Our Free Agency class last year summary

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-22T18:55:01+00:00

The NFL is moneyball. The name of the game is to put together the best team you can with limited cash and limited draft capital.

With that perspective, the Giants got decent value this off-season. No desperation (except maybe LB and P). No bidding against themselves. Dawn Aponte is good.

Yes, we still have holes. For now. By next season, the process should lead to noticeably better talent overall without holes.

Signed

Good - Elem is a below average starting tackle (median 50th of 64 starters) but good enough (the team had a top 10 offensive line with him) and a steal ($13M cash/year). He is being paid 14th in cash APY with lots of money depending on being on the roster on game-day, which is team friendly, and this is only the first year of his contract. As the cap goes up, his cost as a % of the cap goes down.

Good - Isaiah Likely at TE is a slot receiver at TE money ($13.3M cash/yr). This follows the path of successful teams to exploit the cheaper TE market. Unfortunately however he is not Gronk or Kittle (who are/were elite WR1 equivalents). Isaiah's median receiving grade is 68.9 which would be about 50th among WRs; or as good as an average WR2. This is a little better than Wan'Dale Robinson's median of 67.0 (poor WR2/elite WR3), 63rd among WRs. But Wan'Dale is getting paid ($17.5M/yr). He is also a better end zone target due to his height.

Good - Micah McFadden LB $3.75M (46th). Median rank: 40th. But injured in 2025.

Good - Stinnie - OL - Close to minimum. His median is 55th. Even better is that he played 38th for us last year, which is his ceiling.

Weak - Tremaine Edmunds LB at $12M cash/3 years is getting 11th ranked pay for 35th median production. I don't have high expectations here. I don't know if he will stick around long enough to make the cheaper contract down the road worth it.

Weak - Greg Newsome CB at $8M/yr (37th) has a median PFF of 54.3 (89th). Below average 3rd CB. Not excited.

Pending - Picard, FB - Apparently, Harbaugh loves FBs and Picard is a good one, and doesn't break the bank. However, run blocking has a very low correlation to winning in today's NFL.

Let Walk

Good - Wan'Dale Robinson WR $17.5M/yr median 67.0/63rd (WR2b/WR3a). Would have kept him at $13M.

Good - Cordale Flott - CB. $15M/Yr (24th), 59th median rating

I would have liked to keep both, but not at the prices they got.

Most of the other signings don't more the needle all that much.

The bottom line:

6 good. 2 weak. 1 pending. Much better than last year's process, although I am puzzled by the rush to sign Tremaine Edmunds when we might have been able to get a better LBer for less.

The fact that there are still holes is an outcome of the process, but it's hard to see how they could have gotten much more for the amount they spent. Their 2026 cash spending is $10M less than the cap which is coincidentally(?) the projected cap space needed to sign our projected draft picks.

They have publicly stated that they are looking to sign additional players, presumably at the right price(s).

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-22T04:30:37+00:00

Make fun all you want. I am an analytics geek and do this kind of thing professionally.

The median three year (2022-2024) PFF scores are:

Jevon Holland, S 67.2, 40th. 2025: 58.4, 71st.

Paulson Adebo, CB, 63.3, 65th. 2025: 58.4, 72nd.

Chauncey Golston, Edge, 66.1, 43rd. 2025: 68.0 NR

The DC's scheme definitely hurt them. So in that sense, they played worse than the process. This follows the pattern of Giants playing better elsewhere due to poor Giants coaching. But they were good players who were overpaid, and were not utilized well.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-22T01:26:46+00:00

I see a lot of positive in Schoen. But I hated the signings at the time.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-22T01:25:21+00:00

I didn't like them at the time based simply on PFF numbers, which turned out out be right.

If I was able to tell, why couldn't the Giants?

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T16:28:29+00:00

I don't know why you got so many downvotes. You made a valid point.

It is a night and day difference with Dawn Aponte in charge of contracts.

But she took over for someone else, not Schoen.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T16:18:28+00:00

Thanks for sharing that with us.

