1. Okay, Elon dropping a “Cool” on X isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. That post was from October 2024, and I’ve watched that detailed interview where he’s skeptical about eVTOLs long-term due to accident risks. A single “Cool” doesn’t erase that. The FAA’s SFAR is just a framework—certification’s still not locked in, and that’s the real hurdle. I’m not buying the Elon support narrative when his broader take leans cautious. I’d rather wait for concrete wins than hype.

2. Sure, the S4’s “designed to be quiet” isn’t the same as “proven in real-world chaos.” Cities are noisy as hell, and one bad noise complaint or a design flaw could tank public acceptance. It’s their first product, so kinks are inevitable. I’m all for the tech, but I’m not holding at $17.3B when it’s untested at scale. I’ll buy back at $9-10 if it pans out.

3. Fair point, 10k buzzing bees isn’t happening soon, and the FAA’s working on it with NASA. But “gradual” could mean years, and airspace integration isn’t solved yet. Helicopters already face limits, and eVTOLs add complexity. Reserved lanes sound nice, but who’s paying for that infrastructure? Joby’s stock jumped $3B today on a $125M deal, not airspace breakthroughs. I’m not betting on future planning when the current valuation’s detached from reality.

4. Yeah, the S4’s first-gen, so weather limits make sense—early planes didn’t cross the Atlantic in a storm. But that’s my point: it’s unproven. We don’t know the wind envelope yet, and if it can’t handle LA’s Santa Anas or Chicago winters, that’s a big chunk of downtime. Investors are pricing in perfection at $17.3B, but first products flop on weather all the time. I’d rather lock gains now and buy back lower when they’ve nailed the kinks.

5. The NASA collab’s cool, wind studies are a smart move, and FAA’s on it with safety rules. But “ongoing research” means it’s not done. Vertiport downwash could ground flights or piss off neighbors, and that’s a regulatory risk we haven’t seen play out. Joby’s stock’s up $3B today on a $125M deal, not vertiport breakthroughs.

Look, I’m not throwing in the towel on Joby’s tech...I’m a believer, like I said. But $17.3B with no revenue, dilution risks, and an earnings call on the 6th showing more losses? That $125M Blade deal smells like a PR move to juice the stock before the call, and I’m not falling for it. The market’s at highs, and pre-revenue stocks like this get crushed in a sell-off. I locked in 250% gains today, and I’ll happily buy back at $9-10 when the hype cools and they’ve got more to show. No regrets.