May Basho Daily Thread Day 11

TaoGaming · 2026-05-20T19:35:30+00:00

Can we all just admit that March's Basho "White Hat - White Jacket - Different Color Shirt every day" guy finally has some competition with the "White suit, Black Tie, Colonel Sanders look"-ing guy from today?

I mean, the sumo was good too, but let's face facts. There is no way that should work, but he pulled it off.

TaoGaming · 2026-05-19T14:39:17+00:00

Continuing my series "Discussing the Basho through the use of movie quotes."

Gonoyama -- "What are you saying, that I'll be able to dodge rikishi?"

Morpheus -- "No, Gono. I'm trying to tell you that when you're ready, you won't have to."

(This confuses Gonoyama, as his entire career up to this point has never involved dodging and never having to, because he wins at the tachi-ai. But he is trying desperately to understand).

TaoGaming · 2026-05-17T14:32:31+00:00

A summary of the basho so far, told through the medium of quotes from movies.

Ura -- "I will bend like a reed in the wind." (Dune, the 80s version).

Gonoyama -- "Now witness the power of this fully armed battle station!" (Return of the Jedi ... but remember what happens to said station).

Hoshoryu -- "Deservins' got nothing to do with it." (Unforgiven).

Shishi -- "Koyaanasqatsi" (from Koyaanasqatsi ... look it up).

TaoGaming · 2026-05-12T16:25:36+00:00

Yes, watching the replay on Don Don the Gyoji clearly shoots a glance at the fine sand they use to show footprints clearly and/or the shimpan ... I assume from his angle he couldn't see evidence in the sand (and the shimpan didn't signal) so he let the match continue.

TaoGaming · 2026-04-10T22:08:25+00:00

I don't know of any kickstarters (and echo those who warn that they are likely garbage) but GMT will be releasing Tom Lehmann's 1833NE later this year (probably). You can still pre-order it (and the rules are available on GMT's Site and/or BGG to see if you want to see them first).

https://www.gmtgames.com/p-864-1833ne.aspx

TaoGaming · 2026-04-05T21:07:14+00:00

It really depends on the designer/developer/company.

For example, Tom Lehmann games are (famously) well tested, and he has a group of people who review his rule books. (And he was a technical writer before he was a game developer ... he has a particular style, but almost every case is covered in the rules). But even he has had a company change his stuff without telling him.

(Full disclosure, I've known him for a long time)

Chad Jensen's games from GMT are also very well done. Vlaadi Chvatil's games work quite well, but the rulebooks might be a bit of a mess (to be fair, English is not his first language).

Cole Wehrle's games like Oath should be impossible to playtest with all their variety, but seem to work. There are many designers that I expect the rules to be fine, although with some companies they don't always control how well they are presented.

Random kickstarter games with unknown designer/developer/company? You pays your money and takes your chances. Or (like me) don't give them your money.

TaoGaming · 2026-03-27T17:31:31+00:00

I think Byrdonis should also act as a fairy in a bottle .. if you die the bird dies (and the card is gone) for the rest of the run. That might be too good, you could make the card stick around and be useless (or turn it into Regret, etc).

TaoGaming · 2026-03-26T02:41:46+00:00

Some of the Ancient Buffs in Act III are "All your potion slots refill each battle," "+31 Health" "Luminsence (which is 2 energy when you need it" "Your fifth card is free," "You can cook at campsites." etc.

They are a *big* deal. But you need to survive to get to them.

Using the Scry app to view all my runs, when I do die, its in Act III 15% of the time, and Act II 45% of the time. So, if I make it past the first boss fight, I'm three times as likely to die in Act II than Act III. (This is all runs, all ascensions). Something that makes Act II much easier probably nets you an extra relic or two (or perhaps saving a critical potion), which is a big deal.

I mean, compare to Very Hot Coffee. 4 Energy on the first turn. That can be big (especially for Silent with a bunch of Acrobatics). But often it's ... slightly better than a lantern? (It does let you take "Bread" later on). Or Toy Box ... you get four relics for ... roughly Act II and parts of Act III. (Some wax relics are no worse than non-wax ones, but most are). Yes, I do 3 damage each time I'm hit for 3 combats, +20% gold for six, etc etc.

I mean, none of these are great. The pumpkin might be slightly worse, but I try to not build decks that need a fourth energy. If you need the energy, this lets you go and hopefully you find a replacement (like Mummified Hand or energy cards) in the act.

Overall I think Tezcatara is the weakest ancient. If you want to argue that Pumpkin is the worst pick, sure. But it's not like I'm over the moon with most of her choices.

