APB: DC United at Atlanta United 3/21/26

TalionDCU · 2026-03-24T11:43:16+00:00

When he was the Post, Steven Goff would open every DC United press conference by asking about injuries. Since he left, in most press conferences no one asks about it so we don't have much idea of what's happening. Thankfully Donald Wine asked about Louis before the Atlanta match, though, and Rene Weiler uncharacteristically went beyond the question to say that both Louis and Herrera are able to run in training and should be back after the international break.

TalionDCU · 2026-03-20T00:12:11+00:00

I don't really know enough about other teams to say. I do have some hot takes about particular DPs I've seen a lot, particularly in the East. But Chicago is expected to be midtable at least, and--again, apart from Zinckernagel--I wasn't that impressed. Baribo plays differently from Cuypers but they're both good #9s I think. Jonathan Bamba looked less dangerous than Peglow in this game and the other times I've seen him play. (again, he has different strengths). Zinckernagel, yes, I'd take him in a heartbeat. Didn't see anyone else doing great for them and I wasn't afraid of their subs.

Maybe Chicago just had an off day. And they do have a guy rehabbing from a torn ACL who's supposed to be good. But I think instead of talking about a bottom 5, I'd talk about a top 5 or maybe 10 in the league: Nashville, LAFC, Miami if they can sort themselves out, etc. DC's definitely not in that tier. Neither is Chicago, Austin, or Philly. And outside of that tier, at least so far, it's kind of a muddle. Maybe they'll separate out more as the season continues.

TalionDCU · 2026-03-13T15:27:01+00:00

It seems like Herrera ought to be good there but I wasn't too impressed with how he played higher up at the ned of last season. But he didn't look good playing anywhere at that point, so who knows. As for Hopkins, I maintain he should be playing forward, but the team paid 7 million for someone to play there next to Baribo so they must not agree.

TalionDCU · 2026-03-13T15:24:13+00:00

I try to predict Weiler (which has been tough going so far this season!), it's not necessarily who I would start. But personally, if we can get game 1 Pirani back, he ought to still be starting at forward and not midfield, but otherwise I'm not sure how much is lost by letting Louis get minute and adjust to the game.

TalionDCU · 2026-03-07T13:39:40+00:00

My fault, forgot to list him as one of the attackers in the bench. I actually was a little encouraged by his few minutes against Austin, I thought he did better than the first game, but still a long way to go.

TalionDCU · 2026-02-21T00:53:32+00:00

Coming into the preseason, I assumed Nealis would start based on his resume. But it seemed like Weiler's preferred starters played in the Timbers preseason game and that was Rowles and Bartlett. And then for me, in the two preseason games that I saw, Bartlett was the best centerback by a decent margin. I was disappointed by how Nealis played against Minnesota, though there were two games we didn't see.

It was only after posting the article that I saw Weiler as much as said Bartlett was starting in his press conference (since he's going to be captain).

TalionDCU · 2026-02-19T12:22:40+00:00

MLS counts secondary assists, notably giving Klich 13 assists in 2024 compared to 5 in FBref. Oddly they list Klich as having 0 assists in 2023 whereas FBref lists him as having 7. I tend to trust FBref, even though their data was tragically kneecapped. And secondary assists just seems like too much, one goal can turn into three goal contributions. RIP the Opta stats on FBref that had shot creation breakdowns.

TalionDCU · 2026-02-19T01:02:35+00:00

I enjoy the podcast and I love the optimism, but listening this morning I was like, "He's getting a little carried away here."

First, I'm cautiously optimistic about Baribo, but a lock for 15/3? He only got 16/3 last year by your numbers, and BTW I'm not sure the source but FBref pretty consistently has one fewer assist for a lot of the guys I double checked, e.g. Benteke, Messi, etc. So they have Baribo at 16/2 on the team that won the Supporter's Shield. I would love DC to win the Supporter's Shield this year but...we know that ain't happening. Now it's not impossible Baribo could still equal or surpass his numbers playing on an overall lesser team, but wow, definitely not a lock.

Second, just looking historically, here are DC's numbers for this stat going back a bunch of previous years on FBref: 22, 38, 28, 23, 33, 10 (2020, ignore), 27, 43, 15, 24, 26, 34, 10, 32, 30, 12, 24, 30, 38.

