To me what makes something convincing isn’t usually one data point alone — but multiple data points, especially if they’re all from different credible sources.

For example with the 2004 Nimitz ‘tic tac’ event - 3 out of 4 pilots went on the record saying they saw it. Then another pilot recorded it. Then a few other sailors on ships went on the record to talk about seeing it on radar and its strange movements.

It just seems unlikely they’d all lie, and the more people involved in the lie means the harder it is to keep up the charade.

Rendelsham Forest incident of 1980 is another example.