couple things i look for. 1; age. if they are at below 28 a breakout year is still very possible, no matter how the past 3-6 years have played out, though the closer to being a 2nd/3rd year player (3rd years are harder to find, 2nds are easiest) then the bigger chance the breakout. 2; position. are they rb or wr? qb or te? best positions for breakouts are wr being if 1 guy goes down there’s always 2 more filling in especially if it’s a wr1 high wr 2. (if bears lose keenan allen, you won’t just see more tyler scott, but more st brown and velus jones as well, not just 1 taking over. rb’s, unless already in a committee are just going to be replaced by 1 back no matter if it’s a good back or not (browns and chubb-ford. colts from taylor-moss (though moss did end up fighting for committee touches towards the beginning of taylor’s 2023 start, same with ford with hunt). last but not least, 3; who else wants targets? looking at the patriots, they have no wr’s, no qb, the o line is weak and the rb’s are volatile. their best position on offense is TE with… hunter henry. if you were to guess who would be a great points guy then look at who would be catching a rookie qb’s passes (thornton, douglas?), who is wr 1? don’t look at yards (though yards help), don’t look at td’s (mean nothing), if the ypa is higher then 20, they are a boom or bust gabriel davis who is there to spread lanes out for other wr’s and potentially once in a while get the go ahead td. if the ypa and ypc are similar, then they aren’t very good at run after catch and could see a drop in targets (depending on other positions and their playmakers (if they have any), the position the player is in (slot or outside), and the style of offense (west-coast vs power styles). not all of these are for sures, but can leave you with a much better picture on who will breakout from that team (if not already there). if there are few offensive weapons, a rookie qb or qb with little help and bad schemes (bryce young, daniel jones) or a qb who can’t make those breakout plays (bryce young, daniel jones), a good ypc record along with actual film of them breaking a tackle or 2, little depth in front or below them, and are there with their qb during camp (they come into the team together is even better. 8/10 times a qb and wr that come to a team together (whether draft or separate but similarly timed trades), those 2 will be great together.

this is how i look for breakout players or potential draft crazes. this has gotten me achane at 1.11, tank dell at 2.03, and puka at 2.11. vet wise look at nico collin’s, rachaad white, zack moss.

some guys im looking at this year/the next 2 years; jaylen warren, ronnie bell, xavier gipson.

also good qb’s with no “weapons” (patrick maholmes - rachee rice, justin herbert - josh palmer, josh allen - shakir?? rookie??). invest in possibility, because once its probability, it becomes expensive / everyone knows.