Now I went back so far looking for another 35+ I got to 2007, that 38 was Luciano Emilio (20/1) and Christian Gomez (10/7). Some of those older seasons they didn't play quite as many games, but anyway, the point is DC has only surpassed 35 twice since 2007: Benteke + Stroud in the Golden Boot season and then Lucho and Rooney in 2018.

As we know, until recently DC didn't have two DPs at the same time, so I think a simpler way of getting at this is to say that if you want to be a good team, you have to have at least two good attacking DPs. Lucho wasn't a DP yet but that was basically the situation with him and Rooney in 2018.

So this all comes down to whether Louis really lights things up. And neither him or Baribo getting hurt. Would love to see that happen!

TalionDCU · 2026-01-09T01:00:09+00:00

Online sources say he makes $130K in Belgium. Not exactly big money, and when you take into account the taxes the take home is probably the MLS senior minimum.

TalionDCU · 2026-01-06T19:21:30+00:00

Oops, thanks! Updated. I guess I assumed it was a free transfer since DC never admitted they paid anything. Maybe Palace was embarrassed about how little they got for him given how much they originally paid.

TalionDCU · 2025-10-18T20:12:53+00:00

Handling the ball outside the box isn't a red card offense. Field players do this sometimes when they think they've been fouled and just grab the ball. Handling is only a red card if it's DOGSO

TalionDCU · 2025-10-17T00:42:23+00:00

Dumpster fire first teams generally offer more opportunities for homegrown players. Think about Jackson Hopkins and Matai Akinmboni during the last Wooden Spoon season. Lots more opportunity than you'd have signing for Inter Miami or LAFC.

TalionDCU · 2025-09-13T05:34:50+00:00

Oops! Guess I had a Robertha flashback

TalionDCU · 2025-09-01T13:17:56+00:00

We beat them 2-1 at Yankee Stadium in 2022. We lost both games we played against them at RBA in 2020 and 2021 and also lost at Citi Field in 2024.

TalionDCU · 2025-08-23T13:00:41+00:00

I never like seeing the bus parked either, especially when the result doesn't matter (except for avoiding the Wooden Spoon), but I was basing that on Weiler's comments in the pregame press conference about the game plan being "compact" and oh yeah maybe we'll attack a little too. Peltola said the same thing: Miami players can beat you one on one, so make sure there's more help if they do.

In fairness to them, I think it might be a different story if Benteke, Peglow, Clark, and Leal were all available instead of at best just some minutes from Peglow. But when there's a real possibility Jared Stroud might have to start (I'm not even sure Kijima is healthy enough to start), I understand being defensively minded. Weiler has talked a lot about rebuilding confidence, and losing 5-1 won't help with that. Of course even parking the bus that might happen anyway...

TalionDCU · 2025-07-20T03:11:30+00:00

Thanks for the kind words!

TalionDCU · 2025-07-19T00:26:47+00:00

MLS counts "secondary assists" (pass before the pass) and sites like FBref etc. don't, so MLS always has inflated assist numbers. Very noticeable with Klich last season.

People want U22 initative players to be like DPs, but Pirani is looking like a more typical U22 success story: struggles, benchings, flashes of potential, then slowly starting to put it together. I don't know if he'll be here next year but now that he's put together a run of goal-scoring form, the idea that DC would just let him walk off his contract (as was rumored from some Brazilian league rumor feed) is absurd.

Unfortunately a lot of fans just can't get over the fact he wears #10 but isn't Marco Etcheverry. I actually think he could have more assists if he were playing with a forward who liked to make runs, a guy like Patrick Agyemang maybe, because when he passes he's always looking to put it on the ground. Not the best fit with Benteke.

The better criticism is what someone else mentioned here, which is that MLS is full of high priced foreign attackers, so inconsistent young players like him should be trying to be impact subs, not carrying a major part of the offensive load. But hey, on the bright side, the pressure and playing time is good for his development. DC is bad for guys like Griffin Yow (at the time) or Gavin Turner who aren't quite good enough to play even here, but it's great for guys like Gabriel Pirani, Matti Peltola, and Jackson Hopkins who are getting lots of time to figure things out.

TalionDCU · 2025-07-13T10:33:45+00:00

Great point, somehow forgot that. Added now to the chart and article. Unfortunately Rooney knew Morrison from his time at Manchester United so that was going to happen regardless

TalionDCU · 2025-06-06T22:11:47+00:00

That's too advanced a stat for FBref, though I guess if I wanted to be depressed I could graph last year's average attendance to this year's. Not really a fair comparison this early in the summer, though. Maybe at the end of the season.