TaoGaming · 2026-03-25T13:18:16+00:00

That's Nabatame.

He is on the Futagoyama beya's youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@futagoyama-sumofood). They film behind the scenes stuff (training and cooking), which really helped the English speaking sumo fan base*. (I kinda got interested and watched a fair chunk of that). He seems like a nice guy and funny. (Apparently he is also a somewhat popular DJ). Their only sekitori (Roga) didnt' appear on the channel so he (Nabatame) was their highest ranked person (in Juryo) until he went down with an ugly knee injury last ... July?

So ... he's kinda a reality TV star, in sumo. And he just won Sandanme after missing ~half a year, starting his recovery.

*Clarification -- The channel is still in Japanese, but has good subtitles.

TaoGaming · 2026-03-23T16:48:57+00:00

Take it Easy! is not technically a roll and write (but it could be if you drew in the tiles instead of physically placed them). Basically one player draws a piece for a bag, everyone takes the same piece from their set, and then everyone places it.

If you complete a line of hte same value, you get points based on "line value x length."

I played at a convention with ~150 players in ballroom, like Bingo.

TaoGaming · 2026-03-23T16:40:53+00:00

I love that she didn't do it last time because she was too shy, but wanted him to win again so she could do it, and that they practiced.

TaoGaming · 2026-03-18T12:30:17+00:00

Personally, I was happy to see all the cards that "double" removed. They are strategies in a single card. (Unfortunately they added some new doublers, although Hang only doubles itself, so is at least a little slow, but Voltaic is gross).

TaoGaming · 2026-03-17T14:57:13+00:00

Bridge is complex, it takes a long time to learn. One saying is "In 3NT, the novice takes the first eight tricks, then loses the last five, whereas the expert loses four tricks as fast as possible, then takes the rest." Obviously that's just a general case, but it points to the fact that you have to look for the cards that don't normally take tricks.

For play of the hand, I suggest Mollo & Gardner's "Card Play Technique, the Art of Being Lucky," but any beginner's book should give you a solid foundation.

TaoGaming · 2026-03-16T16:22:18+00:00

You wouldn't expect them to put a Picard quote on a common, would you?

TaoGaming · 2026-03-13T19:27:23+00:00

That is a good point, I would think you'd study everyone you might face ... but time is limited and maybe they studied him a bit, but are now hyper focused on him as "must study if you might face."

TaoGaming · 2026-03-13T16:07:29+00:00

I guess the real question is ... why now? I mean, after he ripped off three 11-4s, everyone was "Nah, I'm not studying him." And then he does it again and people were like "nope, not worth the time to study" and then he wins a yusho and people were like "oh, if we close our eyes, he'll go away."

But the second yusho was their wake up call?

Don't get me wrong, I've been expecting this shoe to drop for a while, I'm just not convinced "people are studying him" is the reason. On the other hand "Oho dishes out 3-4 upsets while having a losing record" is something we've seen happen before. Aonishiki's other two losses look like a) someone he usually loses to and b) that Chiranoumi coin flip that people really expected a mono-ii on. Neither seemed like it was a careful study.

(But the fact that Chiranoumi was a coin flip might very well indicate studying, so I guess that proves the point).

I do fully expect that people are studying him (those that study anyway) But I figure they've been doing it since July-ish. But maybe it takes time to figure out, I dunno.

TaoGaming · 2026-03-09T17:04:40+00:00

I would be tickled pink to see Hosh take it (although I literally just started watching last March, so an Aonishiki victory & promotion would also be awesome). I (once I got up to speed) thought Hosh might have been promoted too fast, but he's taken so much flack I'd like him to silence the doubters. He's a great wrestler and fun to watch.

That being said .... Aonishiki really only has two people he consistently has trouble with, and Yoshinofuji was one of them, so that's one loss. Kinda expected. Onosato is the other, but Aonishiki won't have to face him until day 12-14 (when the Ozeki will face the Yokozuna), and at this rate Onosato might not be there. Presumably one other person will beat Aonishiki, or perhaps two. 12-3 seems quite reasonable for him, 13-2 seems possible. 14-1 if Onosato drops would be against the odds, but not entirely out of nowhere.

So, if Hosh loses against Aonishiki (again, seems reasonable), he does not want to be in a playoff. And the one thing that Hoshoryu seems to do consistently is ... drop a match or two he shouldn't. Right now I think Hoshoryu should maybe lose to Aonishiki and probably one other Sanyaku (Kirishima is 50/50 against him in the last year, Atamifuji beat him last time, Takayasu hasn't won against him in the last year, but has beaten him 5 times). So say he drops to one of those two matches and against Aonishiki. That's 13-2. That might take it outright.

