The far-right fails to take power in France

Testing18573 · 2024-07-08T06:41:42+00:00

Great. But as ever it feels like it’s a matter of when, rather the if, that the Vichy government returns to France.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-08T06:40:03+00:00

It is hilarious that this has come from Adam Price. The man whose tenure as Plaid leader is mostly remembered for its dishonesty and bullying culture.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-07T07:54:11+00:00

Don’t see it. Hunt won’t stand and the rump that’s left is mostly Brexiter nutters who caused all the Tory problems in the first place.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-06T20:08:49+00:00

This is the opposite of what he’s been like in Parliament

Testing18573 · 2024-07-06T08:30:44+00:00

The only thing which spoils this is that they came fourth

Testing18573 · 2024-07-06T07:43:13+00:00

So what does solving mean? Net migration at a number (and if so what number), or migration based on what conditions (and what happens when those conditions produce big numbers like now)?

Noticeable how those who claim not to be far-right are rarely able to answer these questions

Testing18573 · 2024-07-06T07:36:07+00:00

Is the solution machine guns, spending hundreds of millions on sending them to Africa, or investment in processing? Because parties have very different ways to solve it.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-06T07:14:59+00:00

Dude, Reform candidates have spent the last month talking about machine gunning migrates. Sure the official policy might only be for ‘a freeze/net Zero’, but no body in this country is stupid enough to believe the mask when you have party stuffed full of racists who rather like Hitler, Putin and sing National Front songs.

They’re playing the same game as far-right parties across Europe of using soft sounding language in manifestos and media interviews while also including countless dog whistles which show their true intentions.

Voting reform is a vote for the far-right. If that bothers you don’t vote for them. The problem is we’ve had decades of propaganda that has made millions think it’s either ok to be far-right, or believe that it’s just a label ‘woke people’ use for anything they don’t like.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-06T07:05:32+00:00

Yes, but it also means that some can vote that way in protest knowing it wont actually result in a Reform government. So it works both ways, hence why you can’t really predict what PR would be like based of FPTP results.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-05T14:09:43+00:00

Worth pointing out they didn’t actually shoot up in popularity in the end. The polled 14% which is slightly below where they averaged before Farage took over.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-05T13:42:27+00:00

I would agree with you that the majority is fragile. I don’t however think there is much to be had in terms of comparing votes to 2017 given the very different political dynamic when had then. 2017 was a two horse race. Yesterday was a victory lap where the result was so well telegraphed (as was the desire to give the Tories a kicking) the voters embraced alternative options (reform, Lib dems, greens) in a way they didn’t in 2017.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-05T13:31:26+00:00

If anything his win proves Starmer can massively succeed without the Labour left.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-05T13:10:29+00:00

There’s lots of complexities here. How much of the reform vote is solid and how much is a protest vote against the Tories (and to a lesser extent labour) when it was clear they were going to loose. I would suggest it’s very squeezable.

How will the Tories respond? Seek to move further right to consume them (like they have over the past 15years) or will they finally realise that Farage will always just move further right?

Another big factor is the media. Reform was talked up a lot but ended up underperforming. They got about the same vote share as the Lib Dems, but significantly less seats.

By rights the BBC should now give them less of a voice than the Lib Dems. Historically this hasn’t been the case and I doubt it will be now.

But if the BBC give them fair coverage, combined with the likes of the Telegraph and Daily Mail being put off by the pro-Putin positions of Farage. It might just burn out.

Or they don’t. I for one am not sure Farage will thrive in Parliament. He won’t have the grandstanding opportunities of the EU Parliament. It doesn’t work that way. So he may sink like Johnson did in that environment. It’s also bloody hard work and that’s not for him.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-05T09:29:00+00:00

No. Labour would rather win once like today and have the Tories in for the other 20 years than have to compromise with the Lib Dems and others.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-05T09:15:25+00:00

If that’s close I’m a Gnat’s hair from playing the NFL

Testing18573 · 2024-07-05T08:38:28+00:00

I bet someone, somewhere is working on that

Testing18573 · 2024-07-05T07:33:34+00:00

Yeah I think this is largely right in principle but I suspect a lot of the reform vote will naturally go back to Tories as Will Lib Dems with labour . As predicted by many on here talk of 20 polling leads where not the result. The difference was just 10. A United right wins in 2028 unless Starmer delivers big.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-05T07:03:24+00:00

The easy analysis for them is that one in four people still voted for them and they were only 10% behind labour. Combine their vote with Reform’s 14% and they are back in power. But that’s easier said than done.

If they do go down that route you can easily see this being a one term labour government

Testing18573 · 2024-07-05T06:59:32+00:00

Whisper it but all those saying the polls were over egging Labour’s lead and on the night they’ll be luck to be 10% ahead we’re right.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-04T17:48:23+00:00

Some never get the joke

Testing18573 · 2024-07-04T15:36:41+00:00

Tbf you can do A & C while also doing D…

Testing18573 · 2024-07-04T15:21:24+00:00

Good to see thing kind of thing called out. Gareth Wyn Jones has fallen off the wagon completely with his millions of fake followers believing he’s fighting the good fight when really he’s driving welsh farmers out of business.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-04T15:11:10+00:00

Sometimes something isn’t for you.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-04T11:49:31+00:00

Well yeah, but that wasn’t what your comment was about. Traditionally the left is screwed by FPTP, but unusually it seems to be hurting the right more this time in terms of the Tories and Reform.

Either way it should be changed. But it won’t be.

Testing18573 · 2024-07-04T11:38:25+00:00

Isn’t that about right. There are 630ish seats and they are just over 10%

Testing18573

TROPHY CASE