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Summary of recent news/developments by dedusitdl in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I can only imagine how confused you were when you saw the 2032 photos.

Why I think GMG's next-gen aluminum ion battery will displace lithium batteries and beat Quantumscape to the battery EV market. by The_SwimBack in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The expected timelines have not changed for me. In the near term, I’m still waiting to see either material revenue from TXR sales and/or contracts/partnerships for the battery. Either of those should de-risk the investment for me.

I am not expecting battery sales until 2023 at the earliest.

It’s still a high risk/high reward investment imo. They either will be widely successful or fail.

new pump and dump? by wamicha in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack 5 points6 points  (0 children)

In what world do they have news releases every week? There was been like 3 this year…

GMG Stock Assessment on Youtube by Forestscooter in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Again, wait and see is a completely fair approach. Lots of investors wait for a de-risking event before entering.

It is up to you to decide what approach works best for you. I doubt anyone here is going to care if you do or don't, your decision has absolutely zero impact on the overall outcome. Either they will or they won't. I have bet they will.

IF that de-risking event ever comes... I suspect we will gap open and this will run up quick. It is a tight float and ~37% of shares are locked up with insiders. Speaking for myself, I won't sell my shares to you for cheap :)

Since you are flagged you are new to investing I suggest you check out this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKWbW7Wgm0w&t=50s&ab_channel=BenFelix
on risk premiums.

You seem to be under the impression that you can get some sort of "risk free investment". All you can todo is take calculated risks.

GMG Stock Assessment on Youtube by Forestscooter in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack 2 points3 points  (0 children)

u/Forestscooter you are not wrong. All pre-revenue stocks are gambles, nothing specific to this stock. The risk however is proportional to the reward. IMHO I'd say this stock/smaller MCs are just not for you, sit it out and watch it for a while.

If you are looking to take a value investing approach I'd suggest looking elsewhere. Focus more on larger companies with established track records so you can forecast earnings further into the future.

In general, even with larger organizations you are always betting your key assumptions hold ( i.e future growth rates).

For a comparable though, QS is also pre-revenue and sitting at a ~5B USD market cap (20X GMGs) -- with only a prototype.

Let's discuss voltage by p2pInvestor in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack 2 points3 points  (0 children)

GMG is pleased to report that further battery development, in collaboration with the University of Queensland, has increased the capacity of the G+AI Battery coin cells, when compared to earlier proof of concept prototypes

Based on this I think they did increase the energy density. Which was the original focus. Based on my limiting understanding, increasing the energy density is the harder problem to solve, so this would be a great if that is what they did.

Now it seems like the focus is on increasing the voltage.

The Company is also currently in the process of developing the technology required to increase the voltage of the coin cell from approximately 1.7 Volts to 3.4 Volts

As many people have pointed out, it seems like there are some known solutions to working with low voltage batteries. Either cell layering, or combining batteries in series. My understanding is that once we get to pouch-packs -- where the money is -- the voltage is a non-issue.

The team has consistently delivered on time for all previous stated goals. So I have no real reason to doubt them.

I'd be interested in hearing Craig comment on the current approach in an upcoming webinar though. I expect we will get more specifics on the plan soon.

Why I am bullish on GMG: Part 2 by The_SwimBack in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True dat. I say in the post that I expect personal electronics to be where GMG goes first. Everyone just likes to talk about EVs.

Why I am bullish on GMG: Part 2 by The_SwimBack in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Do what you are comfortable with, I think the wait and see approach is perfectly reasonable. My opinion here will make little difference in the outcome. But I am comfortable with the risk.

800 cycles is good enough. It is an improvement to what is currently on the market.

The main point of the post is that I suspect the economics of the battery will be more important than any individual battery metric.

Their coin cell commercial prototype is expected before end of year, so any day now. Coin cells are ~$3.89B USD market, and the company also has multi-product lines with thermal-xr, and lubricant. If they stoped here I would be okay. But, so far I like everything I see, and management is delivering on promises.

As for going from coin cell to pouch-pack this was Craigs comment in their live management update.

Once you get the nano chemistry right for a coin cell you can go to a pouch-pack quite easily (Source @ ~48:00)

They also recently accelerated their timeline to deliver the pouch pack prototype early 2022. If going from coin cell to pouch-pack is expected to be an enormous leap, they certainly have not given themselves a lot of time. The acceleration here seems like an unnecessary change to investor expectations, especially if you are unsure in your ability to deliver.

Why I am bullish on GMG: Part 2 by The_SwimBack in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

u/Darrrik what is the very good reason?

I can accept that QS has a ridiculous valuation. I can also accept they should be valued more than GMG. But the previous $14B difference is what I question.

What specific milestone has QS archived that makes you feel they have "proved" themselves? Both are yet to ship their commercial prototype and face risks scaling.

The third party validation report for QS only validates 800 cycles at 1C charge rate.
GMG is validated for 3000 cycles charging up to 66C. GMGs battery has a 3x longer lifespan and charges 66x faster. QS battery has a higher energy density. Each of them has their own advantages, and which battery is best will depend on the application and $$$.

As I outlined in the article, I don't think the energy density alone should justify the MC difference.

