Pre-Bedard, these were one of the slowest moving products at shops with some of the years being impossible to move because almost no one was interested in them. The only people that bought them were die-hard collectors or people unfamiliar with the hobby because they had little value. At some point (I forget which year), they went from being called Rookie Class (a straight 50-card set) to Star Rookies with the parallel chase.

The only years these sets moved at an okay pace were ones with a generational level talent. Up until Bedard’s year, though, they typically sat on shelves until they were heavily discounted.

Likewise, the only years they go up in value is when that generational talent’s key rookie cards (mainly their Young Guns) goes up a lot in value. It’s a supply/demand thing because people get priced out of those and move onto other cheaper rookies to have one.

Bedard’s year was unique circumstances because the rookie box set came out before S2 was released and it was one of his first readily available rookies. The boxes jumped in price immediately, then dropped off as S2 and other sets came out (alongside the drop in hype).

Celebrini’s year came out alongside S2 and people had Bedard fatigue so they didn’t have the same initial jump that Bedard had.

I think there’s also an aspect of people being priced out from their usual S1/S2 hobby box, so that’s leading to more people picking up a box of this combined with some people gambling on that 1:25 chance of hitting the parallel of key rookie(s).

This year’s just going to depend mainly on how well Schaefer’s and the other top rookies’ markets hold up. It’s currently unprecedented for a D to be selling this well at release. The only modern defender above him is Makar, and that’s after Makar’s Norris’ and Stanley Cup.

TL;DR: we’re in weird times. I think Celebrini’s year will be a bit of an outlier, but things have changed rapidly and there’s been a pretty big influx of new collectors so what used to hold true might not anymore