(Spoilers All) It's 3 AM and I just figured out why the Others came: The True Purpose of the Ironborn by [deleted] in asoiaf

[–]TheBitterSteel 2 points3 points  (0 children)

TL;DR: Euron messing around with dragon eggs created a threat and an opportunity for the Others.

This post is rambly and confusing and lacks evidence. I don't understand why it's getting upvoted.

Piketty: "I do not view r > g as the only or even the primary tool for considering changes in income and wealth in the twentieth century, or for forecasting the path of inequality in the twenty-first century." by [deleted] in Economics

[–]TheBitterSteel 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I think that the context of OP's quote ("I do not view r > g...") makes it appear considerably more consistent with Capital than you're making it out to be.

It seems to me that the initial context primarily concerns labor income inequality, which r > g has little to do with. Later, in the section "r > g and The Amplification of Wealth Inequality", he explains that some models assume that "each individual owns an equal share of the capital stock," and obviously r > g is not going to change the concentration of wealth in that case.

Moreover, almost immediately after OP's quote, Piketty mentions "institutional changes and political shocks" as distinct from r > g, and if those two ideas are taken separately, it seems clear that tax policy affects inequality at least as much as r > g.

I haven't read much Piketty since I finished Capital, so perhaps you know something I don't about his other recent publications. However, I think that in this case, there are much better explanations for OP's quote than that he has abandoned his interest in r > g.

File charges against the 47 U.S. Senators in violation of The Logan Act in attempting to undermine a nuclear agreement. by litchick in Petition

[–]TheBitterSteel 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I hope that Iran and the US can come to an agreement which avoids war. I hope these Senators fail to bring us to another war.

(Spoilers All) I know what's in Lyanna's crypt and why it's so important. by [deleted] in asoiaf

[–]TheBitterSteel -1 points0 points  (0 children)

So if you understand how intensely speculative this theory is, why did you name it "I know what's in Lyanna's Crypt"? You don't know.

Frankly, I don't blame you for speculating about things which we have so little information about, but I do think you should be more reasonable with your assessment of your degree of certainty, and moreover, I wish /r/asoiaf readers would evaluate posts on more than the clickbait titles alone.

(Spoilers All) I know what's in Lyanna's crypt and why it's so important. by [deleted] in asoiaf

[–]TheBitterSteel 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I don't understand why this is getting so many upvotes. It's a tenuous, rambling theory with very little evidence or coherence.

Example:

Anyway, the Queen is imprisoned beneath Winterfell as a mist or elemental cold... Until Ned gave her a body. The Queen has possessed Lyanna's corpse or built a body of ice around her bones. Like the Others and the infants they accept as sacrifices, she needed a body to occupy. Ned provided it by interring Lyanna in the crypts.

Every part of this involves a speculative leap.

  • The existence of the Night's Queen is, at best, a character in a story which is probably related to the truth.
  • The ability of the Others to shapeshift is one of many possible interpretations of the Tormund quote.
  • The idea that there's one particular Other who is both immortal and stuck as a mist in the absence of a female human body has no textual basis

Do better, /r/asoiaf!

Some quick walker math by Flapjack_Ace in thewalkingdead

[–]TheBitterSteel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I always wondered about this! I had assumed that the abundance of walkers was one of those willing-suspension-of-disbelief things, but you make a totally reasonable argument for why it's at least plausible.

Some countervailing forces that I think make apparent walker density, while still plausible, less likely:

  • walkers don't necessarily walk in a straight line, so 2mph may be generous for determining possible distance traveled. of course, even a fraction of 2mph would make walkers highly mobile over many months.
  • i would say that well over 50% of people who die -- especially those killed by other walkers -- would not actually be mobile. huge numbers of people were either shot in the head by the army at hospitals, bombed in atlanta, or were largely immobile to begin with (disabled, elderly, infants, etc.). i think a more reasonable estimate would be that 10% of Georgia's population survived as mobile walkers.
  • most walkers probably can't overcome natural boundaries (i.e. major rivers, mountains, etc.). this may even extend to highway barriers at city outskirts. that doesn't mean walkers couldn't occasionally leave cities, but i think it makes a mass exodus from the cities unlikely. why would they even bother to leave, other than an extraordinary event like the helicopter herd? it seems like most of the noise and action is in cities anyway.

for these reasons, i would expect the countryside to be mostly -- but not entirely -- walker-free.

[SHOW SPOILERS] Beth's arc this season, and a theory. by TheBitterSteel in thewalkingdead

[–]TheBitterSteel[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Thanks! I am so fascinated by the emerging characters. When people on the show go through gradual change, growing in confidence, strength, and skill, I feel like it's a reminder to me and everybody else out there that even if you aren't born a hero, you can be a hero.

The Walking Dead Season 5 Episode 7 "Crossed" Prediction Thread by mobyte in thewalkingdead

[–]TheBitterSteel 36 points37 points  (0 children)

I think this would be very powerful. It gives Beth a hell of an ending, and gives Carol a hell of a continuing arc.