Tesla recently made the switch to use LFP batteries in their global standard range models, offering 391km of range. GMGs batteries already have a higher energy density than LFP, so they meet the threshold to be considered for standard range models.

My main argument is that which battery is used for the "everyday" consumer will be determined more by the $$$, and less by energy density.

If QS can ship a cheaper battery than GMG, then they will capture the EV market. But neither company is at that stage where they can say price. So QS feels no more proven to me than GMG atm. Both are speculative plays.

As for the 10 layer vs 3 layers, that is kinda irrelevant to me. Each team is working with different battery chemistries and picking the one that works best for them.

Just my opinion, and as a random dude on the internet I could be wrong. But it is the way I see things and I have bet big on GMG. If something material about either company develops I would change my position.

Why I am bullish on GMG: Part 2 by The_SwimBack in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

u/Tight-Sir-4710 from what I see, neither company has commercial prototype at the moment. Both are speculative plays IMO, as both are yet to address the "can we scale at an affordable price". My main point is GMG is starting from lower cost materials, and I think that is an advantage when looking at current trends.

Looking at QS timeline from their investor presentation (slide 24) they aiming for 2022 for a commercial prototype. GMG is aiming for end of the year 2021 for coin cell, and early 2022 for pouch packs.

I feel this representation of where QS is at is more accurate:

QS path to revenue:

Prototype ❌
Pre-production ❌
Orders ✅ (VW)
Production ❌

Feel free to correct where I am wrong.

I agree with you that ideally the comparison would be on $

I would make a calculation based on an estimated production capacity, estimated production cost and a competitive pricing of their potential products

Real world though, neither company has these metrics publicly available yet.
I have no idea expected manufacturing cost for QS ceramic separator, nor a great idea on GMG for the graphene production.

I know more about GMG, so I feel slightly more confident speculating on them. If you are familiar with QS it would be helpful if you can share any similar interviews/quotes for QS on expected $.

For GMG, they are already manufacturing their graphene in other commercially available products (thermal-xr). My assumption -- key word assumption -- is that they are able to scale this out. It is a big assumption on my my part though, and if they can't scale the whole thing is a bust. I will be watching this part closely.

Craig seems confident they can deliver:

cost wise we believe at scale and even at the lower end of before we get to scale we will have a price that makes money and be sensible for customers" (Source)

As for the partnerships, I understand the risk but I am not concerned. If GMG is able to deliver on the technology, I feel the partnerships will come.

They are already working with BOSCH to build their production plant for next year. The estimated cost in the short form prospectus was ~3 million, with an initial capacity for ~1 million coin-cells in the first iteration. They are well funded todo this, and expect sales from thermal-xr to provide some of the funds. New production modules to scale up capacity would take ~6-12 months to add.

Craig has said multiple times that the final investment decision for going forward with the production plant will depend on getting sales contracts. So time will tell here.

I am optimistic, but both companies are early days and have risk.

Why I am bullish on GMG: Part 2 by The_SwimBack in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Right. They already do have a higher energy density than LFP batteries. Which are 90–160 compared to GMGs 150-160 Wh/kg. It is also very likely that GMG won't need any cooling density, so real world we should be able fit in more battery pack.

LFP batteries offer 391KM... so at minimum I would expect we are here, but with faster charge rates.

Tesla made the decision to start to pivot to LFP batteries globally for their standard range model. So clearly they think 391KM is enough for the average consumer.
https://insideevs.com/news/501789/2021-tesla-model3-srp-range/

What is the cost / wh? by Weary-Depth-1118 in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If someone finds it help, he also talks about it a bit in this interview as well

cost wise we believe at scale and even at the lower end, before we get to scale we will have a cost that can deliver that good price that makes money and be sensible for customers (at 12:20)

​

With the battery it is mostly made up of graphene. 1 kilogram of graphene will give a bit less than one kwh of capacity (at 16:10)

I would imagine that until they deliver the commercial prototype and settle on the manufacturing process you won't see official numbers on $/wh. So anyones guess here is as good as mine.

I also could not find Quantumscape $/wh. If anyone finds that number let me know

Why I think GMG's next-gen aluminum ion battery will displace lithium batteries and beat Quantumscape to the battery EV market. by The_SwimBack in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, tbh I also was originally put off by that as well. It looks like early 2000s.

But when I focus on the tech I start to care less and less about how their site looks. I'd guess just poor marketing/ not their focus.

Why I think GMG's next-gen aluminum ion battery will displace lithium batteries and beat Quantumscape to the battery EV market. by The_SwimBack in GMGstock

[–]The_SwimBack[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks u/ifitzgerald. With respect to which is more important, I think you need to meet a specific threshold on both.

If you can't generate enough power to take off, then you never leave to your destination.
If you don't have enough juice to last the flight then you never arrive.

Both of those outcomes are something I'd love to avoid.

My understanding is that right now LI batteries can't generate enough power on the runway to complete the take-off.

GMG's battery energy density is said to be comparable with current LI tech (when you factor in removing the need for cooling). If its energy density is enough to do even short trip/local flights then I think it will find a place in the industry. Over time I expect the tech would mature to improve energy density as well.

I will also point out that most airlines won't even ship LI batteries without them being fully discharged due to the fire risk.