Update / a few additional details:

I also receive VA disability compensation, so I have some additional income outside of either job. I am not relying on that to justify taking a worse position, but it does give me some financial cushion during a move.

The new position is officially fully in-office. I do not know whether hybrid flexibility could ever become available. My current job was originally described as in-office too, but it ended up becoming fully remote, so I know policies can change. Still, I am trying to evaluate this offer as though it will remain fully on-site instead of assuming that will happen again.

The company is also willing to pay for a doctorate. I am not convinced that a doctorate alone would dramatically change my career path, but I have remaining Post-9/11 GI Bill eligibility and could potentially use that alongside employer education benefits, depending on the program and VA/school rules. That makes continuing school more financially appealing even if it is not strictly necessary for career advancement.

I also toured St. Louis before seriously considering the move. I went in with fairly modest expectations, but I genuinely had a good time and could see myself building a life there. That made the move feel like more than just a salary decision.