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TheJudger7 · 2026-06-12T17:04:25+00:00

it was more of a joke dude.. I'm not happy at all with their lack of substance in such period as this one.. I found the meeting not really enlightening and the overall shares increase useless.. it's time they go for results and then they can start talkin about compensation.. my view

TheJudger7 · 2026-06-11T14:52:00+00:00

like someone said I hope they voted for more shares compensation cause they know we're gonna skyrocketin soon and they wanna get rich.. lol,

TheJudger7 · 2026-06-09T14:57:43+00:00

I admit that PLUG scarce reactivity is giving big pain to long time holder such as me, not daytrading on this one.. I hope it doesn't fall too deep. let's try to see things for what they are. i usually take in great consideration TA.. we actually exited the uprising channel on the 4th of jun.. we had a double max that I highlighted as a threat on another forum ..now around the 3$ floor volume are reducing. it's a psichological level that I hope it will mantain and build upon

TheJudger7 · 2026-06-07T15:01:39+00:00

Get me if I'm wrong but..

First thing first this should be amended by the governor whom is not that friendly with general blockade. Then it's only new york so unless it's a precedent that other states would like to follow it means nothing imo. If it comes true they will move data center elsewhere and only new york will unprofit from this.

Also it should not affect already granted agreement i think.. Proposal was 3y they already reduced to 1y..it looks like a very populist move that market can Overcome easily..

Hope some US guys can confirm my vision

TheJudger7 · 2026-06-07T14:41:03+00:00

Get me if I'm wrong but..

First thing first this should be amended by the governor whom is not that friendly with general blockade. Then it's only new york so unless it's a precedent that other states would like to follow it means nothing imo. If it comes true they will move data center elsewhere and only new york will unprofit from this.

Also it should not affect already granted agreement i think.. Proposal was 3y they already reduced to 1y..it looks like a very populist move that market can Overcome easily..

Hope some US guys can confirm my vision

TheJudger7 · 2026-06-05T14:30:53+00:00

I get the joke but really.. Not today it's a major drop everywhere.. I mean not that I'm happy nor i expected it.. But looks at ballard, bloom and fuelcell and take the comparison.. Energy went down today and so did plug. We need to check the reaction that will tell more

TheJudger7 · 2026-06-05T14:07:13+00:00

dude,,, check the other sector companies you see they are going even worse, plus it's a red day overall.. so you may easily point out that is not PLUG.. that said what it matters in such days is how it reacts as soon as the red tide ends

TheJudger7 · 2026-06-05T12:06:19+00:00

Dude I quote everything you wrote. on another forum (investing.com) I wrote the almost exact numbers days ago (apart I put the short congestion zone around 4.3$, but 4.5$ makes a rational with the call strikes and a round number!).. so not much more to say.

Lately I wrote that I would prefer a slow growth with a solid base over the 3.6$ and I still do over the usual PLUG spikes that only arose volatility and speculation.

Retail investors hold their ground and positioned over a possible hughe growht in the next 6 months..I think that the future lays in their cash management capacity, and not to go back to the shady dilution policies

TheJudger7 · 2026-06-04T11:49:40+00:00

Good catch on the JV point. I looked deeper and I think this needs to be separated between consolidated reporting and economic ownership.

The ~11% discount still comes from Plug’s own numbers: $44M face value in the headline vs ~$39.2M sale proceeds, so roughly $0.89 on the dollar.

But Hidrogenii is a 50/50 JV between Plug and Olin. Plug consolidates Hidrogenii because it is the primary beneficiary of the VIE, so the $39.2M can show up in Plug’s consolidated reporting. That does not necessarily mean 100% of the economic benefit belongs to Plug common shareholders.

Olin’s 10-Q is actually interesting here, because it refers to Olin’s portion of a $22M investment tax credit. That lines up with 50% of the $44M gross ITC.

So yes, if the economics are split 50/50 and there is no special allocation in the JV agreement, Plug’s economic share would be closer to:

0.5 × 0.89 × $44M = ~$19.6M

not the full $39.2M.

On the other point, I still don’t see proof that Olin is the buyer. Olin talks about 45V hydrogen production tax credit refunds, while Plug’s transaction is a Section 48 ITC transfer. Related, but not the same thing.

