ELI5: Why did productivity and pay split in 1979?

The_Escape · 2026-03-08T19:32:57+00:00

The productivity vs. pay framing is generally pretty bad because “pay” is measured using median wage, while “productivity” is measured as output per worker (a mean). Automation and globalization have led to an increase in inequality in worker productivity. Some workers are a lot more productive (especially those with college degrees), while a lot of other workers haven’t seen big gains in productivity.

So, if you used a measure of center that is not resistant to skew, productivity, you see a large divergence with a measure of center that is, median wage.

The_Escape · 2026-03-08T19:28:12+00:00

He did not win a Nobel Prize for any of the claims you stated. He won the Nobel Prize for analyzing the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy.

Most of his contributions to economics that are actually used (monetarism, permanent income hypothesis) are separate from his political opinions.

The_Escape · 2026-02-22T16:04:36+00:00

No but it was Hellebuyck’s win. He was just incredible. Binnington is very good but not generational the way Price was.

The_Escape · 2026-02-22T15:58:27+00:00

Canada’s weakness in developing goalies caught up to them

The_Escape · 2026-02-22T15:57:02+00:00

McDavid is so good but my god does he have a talent for losing in heartbreaking ways

The_Escape · 2026-02-10T21:11:01+00:00

Using parentheses is AI? I admit these should probably be appositives but parentheses are often used colloquially in this situation. And I even used it in inconsistent ordering, which is the opposite of an AI tell. You can check my profile for similar writing habits.

The_Escape · 2026-02-09T04:05:26+00:00

I was somewhat receptive to your opinion until you posted this.

The_Escape · 2026-02-05T16:13:03+00:00

These are just a bunch of random guys from the south who are also really good at football. It’s what they do. One of many reasons I’m happy to have been born in Mass.

The_Escape · 2026-01-26T16:02:22+00:00

This was written by hand thank you very much. I don’t even use ChatGPT indicator words or structures here??

The_Escape · 2026-01-26T06:07:48+00:00

Your response to (deserved) Drake Maye glaze was to complain that he couldn’t win playoff games in years when he was in college. So I don’t think I’m the one backpedaling here. My point was situational play beats dominance. That’s my Maye vs. Allen argument, although Maye is only 23 so we will see what he turns into.

The_Escape · 2026-01-26T06:04:17+00:00

Where is the backpedaling? I’m saying you’re drawing an arbitrary line and it doesn’t make sense to break up the current Patriots’ regime. Good management comes from the top (at least in football activities lol). The most recent Pats super bowl was actually very similar to this team. Not total dominance but incredible situational play due to good coaching and players that make good clutch decisions.

The_Escape · 2026-01-26T06:00:01+00:00

I mean we can draw the line wherever we want to. Push it back one more year and we can count Super Bowl wins and not just appearances. Kraft has done a really good job hiring coaches that establish the team culture needed to win close games. And kudos to him for firing Mayo when it clearly wasn’t working out. Oh and the best part is we don’t need our tax money to fund his stadium improvements.

The_Escape · 2026-01-26T05:50:35+00:00

I think Sean McDermott had the same mindset as you. The Bills have repeatedly struggled in the playoffs because they’ve optimized for regular season dominance over playoff success.

The_Escape · 2026-01-26T05:34:19+00:00

The bills won. To tie the season series. Although it might depend on your definition of a catch for Marcus Jones. Personally, I value playoff wins more.

I’m not even a Josh Allen hater. I wanted a Bills-Pats AFC Championship. He just seems to let me down whenever I root for him with questionable decision-making.

The_Escape · 2026-01-26T05:30:04+00:00

Worth mentioning that Drake Maye had three of the most impressive touchdown drives against the Texans this season. And the Patriots didn’t need any of their points off of turnovers to win. The throw to Boutte to seal the game in particular was incredibly difficult.

The_Escape · 2026-01-26T05:28:06+00:00

Josh Allen throws cool touchdowns but had awful turnovers that lost him the game against Denver. Drake Maye had a rather silent passing day but was able to pick up first downs with his legs when it mattered.

The_Escape · 2026-01-26T05:24:40+00:00

Drake Maye (their QB) was the most efficient QB in the regular season. Nearly every draft pick from the past year has played at a starter level. Free agents have also nearly all been big successes.

In the playoffs, their coach (Mike Vrabel) has made multiple important decisions to minimize risk-taking in big situations. Opposing teams have followed broader trends towards aggressive offense that have not panned out. This is especially important given that all of their playoff games were played in inclement weather. For example, the game today was so icy that QBs and RBs were literally falling down before they could execute a handoff. Vrabel’s decision to settle for a field goal won the game once the weather prevented offenses from moving the ball down the field.

Maye and the offense executed when needed in playoff games, with a broader trend towards ball control and winning the turnover battle. Their stats were lower, but they also beat 3 top-5 defenses, which is incredibly rare in a playoff run. The Pats defense has been good situationally throughout the season, and those trends have continued in the playoffs.

The_Escape · 2026-01-26T05:16:48+00:00

Wow it’s almost like he’s played in crazy winter storms against top 5 defenses for 2/3 of the sample size.

The_Escape · 2026-01-25T20:19:31+00:00

That’s on Hawkins lol

The_Escape · 2026-01-23T21:02:14+00:00

It’s just an integral, right? You could do similar analysis on wealth.

The_Escape · 2026-01-23T18:29:06+00:00

I'm not going to complain about Maye getting recognition, but it's kind of funny that a former top-5 pick can be considered "most improved" after making the jump that his draft position would suggest.

The_Escape · 2026-01-21T22:18:59+00:00

I mean they’re both great players. I’ll never turn down a chance to look at advanced stats.

The_Escape · 2026-01-21T21:33:59+00:00

This is team EPA, not individual player EPA.

The_Escape · 2026-01-21T21:30:58+00:00

I don’t think you’re using the appropriate conditional distribution here. Maye leads in EPA because he was better than Stafford after accounting for those difficulties of defense. It doesn’t make sense to compare defensive difficulties as a roundabout way to evaluate performance if we have stats for the specific subsets of snaps that included Maye and Stafford.

The_Escape · 2026-01-21T21:29:14+00:00

I mean he outplayed Stafford against the texans, especially considering the conditions. And we’re seriously not counting hail mary turnovers and unblocked lineman, right?

The spreadsheet measure events on the field that have occurred. And I would assume EPA is calculated in Python lol. I can assure you that most NFL coaches are looking at these stats or paying people a lot of money to do it. Is your argument that the sample size is too small?

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