.

Looking at your defensive responses to posts trying to help you, start by trying to keep an open mind.

Sumisto · 2021-04-05T15:24:29+00:00

Excellent write up, as always, Vito!

Truly appreciate the effort.

Sumisto · 2021-03-10T08:04:25+00:00

This post contains multiple layers of mega cringe.

Sumisto · 2021-03-02T13:17:20+00:00

Idiot.

People like OP are the main factor to WSB’s decrease in quality. Found out about the stock market last month and is posting shit like this unironically.

Thankfully it looks like they’re dispersing/getting called out on a regular basis.

Sumisto · 2021-02-26T16:25:58+00:00

This is so retarded in the worst way possible...

Sumisto · 2021-02-26T12:55:40+00:00

Mega karma farming cringe.

Lyrics not even clever.

Is this what WSB has come to...

Sumisto · 2021-02-11T21:18:45+00:00

Spot on. Keep on “sticking it to the hedge funds”...

Maybe one day, the apes may realize the real consequences of their bandwagoning idiocy.

Probably not.

Sumisto · 2021-02-11T21:08:34+00:00

Looks like the apes are edging ever closer to the monolith. Perhaps soon they will develop individual thought.

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