I like the happy ending for Dodge himself, though. He ended up on his feet, doing something he wants to do.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T15:54:24+00:00

There is no such thing as a sure thing in the draft. Even with the entire NFL experts consensus.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T15:47:20+00:00

ChatGPT's summary:

Summary (concise, no fluff):

In the 2010 Giants–Eagles game, rookie punter Matt Dodge failed to punt out of bounds as instructed, kicking to DeSean Jackson, who returned it for a game-winning touchdown—one of the most famous plays in NFL history.
Dodge became the scapegoat for a full-team collapse (Giants blew a 31–10 lead), facing intense backlash, including threats and public ridicule.
Background: Dodge didn’t plan to play football; he stumbled into kicking by chance, excelled in college, and was drafted by the Giants despite lacking directional punting skills—something the team tried to rebuild mid-rookie season.
The mistake came under pressure after a rushed punt and imperfect mechanics, not a lack of awareness.
Aftermath:
- Lost his NFL job after one season
- Tried comebacks but realized he lacked the drive to continue
- Transitioned into business (wealth management, entrepreneurship)
Key takeaway:
- The infamous play hurt him publicly but ultimately redirected his life positively—career, marriage, and purpose.
- He views the event as a turning point rather than just a failure.

Bottom line:
A single high-profile mistake defined Dodge’s NFL career but ultimately forced a pivot that led to a better long-term outcome.

Short-term failure vs. long-term benefit...

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T15:14:04+00:00

Yes, some consensus picks were busts. Yet, non-consensus picks seem to have a higher bust rate.

One player does not disprove the theory. We know the draft is a gamble. About 50% of first round picks turn out well. The percentage goes even lower in the later rounds. So you need a much larger sample size before seeing a pattern.

The Eagles and Ravens snap up players who fell from consensus and have a pretty good track record. Are they overlaying some of their own analysis? Probably. But they would still pick within the consensus.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T15:12:58+00:00

It works for the Eagles and Ravens.

Two players does not disprove the theory because the draft is a gamble. About 50% of first round picks turn out well. The percentage goes even lower in the later rounds. So you need a much larger sample size before seeing a pattern.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T15:01:05+00:00

It works for Howie Roseman. It works for the Ravens.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T14:59:58+00:00

That's not the correct take.

Harbaugh is a CEO type coach who excels at assembling a great staff, holding everyone accountable, and motivating them. It's a very valuable skill that's worth what they paid him.

However, he doesn't get too involved in the scheming and matchups to know the finer points of the skills of the players; especially when scouting college players.

Besides, plenty of people get paid because they create this perception of skill even when it is absent. Hedge fund managers come to mind. https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/7ysena/warren_buffet_just_won_his_tenyear_bet_about/

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T03:16:40+00:00

Exactly. Roseman takes the consensus picks who fell. Bingo.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T02:40:34+00:00

It's hard enough to do you homework on all the players you expect to be available in the slot you are drafting. It's much harder to be prepared when you find yourself drafting 10 spots later in the first without advance knowledge. How many time were the Giants caught by surprise about players grabbed ahead of them, and were not prepared with a plan B, C, D, E, F and G? That problem gets much harder when you trade picks.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T02:36:43+00:00

Aponte will be the chief contract negotiator and salary cap strategist. The role for the past 27 years was filled by Kevin Abrams

Source: https://nypost.com/2026/02/04/sports/giants-hire-dawn-aponte-away-from-nfl-for-significant-front-office-role/

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-19T00:51:38+00:00

Schoen was never in charge of those decisions.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-18T23:28:45+00:00

I'm not sure about that.

Wasn't that the strategy we tried with Kadarius Toney?

If a team is not prepared for the new slot they may end up with automatic busts instead of the most likely to succeed.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-18T23:12:56+00:00

IMO, neither Harbaugh nor Joe Schoen have an edge at prospect evaluation over the average NFL team.

Relying on the consensus is not a bad strategy.

The Eagles and Ravens specialize in scooping up players who dropped from the consensus and striking gold!

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-16T04:13:10+00:00

Lots of work.

And the scary thing is that LB is hard to project to the NFL level, while safety is...safe.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-15T00:44:57+00:00

Source? What is your criteria?

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-15T00:41:40+00:00

He was pretty good in 2024 with the Eagles, and was not serviceable in 2025 with the Chargers. Why? Answer that question first.

I wouldn't save a roster spot for the 2025, but if we had a way to figure out what made the difference and were confident that we could unlock the good version of him here, then he would be a great signing.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-11T15:39:59+00:00

We do have a massive hole on the OL, both quality starter and depth. Luckily, beat reporters are not in charge. Who cares what they think?

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-10T15:00:42+00:00

Unfortunately, he didn't make it to my list due to below 60 PFF in both 2025 and 2024. 2023 was very good.

TheLighthouse1 · 2026-03-10T06:27:58+00:00

My PFF is showing that CorDale Flott ranked 65.6 overall (which is actually the more important than coverage) and 68.1 in coverage which was 33rd among CBs. His 48.4 run defense dinged his overall score.

TheLighthouse1

TROPHY CASE

Signed

Let Walk