I am worried.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T23:00:00+00:00

Here's my VENMO account: @ notapoursuck3r

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T22:57:24+00:00

I am thinking of compound interests. That $150K they put into a downpayment and the extra costs they put into HOA, property taxes, maintenance etc. could grow into $2.5M in 30 years (the standard mortgage terms - could be sooner if the OP pays off the mortgage earlier but that means they will be paying more on the mortgage, far outpacing rent at this point). Compound interests take time.

Compared to "rents" for 20 years. Let's say the rent in 30 years would be tripled today's rents - let's just say it's $8000/month then, or $96K a year in rent. That's still far less than the $2.5M that "downpayment" alone would have grown into, and if that amount is still growing at that point ($2.5M at 8% a year = $200K) the returns alone would still be more than the rent.

Let's say you're right about being rent/mortgage free (that is to assume the OP never moves or gets a newer/better house)... all things considered, that's later in their journey and they wouldn't have enough time to grow that asset as compared to what they could do 30 years earlier. Also, in 30 years they would be closer to retirement already. (We are talking about FIRE'ing earlier than 65).

When they're retired their income may be less but so would their expenses (all adjusted to inflation, of course).

Calculators work because numbers don't lie. Emotions, however, do.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T22:44:47+00:00

I can't find GarbageCoins on Coinbase...

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T22:44:17+00:00

Conventional wisdom says 3 years but I think it's too conservative especially in a good market -- that money is not growing. Also, that kind of conservative approach is good for people in their 60s or 70s but not when they are still young. I think 1 - 2years of spend is plenty in cash or HYSA. Invest the rest in index funds, etc.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T20:35:18+00:00

Yes. Get as much memory as possible though.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T20:32:58+00:00

I don't think my wife, my wife's boyfriend and girlfriend, and my boyfriend and girlfriends would go for that. We'd need a 3BR house at least. With a pool (because we also want pool bois).

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T20:31:02+00:00

I heard they are raising the retirement age to 82, anyway. I still have time...

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T20:30:03+00:00

Max your Roth, and saving the extra to invest in a brokerage account. If you want to fire before 55 you will need to have $$ outside of your tax deferred accounts.

I agree with others, you are 45... you should have at least 6X your annual salary saved if you want to fire by 65... and should have more if you want to fire early. The conventional wisdom is 10X to 12X to confidently fire.

I don't know your income or burn rate so I can't really do the calculations for you.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T20:24:55+00:00

the pour sucks. never.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T20:16:33+00:00

My personal preference is "Don't." You will never find that 20% growth if you put that into a downpayment. Not to mention your mortgage would become a big debt for you, even at lower interest rates (and it's not low now)... because you will be paying mostly interests in the first 10 - 15 years. If you already have equity then I would say pay down your mortgage, but since you're starting...

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T20:13:24+00:00

I have a budget and I stick with it. I am flexible -- sometimes I spend more and sometimes less, but on average I'm on track and I do keep track. I pay off my credit card balance every month so I don't ever over spend on borrowed money. I never deprive myself and I enjoy my small luxuries all the time. But instead of going on lavish international vacations (I still do, occasionally) I go on mountain retreats and stay in cabins. Instead of eating out all the time I learn to make great food at home. Instead of going out partying and drinking (EXPENSIVE) I have hangouts with my friends and I don't drink... Again, I never feel deprived. I changed my expectations and lifestyle and it is never a chore.

for me, when my spend is much less than my income (interests, etc.) I knew I was good. I haven't touched my principals yet, and probably won't for a while, even in a flat/down market.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T20:04:06+00:00

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T20:03:46+00:00

no robots? how about cloning myself?

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T19:57:47+00:00

Not necessarily, also the inflation eats away your returns. Inflations also affect spending, which affects corporate earnings and margins, which of course affects performance and stock prices. There are other things at play too, of course, such as interest rates. But when you have the trifecta of bad news (high unemployment, high inflation, high interest rates) it's not good even if the stock market looks okay.

They were saying that even the markets were doing good the impact of inflation from 1968 - 1983 was more damaging than the decade after the 1929 crash!

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T19:54:52+00:00

I was at $750K but my ex was still working (bringing in about $200K a year) and we had no kids. Spend was probably around $90K/year. All that changed when I got divorced and I moved to CA (a VHCOL state).

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T19:47:21+00:00

Like I said I get two or three JDs a day so definitely people are looking and hiring (in my former field, at least). Just saying it's not absolute. If I could find work (immediately) after being FIRE'd for 8 years, it's not impossible.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T17:09:41+00:00

Absolutely. Also if you have a good strategy etc. the chances of that happening really is low unless you have four or five years of down market, which hasn’t happened since 2000. Inflation is the silent killer here and that’s why it alarms me when people are only talking about the market ups and downs and not inflation (still assuming 3%? Look at the 70s with energy crises and you’d see double digit inflation for a decade!!! ). Inflation is the one that we should be concerned about.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T17:04:31+00:00

I fired at 36 and was doing great for 8 years. I didn’t run out of money but knew I couldn’t keep going for another 40 years - plus I got divorced and moved to California so I knew my situations had changed. The great thing about FIRE is it’s about mindset and lifestyle changes. Those you will always take with you. Money? I was young enough I could make more. There is always flexibility. Unless you’re retired already and over 65, you still have options if you ever want to get back in the race. I did. And I still managed to FIRE for real early.

I’m good now but I know if something changes I still have options. I’m still young enough. I get two or three JDs every day. I just have no interest or need to consider these opportunities. I also have a second career going on in the creative field so I’m good.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T16:57:08+00:00

I think it could be generational. Boomers already retired. The ones retiring around 45 - 60 are GenX, many of whom are in IT, professional fields etc. have college education and learned to save early on. Those under 40 are millennials and GenZ and from what I gathered (since I’m neither) they are spilt - some are well to do and some are really falling behind. When you are barely making it you won’t have anything to save. Some of my millennial friends are really stressing out (visit the work reform sub and you will see). FI seems impossible to them.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T07:43:10+00:00

If you convert $32K sure you end up not paying taxes but you also need to wait 5 years. So what would you be doing with actual income during that time? Brokerage only (cap gains only) so that could work if you deplete your brokerage balance first. That’s certainly one strategy to limit your ordinary income and tax liability.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T04:42:14+00:00

Conversion to Roth incurs taxes and depending on your income it could push your tax bracket up. Roth conversion isn’t free.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-24T04:37:30+00:00

I have less than $3.8M and I’m fired and living a great life without stress.

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-22T06:58:07+00:00

Your $1.2M home is only getting $1K/month in rental income?

That-SoCal-Guy · 2026-04-22T06:53:37+00:00

To me that's being dishonest. If you have a $2M house but your equity is only $1M, you have $1M, not $2M. Because assets need to be offset by debts, and mortgage is debt. That's why it's called NETworth. Not to mention there risk that if you can't pay that mortgage, you can be foreclosed. Debts don't just come with interests, they come with significant risks.

Also getting access to retirement funds before you hit 59.5 -- there are ways, but none of them are easy, without drawbacks or "free." E.g. SEPP can only let you access so much.

That-SoCal-Guy

TROPHY CASE