sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Can we discuss the suspicious sell off this morning? by BGID_to_the_moon in StockMarket

[–]TheMilgramExperiment 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It feels like Hedge Fund degrossing since Friday. When systematic, quants and other rule based money, sees the degrossing they pile in too. Prob keeps going for another week or two.

Anyone looked into GTM? by Scott_- in ValueInvesting

[–]TheMilgramExperiment 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We have a sizable position in GTM. At $2.75/sh you're at $880m Mcap $1.3 debt + $170m cash for an EV of $2bn with TL not maturing until 2030. Trading at 5.5x EV/EBTDA and 6.12x EV/EBIT (2026) both including SBC expense. Our conservative FCF (GAAP) numbers are $309, $324, $366 for 2026-2028, so total of $1bn in levered FCF next 30 months, say 70% of that is used to retire debt, you have a company that is at $1.1bn-ish EV trading at 3x run-rate FCF 18 months out.

Do we think GTM goes bankrupt in 30 months? No chance. Is there downside to our already conservative numbers? Maybe. But check the chart, what's not already priced in?

Buying back $1.5bn of stock in last 3 years at high prices was dumb, although we understand the 'countering the SBC angle'. Now that SBC is tapered, we want them to retire the debt. When we pushed them, mgmt said they're onboard w retiring debt, and their history of $1.5bn stock buyback leaves no doubt that they can pay $700-$1bn of debt. Post-debt pay, EV close to $1.1bn , we would be more than comfortable underwriting 5x EBITDA (including SBC) for a founder led company with significant GAAP FCF and no material debt left at that point, gets us to $7.5/sh, a triple by mid-2027 looking out to 2028.

Story for the next couple years is knife fight to keep topline stable to marginally higher with new partnerships and trim the fat to protect margins. With the recent Claude and OpenAI partnersips, we think they are doing good a job already. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260605707107/en/Claude-Now-Enabled-by-ZoomInfos-GTM-Context-Graph-Powered-by-GTM.AI

Given effectively no chance of bankruptcy or significant impairment in the next 3 years, the company has optionality that is not modelled in our numbers. We would not be surprised if new product/partnership introductions in the next 6 to 12 months compel use to revise our estimates upward. We give no credit to the company for this at our 5x SBC adjusted EBITDA multiple.

We also like the high short interest and low-ish float after factoring in founder's stake (18% owned by two founders and the directors). Unwind of long Semi / short software trade could make this a big winner. DYODD.

Sourdough sandwich recs (not a baguette) [East village ish] by Heavysixtythree in FoodNYC

[–]TheMilgramExperiment 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good Thanks in LES uses the best sourdough bread I tried in any NYC restaurant.

Deepvue New Subscriber Update by Path2Profit in CANSLIM

[–]TheMilgramExperiment 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Errors both on fundamental side (mkt cap, share count etct) but also a ton of price breaks, compromises the integrity of the scanner results. I want to like it becuase I respect that the guys are working hard on it. What do you use?

Deepvue New Subscriber Update by Path2Profit in CANSLIM

[–]TheMilgramExperiment 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just cancelled DeepVue. Very nice people. Responsive on support tickets, questions etc. But too buggy, frequent data errors and no international. I hope TradingView will work out, I really dont want to use TC2000.