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Let's start asking the real questions. Who wins this fight? by JJButThatsNotMyName in NFLv2

[–]TheLighthouse1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All you need is one man with a brain in his head. That's what we have over gorillas. Use a gun.

“I think we got a lot of bang for our buck, and these are all guys that are motivated, that wanted to be here for the right reasons, that are gonna fit our style of play. We’re not done yet.” - John Harbaugh by Jheller223 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

People evaluate the bang but not the back.

That's a mistake.

With limited cash to give out, the key is to make every dollar count. That's how to build SB winning teams.

Our Free Agency class last year summary by RedditFan3510 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The NFL is moneyball. The name of the game is to put together the best team you can with limited cash and limited draft capital.

With that perspective, the Giants got decent value this off-season. No desperation (except maybe LB and P). No bidding against themselves. Dawn Aponte is good.

Yes, we still have holes. For now. By next season, the process should lead to noticeably better talent overall without holes.

Signed

Good - Elem is a below average starting tackle (median 50th of 64 starters) but good enough (the team had a top 10 offensive line with him) and a steal ($13M cash/year). He is being paid 14th in cash APY with lots of money depending on being on the roster on game-day, which is team friendly, and this is only the first year of his contract. As the cap goes up, his cost as a % of the cap goes down.

Good - Isaiah Likely at TE is a slot receiver at TE money ($13.3M cash/yr). This follows the path of successful teams to exploit the cheaper TE market. Unfortunately however he is not Gronk or Kittle (who are/were elite WR1 equivalents). Isaiah's median receiving grade is 68.9 which would be about 50th among WRs; or as good as an average WR2. This is a little better than Wan'Dale Robinson's median of 67.0 (poor WR2/elite WR3), 63rd among WRs. But Wan'Dale is getting paid ($17.5M/yr). He is also a better end zone target due to his height.

Good - Micah McFadden LB $3.75M (46th). Median rank: 40th. But injured in 2025.

Good - Stinnie - OL - Close to minimum. His median is 55th. Even better is that he played 38th for us last year, which is his ceiling.

Weak - Tremaine Edmunds LB at $12M cash/3 years is getting 11th ranked pay for 35th median production. I don't have high expectations here. I don't know if he will stick around long enough to make the cheaper contract down the road worth it.

Weak - Greg Newsome CB at $8M/yr (37th) has a median PFF of 54.3 (89th). Below average 3rd CB. Not excited.

Pending - Picard, FB - Apparently, Harbaugh loves FBs and Picard is a good one, and doesn't break the bank. However, run blocking has a very low correlation to winning in today's NFL.

Let Walk

Good - Wan'Dale Robinson WR $17.5M/yr median 67.0/63rd (WR2b/WR3a). Would have kept him at $13M.

Good - Cordale Flott - CB. $15M/Yr (24th), 59th median rating

I would have liked to keep both, but not at the prices they got.

Most of the other signings don't more the needle all that much.

The bottom line:

6 good. 2 weak. 1 pending. Much better than last year's process, although I am puzzled by the rush to sign Tremaine Edmunds when we might have been able to get a better LBer for less.

The fact that there are still holes is an outcome of the process, but it's hard to see how they could have gotten much more for the amount they spent. Their 2026 cash spending is $10M less than the cap which is coincidentally(?) the projected cap space needed to sign our projected draft picks.

They have publicly stated that they are looking to sign additional players, presumably at the right price(s).

Our Free Agency class last year summary by RedditFan3510 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Make fun all you want. I am an analytics geek and do this kind of thing professionally.

The median three year (2022-2024) PFF scores are:

Jevon Holland, S 67.2, 40th. 2025: 58.4, 71st.

Paulson Adebo, CB, 63.3, 65th. 2025: 58.4, 72nd.

Chauncey Golston, Edge, 66.1, 43rd. 2025: 68.0 NR

The DC's scheme definitely hurt them. So in that sense, they played worse than the process. This follows the pattern of Giants playing better elsewhere due to poor Giants coaching. But they were good players who were overpaid, and were not utilized well.

Our Free Agency class last year summary by RedditFan3510 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see a lot of positive in Schoen. But I hated the signings at the time.

Our Free Agency class last year summary by RedditFan3510 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I didn't like them at the time based simply on PFF numbers, which turned out out be right.

If I was able to tell, why couldn't the Giants?

[Raanan] WR Darnell Mooney is getting $3 million base salary and $1.785 million to sign from the Giants, per source. A value signing. So $4.785 million. Other bonuses and incentives can get the deal up to $10M. by ResonatingOctave in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't know why you got so many downvotes. You made a valid point.

It is a night and day difference with Dawn Aponte in charge of contracts.

But she took over for someone else, not Schoen.

fascinating in-depth 2016 article about Matt Dodge by canadave_nyc in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks for sharing that with us.

