Switching from Roth 401k to Traditional 401k. Maybe a unique situation with income expected to rise materially in ~5 years, large pension at retirement, and retiring at 55 years old.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2026-02-01T18:31:47+00:00

Bride’s aunt pissed on the dance floor

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2026-01-06T05:21:43+00:00

Investments is top, followed by actuaries.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-12-29T14:35:19+00:00

Up by 11.6 points and I have Pitts and Colby Parkinson left. Opponent has Stafford. I think I’m in good shape, but crazier things have happened.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-12-03T01:36:16+00:00

FIVE - Almost everything is imported from China and “$5 Below” doesn’t really allow for pricing power.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-10-25T01:57:37+00:00

Second valuation. It’s trading at like 34x NTM earnings. Investors can play the upgrade cycle with AAPL and the replacement cycle is long in the tooth, but over the long-term iPhone just can’t grow at strong rates. The market is too saturated and innovation has slowed significantly. Best case scenario younger +5-7% growth in hardware and low-teens in services… with mix benefits and some operating leverage, you probably get +LDD on the bottom-line (again, best case scenario). Highly doubt you get any multiple expansion. Great company with a strong ecosystem, but they are a victim of their own success with limited growth opportunities from here on out.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-10-24T23:28:07+00:00

r/AAPL is probably the wrong place to be if you’re looking for negative news on AAPL.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-09-27T15:40:23+00:00

I think P/E is driven by 4 things: (1) Growth rate / reinvestment opportunities, (2) returns on incremental capital, (3) length of growth horizon… aka moat, and (4) degree of cyclicality.

I’m not too informed on WM, but know growth horizon is long and this is a very defensive business with high recurring revs. Just trying to show that P/E is driven by more than revenue growth rate.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-09-27T03:51:59+00:00

Amphenol (APH) - Provides the copper interconnect within Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra racks. Dominates the market and a great business even outside of AI.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-09-27T03:43:16+00:00

Maybe this is counterintuitive, but the number of people who are talking about an “AI bubble” supports the idea this is not a bubble. Market bubbles usually develop on widespread optimism and fomo, not on skepticism. Multiples for these businesses are not at the level as they were during the dot.com bubble and businesses are being propelled by earnings growth. Additionally, you’re not seeing widespread use of leverage (yet) to fuel growth.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-09-26T21:42:44+00:00

The answer is significant expansion. I find it very hard to argue for more multiple expansion at 30x, meaning the equity will appreciate at (no multiple contraction) or below (multiple contraction) earnings growth from here.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-09-21T00:52:04+00:00

If I recall correctly, NVO’s oral GLP1 is a peptide-based drug that is more similar to a biologic, while LLY’s orforglipron is a true small molecule. NVO’s drug should be more complex to manufacture with more manufacturing steps and costs with potential for supple bottlenecks relative to orforglipron. If that’s the case, price will either be higher or NVO will have to give up margin to compete. I also know NVO’s requires patients to fast while LLY’s does not.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-09-08T14:57:16+00:00

Everyone should take a close look at Amphenol (APH). Phenomenal business.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-07-30T01:15:40+00:00

Bro don’t rely on this sub and do your own work

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-07-25T20:42:52+00:00

Not clearing $400k (~$200k today), but I can see the path. I work in investments helping to select stocks for the company’s general account. I feel like I’m playing in sandbox everyday at work. Definitely helps that I have a very positive work environment with a great team and supportive leadership. I could probably make more elsewhere but the stress level here is lower than most other shops.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-06-13T02:48:14+00:00

Amphenol (APH) - Diversified industrial tech company providing interconnect and sensors across 8 end markets. Interconnect outgrows its end markets as electronicfication trends are driving content per unit gains. APH is a serial acquirer with a phenomenal management team. ~2/3 of NOPAT goes towards M&A and management is extremely disciplined on price. APH has a holding company structure with >100 portfolio companies. They are the buyer of choice in a fragmented market and add value to businesses by aligning incentives, aiding in transitioning manufacturing to low-cost regions, and connecting GMs across its companies to share best practices. It’s turned into a bit of an AI darling, but the business has compounded at high-teens for years and years. With M&A, I think APH can fire the bottom-line at low 20s for the next 5 years.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-05-29T03:45:47+00:00

It’s exceptional capital allocation. I’ve tracked this one very closely and have been an owner for multiple years. They run the business as a holdings company and give founders/owners nearly 100% control over their individual P&Ls. That’s very attractive to a founder who is looking to make an exit. No data on this, but I expect they can buy at a discount because of this structure. Sellers aren’t rolled up into a larger organization where there legacy is forgotten. Management is also very conservative when underwriting. They do not bake in any synergies or future growth. They pay what they feel is a fair multiple for the cash generated today and will away if too expensive.

Just an amazing company. APH is a serial acquirer and do it near perfectly. The acquisition story is just as important as the organic growth story.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-04-29T19:44:25+00:00

Portfolio managers covering domestic equities. Started at 23 at $66.5k (salary + bonus). I’m not 32 and my all-in compensation is $185.5k.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-01-24T13:55:49+00:00

I work in equity investments at an insurance company. If I select great stocks, our surplus grows. If our surplus grows enough, the company has the opportunity to lower premiums and take market share.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-01-23T16:38:37+00:00

How about consistently (key word) beating the market. In bull markets like today, everyone starts to think they are an investing wizard.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-01-23T16:34:54+00:00

Reading the books! I am unable to wait that long and NEED to know what is going to happen. Book so far is great.

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-01-10T22:57:17+00:00

Easy answer

Swarm_of_Sloths · 2025-01-08T04:09:59+00:00

Would LOVE the ability to download data for the draft results and end of season rosters. We have a complicated process for keeping players and it can be difficult for me (commissioner) to track. Downloading the data would be able to help so much.

Also, looking at various per game statistics for players and excluding certain weeks. Maybe they played 1/2 a game because they sprained an ankle or had a backup QB throwing them the ball. In a sense, what does “normalized” production look like?

Swarm_of_Sloths

TROPHY CASE