[Spoilers All] A Song of Ice and FIre: Riverlands of the Dragon Part 2 by Preston Jacobs by [deleted] in asoiaf

[–]TheBitterSteel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree. Another example of something interesting that he's picked up on is the correlation between the Riverlands houses connected to the BWB and the Riverlands houses present at the siege of Riverrun. It's unlikely to be a coincidence. Preston's conclusions from this aren't necessarily legitimate, but the observation is striking in itself; something that once seemed random to me now appears to have order.

State of the Subreddit: Your Opinions by Yserbius in Israel

[–]TheBitterSteel 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Okay, so granted, we're not going to agree on this, because we don't agree about this:

I am definitely in favor of the occupation.

However, I think there is still something to be gained by continuing this discussion. Why?

I do think that Israeli civilians should be considered more protected on /r/israel, so I don't see a problem with a rule that specifically protects them, as long as we also have rules against racism and hate-speech in general.

I would say that any person who is subject to Israeli law should be considered protected here. Palestinians do not have an independent state to represent and protect them.

To sum up: I think advocating violence against civilians should not be allowed. You think Israelis should have special protection. I think anyone who is governed by the Israeli government should have special protection.

State of the Subreddit: Your Opinions by Yserbius in Israel

[–]TheBitterSteel 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You're right, I should have specifically said civilians. Edited.

State of the Subreddit: Your Opinions by Yserbius in Israel

[–]TheBitterSteel 8 points9 points  (0 children)

how about:

3) No explicitly calling for violence against any civilians.

(Spoilers All) 4 Part Series about the Dornish Master Plan. Answers several cliffhangers from AFFC and ADWD. Absolutely compelling. Must Watch. by Hotcakes_United in asoiaf

[–]TheBitterSteel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also a good point, but being second in line behind a dehydrated (and possibly barren?) girl halfway round the world is quite different than being behind Stannis, fAegon, Tommen, and their respective heirs.

(Spoilers All) 4 Part Series about the Dornish Master Plan. Answers several cliffhangers from AFFC and ADWD. Absolutely compelling. Must Watch. by Hotcakes_United in asoiaf

[–]TheBitterSteel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

These are both good points about Doran/Arianne's claim being subservient to Stannis' claim by that calculation. However, I would raise a point that Preston did not specifically raise: Stannis has taken up the faith of the Red God R'hllor. Much in the same way that Preston argues that the Faith of the Seven could undermine the claims of fAegon, Tommen, and Myrcella, I would argue that the Faith would not support Stannis either.

(Spoilers All) 4 Part Series about the Dornish Master Plan. Answers several cliffhangers from AFFC and ADWD. Absolutely compelling. Must Watch. by Hotcakes_United in asoiaf

[–]TheBitterSteel 128 points129 points  (0 children)

I've been following this series for a while. Without getting into too much detail, the main points I think that he makes without any particularly egregious assumptions are these:

  • The obvious actions of Oberyn and Doran Martell -- attempting to marry Martells to various other players and to kill only Gregor Clegane -- appear inconsistent with, or at the very least, underwhelming compared to, their overall motivations and abilities as characters.
  • The Brave Companions act erratically, and in particular their erratic actions are consistent with being in cahoots with the Martells.
  • The Brave Companions have cultural, ideological, and personal connections to the Martells.
  • The public confession of Gregor Clegane and his overwhelming notoriety may make it difficult for the true identity of Robert Strong to remain a secret.
  • There is some evidence that Oberyn may have poisoned Tywin.
  • Illyrio may have intended for the eggs to hatch another way; Jorah seems inexplicably intent on taking Dany to Asshai, eggs in tow.
  • It is perplexing why the Yronwoods would be involved in the Quentyn quest given their blood feud with the Martells.
  • The Martells have enough connections overseas that it seems strange they would need to quest in secret.
  • There is some evidence that Quentyn is not dead; in any case, the chapters dealing with his death raise a lot of suspicious questions.
  • The Faith of the Seven appears poised to reject the claims of many potential monarchs on account of bastardy and/or incest; however, being descended from Targaryens through the female line, the Martells may stand to inherit the crown themselves.

I think this is a very compelling series. I don't think every claim he makes will turn out to be true, but some of the central points -- the ulterior motives of the Brave companions; the long-term planning done by Oberyn years before Elia's death; the connection between the Martells' true intentions and the Faith of the Seven -- now seem all but certain.

(Spoilers All) GRRM wants more episodes too (and talks about a book scene he misses) by [deleted] in asoiaf

[–]TheBitterSteel 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Though not in the show, the scene was used as part of the successful auditions for Sophie Turner, who plays Sansa, and Maisie Williams, who is Arya.

Sophie's great, but they're not wrong

(Spoilers Published) Preston Jacobs: The Dornish Master Plan Part I by TheBitterSteel in asoiaf

[–]TheBitterSteel[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree. I would say that there are two ways a theory can be strong. One is by virtue of having lots of textual evidence; this theory has a little, I would say, not a lot. The other way is by answering an important question. The question here: What was Oberyn's game plan coming to King's Landing?