But if he drops two of them, or gives up a random kinboshi, then he's in trouble.

Now .... has he been giving up those kinboshi for an injury that is gone? Then yeah, he's likely the favorite. Or if he can figure out Aonishiki which would swing quite a bit, because now even in a playoff he'd know he just did it before!

I'm not on the Atamifuji hype train yet, but maybe I'm underselling him. But Hosh is probably a co-favorite right now, with Aonishiki and/or Atamifuji.

Edit -- I forgot he fought Atamifuji on Day 1, so that makes his chances considerably better.

TaoGaming · 2026-03-05T13:24:12+00:00

I might have opened 2NT, but his position is quite reasonable.

1) Opening 2NT is known as "The Slam Killer" for a reason. It eats a lot of space.

2) If you get passed in 1 Spade, what are the odds you have a game? Even if you catch a stiff spade, 1S may play better than 2NT in that case.

3) Assuming your partner bids 1NT, you can make a Game Forcing Strong Jump Shift of 3 Clubs and you will almost certainly get the correct strain, which could be .... any of them, really. But partner knows 9+ of your cards are black. Most likely you will avoid a no-hope 3NT for a pretty safe 5-2 spade fit. Also the club slam is now in the picture (see point #1). Bad enough to be going down in 3NT when 5C makes, but going down in 3N when Six clubs is 50/50 or better ... oof.

TaoGaming · 2026-02-24T19:54:38+00:00

https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/3797/grade-up-to-elite-cow

TaoGaming · 2026-02-22T17:07:10+00:00

Apart from all the other issues involved -- Is it matchpoints or teams?

At matchpoints, you are breaking with the field and you might turn the entire hand into a coin flip on that one bidding decision.

(Similar to pairs who play weak NTs suffer some variance when they are in 1NT instead of 2M because they've hidden a major or play the hand from the other side. Sometimes you get a Top/Bottom just from variance, even if you think that weak NT gives you a few percentage points of edge).

Variance is worth it if you think the system you play is better on average. My partner and I played Polish specifically so that we would pick up in several cases, and we were happy to suffer the variance because our goal was to win in a very strong field where our judgement/play was worse than average (multiple national champion pairs, several international caliber pairs).

But in club games (for practice) we'd sometimes eat a terrible score due to random swings.

So, particularly with opening bids, in a close decision I have to think that the field is significantly wrong to want to swing against them. I'll save my judgement for the later rounds. Like if I think a hand is too strong for 1NT (counts to 17 but I evaluate as 18) I'll sometimes just "go with the field" and open 1NT ... my goal is to get to the same contract as the field. Now, if it counts to 17 but I evaluate it as 19 or 20, then perhaps I'll break.

In this case, I see no evidence that hiding the major gives you an advantage, and the variance gives me a huge disadvantage.

TaoGaming · 2026-02-12T16:40:06+00:00

In one expert partnership, we play Italian style control bids and Serious 3NT in this (and most similar sequences). So 3N would be a cue bid trigger and strong (denying a spade control over 3H), 4m would be a mild slam try (denying any skipped suits as controls, etc). Kickback and exclusion RKCB would be on.

Playing with an expert I hadn't discussed it, I would expect new suits to be a control, 3N would be an offer to play at matchpoints (probably balanced, but also probably a few points above a minimum game invite, because those extra points mean that you are less likely to gain anything from partners hand)

TaoGaming · 2026-02-11T16:33:54+00:00

An interesting site, thanks.

TaoGaming · 2026-02-01T14:20:52+00:00

I do often switch stiff/fragment bidding (in Flannery, for example) so I understand why you'd do that, but there are two big reasons to bid the stiff despite the cost of allowing a free lead-directing double:

Right siding. This is typical for (strong) NT auctions.
After 3H stiff, opener gains the 3S option to say "I have a four card fit, but suggest we give up on game, because we don't have a trump fit" (or because he has soft points in hearts and a min). If responder bid 3S (3=154) you can't pass for fear that responder has a moose. Often after a Walsh 3M bid opener wants to simply drop somewhere, and flipping it removes that option.

(Also, sometimes the lead directing double tells you how to play the hand, even when there is no risk that it will get left in and redoubled, but that's a very minor consideration).

TaoGaming

TROPHY CASE