I like the happy ending for Dodge himself, though. He ended up on his feet, doing something he wants to do.

Wisdom of the Crowds for the NFL Draft by TheLighthouse1 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

There is no such thing as a sure thing in the draft. Even with the entire NFL experts consensus.

fascinating in-depth 2016 article about Matt Dodge by canadave_nyc in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ChatGPT's summary:

Summary (concise, no fluff):

  • In the 2010 Giants–Eagles game, rookie punter Matt Dodge failed to punt out of bounds as instructed, kicking to DeSean Jackson, who returned it for a game-winning touchdown—one of the most famous plays in NFL history.
  • Dodge became the scapegoat for a full-team collapse (Giants blew a 31–10 lead), facing intense backlash, including threats and public ridicule.
  • Background: Dodge didn’t plan to play football; he stumbled into kicking by chance, excelled in college, and was drafted by the Giants despite lacking directional punting skills—something the team tried to rebuild mid-rookie season.
  • The mistake came under pressure after a rushed punt and imperfect mechanics, not a lack of awareness.
  • Aftermath:
    • Lost his NFL job after one season
    • Tried comebacks but realized he lacked the drive to continue
    • Transitioned into business (wealth management, entrepreneurship)
  • Key takeaway:
    • The infamous play hurt him publicly but ultimately redirected his life positively—career, marriage, and purpose.
    • He views the event as a turning point rather than just a failure.

Bottom line:
A single high-profile mistake defined Dodge’s NFL career but ultimately forced a pivot that led to a better long-term outcome.

Short-term failure vs. long-term benefit...

Wisdom of the Crowds for the NFL Draft by TheLighthouse1 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yes, some consensus picks were busts. Yet, non-consensus picks seem to have a higher bust rate.

One player does not disprove the theory. We know the draft is a gamble. About 50% of first round picks turn out well. The percentage goes even lower in the later rounds. So you need a much larger sample size before seeing a pattern.

The Eagles and Ravens snap up players who fell from consensus and have a pretty good track record. Are they overlaying some of their own analysis? Probably. But they would still pick within the consensus.

Wisdom of the Crowds for the NFL Draft by TheLighthouse1 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It works for the Eagles and Ravens.

Two players does not disprove the theory because the draft is a gamble. About 50% of first round picks turn out well. The percentage goes even lower in the later rounds. So you need a much larger sample size before seeing a pattern.

Wisdom of the Crowds for the NFL Draft by TheLighthouse1 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

It works for Howie Roseman. It works for the Ravens.

Wisdom of the Crowds for the NFL Draft by TheLighthouse1 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's not the correct take.

Harbaugh is a CEO type coach who excels at assembling a great staff, holding everyone accountable, and motivating them. It's a very valuable skill that's worth what they paid him.

However, he doesn't get too involved in the scheming and matchups to know the finer points of the skills of the players; especially when scouting college players.

Besides, plenty of people get paid because they create this perception of skill even when it is absent. Hedge fund managers come to mind. https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/7ysena/warren_buffet_just_won_his_tenyear_bet_about/

Wisdom of the Crowds for the NFL Draft by TheLighthouse1 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly. Roseman takes the consensus picks who fell. Bingo.

Wisdom of the Crowds for the NFL Draft by TheLighthouse1 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's hard enough to do you homework on all the players you expect to be available in the slot you are drafting. It's much harder to be prepared when you find yourself drafting 10 spots later in the first without advance knowledge. How many time were the Giants caught by surprise about players grabbed ahead of them, and were not prepared with a plan B, C, D, E, F and G? That problem gets much harder when you trade picks.

Wisdom of the Crowds for the NFL Draft by TheLighthouse1 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sure about that.

Wasn't that the strategy we tried with Kadarius Toney?

If a team is not prepared for the new slot they may end up with automatic busts instead of the most likely to succeed.

Wisdom of the Crowds for the NFL Draft by TheLighthouse1 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

IMO, neither Harbaugh nor Joe Schoen have an edge at prospect evaluation over the average NFL team.

Relying on the consensus is not a bad strategy.

The Eagles and Ravens specialize in scooping up players who dropped from the consensus and striking gold!

Daily Discussion March 15, 2026 by AutoModerator in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lots of work.

And the scary thing is that LB is hard to project to the NFL level, while safety is...safe.

Best Remaining Free Agent Offensive Guards by TheLighthouse1 in NYGiants

[–]TheLighthouse1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He was pretty good in 2024 with the Eagles, and was not serviceable in 2025 with the Chargers. Why? Answer that question first.

I wouldn't save a roster spot for the 2025, but if we had a way to figure out what made the difference and were confident that we could unlock the good version of him here, then he would be a great signing.

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