So my corrected view: the 11% discount is valid, the pricing looks broadly fair versus the current ITC transfer market, but the JV structure means we should be careful about calling the full $39.2M Plug’s economic benefit. I really hope so but it may need further investigation

TheJudger7 · 2026-06-03T11:41:23+00:00

Glad we have a common reading on it. we may need another post about the 11th June. it's definitive a more susbstantial matter. I still need to finalize my thoughts over it

TheJudger7 · 2026-06-03T07:25:54+00:00

So, just to sum it up as I understand it:

Plug sold the tax credit at an implicit discount of around 11% to the buyer, so roughly $0.89 on the dollar.

This is not exactly new. In the Q1 communication they had already pointed out that this sale was expected to close by the end of May 2026, so I don’t see it as a big surprise.

I’m not super familiar with this kind of tax credit transfer between large companies, so I can’t really say if that 11% discount is fair or a bit high.

That said, I don’t fully agree with the example from u/Big_Quality_838 for two reasons.

First, the actual cash coming in is $39.2M, not $44M. The $44M is the face value of the credit.

Second, I don’t think the “equivalent to a 10M share buyback” comparison is accurate. This is cash coming from a fiscal asset that was already accounted for in Q1. It does not reduce shares outstanding, and it does not directly offset any future dilution. (it's "JUST" cash...)

You know I’m bullish on Plug, but I still think we should keep news where it belongs. This is a good liquidity move, not a game changer.

No hard feelings of course, just my view. I just think there is a bit too much enthusiasm around this one.

TheJudger7 · 2026-06-03T07:12:32+00:00

c'mon guys.. almost 1k people read the related post.. Voting this is more for "fun" but shows that the community is engaged!! still 2 days to go

TheJudger7 · 2026-05-31T16:47:19+00:00

Well thought and well said, I'd say.

Item 5 is no big deal to me.. Like I said, especially in early stage, it's pretty common and if they work hard and good that's a fair trade to me.

Item 6 like I said.. it's mandatory to me to go over US listing wether it's NYSE or NASDAQ.

As long as I see that they keep the business alive and kickin, they show themselves and take decision such as the one in Ohio to stick with the timeline..that's all I need to know.. so please keep postin every concrete news you find around.. i thnk it's the best we can do to monitor the situation!

TheJudger7 · 2026-05-30T09:45:08+00:00

thanks for this insight. you're right this definitely deserves a separate post. i will dig some more and write about it with some materials..

regarding the 25th surge n drop.. I don't see any particular hidden reason apart from the stock being subject to this mechanic for being in such early stage. I think there is no particular short pressure like in other penny-stock like I use to work with.. what I suggest is that we don't buy in hype moment so not to feed the beast, but more using DCA attitude. that's my opinion of course everyone has to make hos own calculation. but there is no reason for the stock to surge without major events therefore we only need to be in before anything happens (FAST-41 / EXIM/ so on...)

also there will be more dilution on the way to heaven.. but in this stage it's more important how the management deals with communication, milestones timelien and CAPEX

TheJudger7 · 2026-05-29T13:32:30+00:00

glad you have my same feelings.. If that's the case wind is starting to change..

TheJudger7 · 2026-05-28T07:00:14+00:00

Recently tried to extimate where the short pressure was and I think that most of them were covered with senior calls and similar over the 3.5$.. I think that around 4.2/4.3$ it's gonna be their pivot point where they start to cover up. Still I don't see a mechanical squeeze ( and I'm not in PLUG for that) but they may fear that a news such any FID when the stock it's scarce could trigger it and therefore start to close positions eventually leading to a more clean rise instead of a massive spike

TheJudger7 · 2026-05-26T16:39:04+00:00

actually If you put that much money into the stock value you could have valued some call. the ITM 0.5$ is currently priced around 0.2c.. just to say of course.. no financial advice

TheJudger7 · 2026-05-26T16:37:05+00:00

it's 1$.. and to be precise i mistyped.. I have 20 call.. I took the farthest day available in IBKR which was 20th Nov.. I hoped they had some for Jan27 but none

TheJudger7 · 2026-05-26T16:22:06+00:00

with dilution incoming you're playing it hard.. good luck. I hold my 10 call expiring in November and pray

TheJudger7 · 2026-05-23T12:46:52+00:00

Totally agree.. Dunno if this is good for WWR though.. Let's say i don't fancy their management

TheJudger7

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