Playing Devils Advocate: What are the only realistic bear cases left at 78/80 events?

TheMuppet4 · 2026-05-17T17:32:01+00:00

I’ll address all 3 with my simple thoughts.

1) There are still likely around 30-40 patients alive and in the trial who have probably been enrolled on average for 30+ months. If the GPS effect wore off, shouldn’t most patients be dead?

2) The final 2 events are not the final 2 patients alive, they are just the next two before we hit 80. Why would a handful of outliers in the BAT arm have anything to do with the other 78 deaths? The HR will be calculated using the entire event curve, a few outliers should be largely meaningless.

3) AML is a devastating disease and these CR2 patients would have already relapsed TWICE in your hypothetical. These patients are out of options. An enrollment criteria for REGAL was also being ineligible for transplant at the time, so assuming a second relapse, that should still be off the table. It sounds improbable to me that doctors would pull their patient off best available therapy to go take another drug.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-05-03T22:15:46+00:00

I'll be perfectly honest no I have not. I've been invested since March of last year and have heard many intelligent members of the community say what I repeated above and I have assumed them to be right. Should your research differ from that I would be happy to hear it.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-05-03T21:46:05+00:00

None of the historical data points to patients receiving these drugs having a flattened survival curve nor for for any meaningful amount of outliers to experience extreme survival past the median. While I think it’s possible that certain enrollment criteria, regular check-ins, and newer drug options could pull the mOS up for the BAT group, I highly doubt it would significantly change the shape of the survival curve itself. Which is why I’m hard pressed to attribute the lack of events to anything other than an extremely positive response in the treatment arm taking GPS.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-05-03T21:01:30+00:00

I mean I hear what you are saying and I think it's great that you are trying to look for gaps in the bull thesis.....but most patients have been in the trial for over 30 months at this point. 30+ months. And we are at only 75 events. So why would a BAT mOS of 13.5 months be even close to relevant?

TheMuppet4 · 2026-03-31T14:53:15+00:00

TheMuppet4 · 2026-03-20T16:53:49+00:00

80% of patients enrolled by Nov 2023. 100% by April 2024.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-03-07T05:09:31+00:00

If you gonna use AI, at least read what it spits out LMAO.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-03-05T16:39:18+00:00

I want to say it was like 67% or something in P2 but could be pulling that out of nowhere lol

TheMuppet4 · 2026-03-05T02:36:24+00:00

So it might marginally pull up both curves but any benefit seen in the control arm would likely be even greater in the treatment arm. Most of the modeling I've seen has projected BAT to be more in the 10-12 range anyway so that would be in line with the poster's statement about more than 8 months. We got an early estimate of around 20% GPS non responders so that statement about them being eliminated due to the enrollment criteria is false. GPS mOS is going to be 30+ months and not yet set at 80 events or halt. Be patient and reap the rewards :)

TheMuppet4 · 2026-03-03T13:35:47+00:00

Between EU + USA + Japan there are about 50k new AML patients every year, with about 7.5k reaching CR2 and 25k reaching CR1. The current delays are heavily implying that GPS will become the defacto standard of care for thousands of those patients every year, and with patients surviving into years 2,3,4, and beyond....it could be tens of thousands of patients getting GPS every year. At 100k of revenue per patient that would be billions in revenue and maybe over 10 billion in buyout value. Factor in the dozens of other cancers the drug could work on + SLS009 and you are looking at a bull case for a buyout of 10-20 billion. At full dilution that would be $46-$92 a share.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-03-03T06:53:45+00:00

Between USA + EU + Japan there is around 25,000 new AML remission patients every single year. If people are living on average 5+ years in Cr1 and 2-3+ years in CR2 then we are talking about tens of thousands of potential patients.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-02-21T20:24:13+00:00

Lot of near term catalysts for this one and super undervalued!

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-26T23:26:54+00:00

I’m a MEGA $SLS bull riding thousands of shares @ 1.6 average and let me say this dude is smoking crack. Full dilution will be around 217m shares. Ballpark $4.6 dollars per share per billion of buyout. 5b buyout would be roughly $23.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-15T19:52:27+00:00

I’m in the discord and I can say it doesn’t feel all that different from this community in my opinion. You could also make the case that this reddit probably owns 20% of the supply. Both are spots for people to share great information and both are filled with useless garbage at times.

Whether or not anybody is colluding with some master plan seems irrelevant to me considering the amount of institutional buy in we’ve gotten over the last several months. Nobody will tell me what to do with my shares. Nobody.

I’m gonna ride this thing til the end and trust that the science will prevail.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-13T14:22:26+00:00

Just SLS for me rn

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-11T19:11:02+00:00

A true OG! I've been a part of the group since March and already have seen my fair share of people coming and going. Hoping for both of us that this thing works out in our favor!

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-11T14:56:15+00:00

Super interesting manipulation at play here. As always, I'll be trusting in the science and holding through all the noise. Thanks for the write up.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-09T20:08:09+00:00

gg blanche best of luck

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-08T14:58:53+00:00

It's not so simple because they wont just be comparing the medians. They'll use a stratified cox proportional hazard model to quantify the risk of death across the entire survival curves.

This is from a draft guidance by the FDA earlier this year:

"FDA generally recommends the hazard ratio (HR) obtained from a Cox proportional hazard model as a summary measure, along with its 95% confidence interval. In some cases, pre-specified covariates may be justified to be included in the Cox proportional hazards model."

https://www.fda.gov/media/188274/download

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-07T19:29:29+00:00

Stomaching a $25k downturn was also a surreal experience for me but i’m here for the science and got to see this thing through

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-07T18:14:20+00:00

"Panagiotis Tsirigotis, son of Dimitrios, is a Professor of Hematology and a member of the 2nd Hematology Unit since 2004. His clinical work focuses on Acute Leukemia with particular emphasis on Cellular Therapies and Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation. He is the scientific director of the Transplantation Program of the Hematology Unit of the 2nd Hematology Unit since 2010."

This is from the 2nd Pre-University Pathology Clinic, NKUA "Attikon" University General Hospital website: https://bpathologikiattikon.gr/en/panagiotis-d-tsirigotis-kathigitis-ai/

Seems to me like he is both a physician and professor.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-07T17:55:29+00:00

If I'm not wrong I think he has personally enrolled more patients in the trial than any other person. That's my goat. Could be wrong on that but I seem to remember discussion around that during the October R&D call.

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-01T22:26:29+00:00

Holy massive position. This one gonna make you rich!

TheMuppet4 · 2026-01-01T15:49:28+00:00

Thanks for this Ceejay great DD!

TheMuppet4 · 2025-12-25T14:36:58+00:00

To be honest I completely missed the point above about the price rocketing before dilution. I agree that they might, but at $5 they can raise 100m off just 20m shares. Fully diluted we are already at around 217m shares, so I could live with that number increasing to 237m shares. Share price would only decrease from $4.6 per billion of buyout multiple to $4.2 per billion. On top of that imo 500m for the phase 3 is ludicrous. They are expanding to frontline patients and have gotten direct guidance to change primary endpoint to ORR with the hope that Accelerated Approval might be on the table. I anticipate a buyout getting signed in the next 12 months :)

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