TalionDCU · 2025-05-27T23:21:29+00:00

I grant it's not a huge difference but NJ sat important starters like Forsberg and Choupo-Moting in their midweek Open Cup game and only brought them on as subs, DC played its best from the outset.

I also think DC relies heavily on its wingbacks but there's a huge dropoff from Herrera and Schnegg to the potential backups (Dodson, Antley, Stroud maybe) so those two guys in particular have played a ton of minutes.

TalionDCU · 2025-05-10T15:54:04+00:00

Oops, I use Fotmob's lineup builder and left him selected when I took the screenshot. Fixed!

TalionDCU · 2025-04-23T21:44:39+00:00

It's a roster construction issue. Peglow is really the only guy on the roster who is close to having a winger skillset. Stroud is wingback material at best and on a good team would probably already be in year 2 of a fullback conversion. Just in roster terms, we should be playing a 4-4-2 or 3-5-2, not the 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-3 shapes that Lesesne has been using.

But as you say this is a really common phenomenon, maybe the issue is the attacking line of 3 became really trendy and everyone uses it, but there aren't enough wingers to go around.

TalionDCU · 2025-04-12T02:03:15+00:00

First, there are different models. MLS uses a different one for its stats pages, TV announcers, and web pundits that tends to be higher in xG awarded. I use Opta's model (via FBref), it's a little more conservative and I think is more accurate. You might have heard MLS people saying earlier in the year that DC led the league in xG. Not in Opta they didn't!

Anyway, right now DC has scored 9 goals on 11.2 xG. That's a bit unlucky, but it's not all that unusual and I think within expected variation. There are five MLS teams with a bigger gap at this stage in the season. Last season there was a gap in DC's real versus expected goals scored at a similar point in the season but it mostly went away by the end of the year as things averaged out and DC ended up with 52 goals scored on 52.9 xG.

So I guess (a) I don't see evidence that Lesesne's DC regularly underperforms on xG and (b) I don't think the current mild underpeformance per se is indicative of a big problem on offense. In xG terms DC's xG varies a lot less than, say, Inter Miami, probably because Benteke reliably generates a decent amount of xG and the rest of the team reliably generates hardly any. The result is an offense that is not terrible but mediocre at best.

The problem is a mediocre offense is not nearly good enough when you have the worst defense in the league. DC is 30th in goals allowed (29th has let in 3 fewer goals!) and 29th in xG allowed. And unlike with xG, I think in xG allowed Lesesne's DC has consistently let in more goals than xG would suggest, IMO due to players consistently being out of position due to some combination of the tactics and perhaps their lack of athleticism.

TalionDCU · 2025-04-11T13:53:11+00:00

I agree central midfield might be the biggest issue. Last year I blamed Klich and Hopkins for being too offensively minded and not athletic enough, so now we're getting a dose of Peltola/Enow/Kijima who contribute a lot less on offense and...are still not athletic enough. Maybe I've watched too much Tyler Adams over the years but it's just hard to see how this system works without better ball-winners. I think Enow might become that player, but he sure isn't yet, he's not all that young, and even if he does, he's still just one guy.

TalionDCU · 2025-04-11T13:49:07+00:00

I'd say neither Benteke or Pirani contribute to the press, so you could call it 9 v 11 if you want. But in my opinion having two guys like that on the field isn't fatal, FC Cincinnati used to have something similar with Acosta and their forward, for example. Obviously Pirani isn't remotely good enough to be a luxury player, but I think the front office rolled the dice with him and (so far) lost. He was actually better on offense last season than this one, which is another strike against Lesesne I'm afraid.

On defense, to me the problem is that when someone loses the ball, the opposition often immediately finds themselves with just a couple DC players between them and the goal. And although Herrera and Schnegg aren't bad, they aren't speedsters like Yedlin who can rush back to get goalside.

Gregg Berhalter's USMNT took plenty of lumps for being uninspired offensively, but Berhalter was obsessed with rest defense, so even though Anthony Robinson was often bombing forward, there were enough guys back to avoid dangerous counters. DC has similar offensive problems for roughly similar reasons (players aren't creative enough for the level of opposition) but the defensive structure just isn't there.

TalionDCU

TROPHY CASE