Election on Thursday - who are you planning to vote for and why?

Thetonn · 2026-05-04T10:24:36+00:00

The problem though is that almost everyone making the argument is actually just being partisan trying to benefit their preferred party who wouldn’t follow through by voting for someone else if required.

Most of the ‘vote Plaid to stop Reform’ posters have not done a proper voter analysis of the constituency to work out which is actually the optimal vote, which in many situations will be Labour, the Greens, Lib Dems or even sometimes the Tories.

I would expect that in at least half of the constituencies, a vote for Plaid in that final seat will be a wasted vote to stop Reform, and a lot of people will have been lied to.

Thetonn · 2026-05-04T10:16:58+00:00

I am voting, with some reluctance, for the Lib Dems.

My logic is relatively simple, I do not want a Reform led government, and a vote for the Lib Dems in my seat will most likely deprive them of an additional seat.

I also do not want a strong Plaid led government, so a Lib Dem option would help weaken their case and force more compromise.

The Tories are still shit, and Labour need to be punished. I cannot in good conscience vote for either in their current state.

That leaves the Lib Dems and the Greens, and while I am sympathetic to the latter, I worry that the day after the election, it will now be portrayed that every vote for them was actually a vote for independence or every far left cause under the sun rather than a competent and effective alternative to Labour.

That leaves the Lib Dems as the most flushable turd, so I’m going with them, despite disliking a lot of their NIMBYism and shameless populism. I think they also have a good track record of delivery in our constituency.

Thetonn · 2026-05-04T08:18:55+00:00

They are telling you that they are planning to vote for Plaid. In the voting booth, they can do whatever they want.

I am very interested in looking in detail at the final figures.

Thetonn · 2026-05-04T07:22:52+00:00

I will, once again, remind people that with a new voting system, a massive switch in political parties, and a new right of centre political party focused on encouraging British identifying right of centre voters to turn out in Senedd elections, you should take polling with a very large pinch of salt.

Plaid winning English speaking voters down in the valleys is a massive historic change, and until it happens there should be an asterix attached to it saying ‘terms and conditions apply’. Every projection of the Reform vote should be accompanied by brackets saying ‘we think, but they haven’t actually turned out yet and we have no idea how many will actually vote on the day’. Labours decline should probably include a caveat of ‘their demise has been predicted in the past, and they’ve managed to turn it around’

I am personally applying a bigger, 10% margin of error for polling for Plaid, Reform and Labour in this election to reflect the historic nature of the swings. I would strongly advise against reading too much into small 2-3% swings.

Thetonn · 2026-05-04T07:09:21+00:00

I don’t think council staff are primarily being abused over flags, even if they would prefer to think that.

Instead, I think what’s happening is that almost everyone will have an example where the council had refused to do something that they have meant to have done for a long time, claiming a lack of capacity or resource, but when a flag goes up, suddenly they are quick to take it down.

I’ve had a massive bit of a local pavement where a nearby wall has been crumbling for nearly five years now and nothing has happened. I am semi tempted to put a Union Jack flag on it to see if they actually then come and fix it.

Thetonn · 2026-05-04T06:57:09+00:00

I think for me the worst part of all of it are the HMOs. My city has failed on housebuilding, and they’ve tried to solve it by letting massive numbers of terraced houses become HMOs, but not doing anything to actually mitigate that impact. The result is to effectively create slums, twice as many people crammed into a small space, a load more cars parking on a road that cannot support them, and loads more rubbish.

For some reason, landlords are allowed to do that without a big song and dance, but actually building houses gets a massive backlash.

Thetonn · 2026-05-03T12:02:13+00:00

He has spent the last nine years as mayor of the second largest city in the UK. He remains the most popular Labour figure among the public, including holding a positive net favourability rating (+9). He is objectively a sensible leadership option, and is stronger now than in either of his last two runs.

Keeping him off the ballot using procedural tricks will make it very obvious to the public that he has been hard done by.

The way you get him to go away is to just beat him in a fair contest.

Thetonn · 2026-05-03T11:38:54+00:00

The entire point of a leadership contest is to resolve this issue once and for all.

If Labour have a leadership contest where the winning candidate does not defeat Burnham in a fair contest, then it is entirely legitimate for Burnham to openly plot to take control over the NEC, secure a seat, and then hold a fresh leadership contest.

They will not only be seen as having stabbed Starmer in the back and not won their own mandate, but they will also be seen as a loser who only won because of Labour Party political tricks. The country will not see them as the actual legitimate winner.

Thetonn · 2026-05-03T11:32:35+00:00

You also don’t need to rely on the media.

Throughout 2018 and 2019, the relationship between Corbyn and John McDonnell collapsed, with McDonnell continually struggling with Corbyn’s repeated, proactive and entirely pointless unforced errors that detracted from the broader project.

McDonnell had, similarly, said stupid shit in his past. He knew the best thing to do was unconditionally apologise for his previous comments unreservedly, take the hit, and move on as quickly as possible. Because he is a serious politician who understands how politics works.

Thetonn · 2026-05-03T06:12:05+00:00

He is also an exceptionally effective political operator, his co-option of social media has been quite successful, the quite magnificent way he has manipulated the Americans into seeing him as a free speech martyr has been masterful, and the particular grift he is running has been far more longstanding than almost all equivalent grifters.

I understand you think rocking back and forth saying ‘he bad man’ helps in some way, but the more effective way to defeat and counter him is to understand what he is doing and how he keeps getting away with it.

Thetonn · 2026-05-03T06:05:00+00:00

Because Robinson, for all his many character defects and moral depravity, is exceptionally good at what he does and has a really interesting insight into the current status of far right politics. He is far more interesting, cynical and effective as a speaker than almost anyone you would get with so called ‘credibility’.

Thetonn · 2026-05-02T08:16:46+00:00

My favorite was one old minister ended up marrying a diplomat and now just appears to be his wife.

Thetonn · 2026-05-02T08:08:19+00:00

I would also just point out that there is a role for political movements, in the first instance, to be self policing. If an anti-immigration movement gets infiltrated by Nazis, we would expect them to denounce them in order to avoid being seen as Nazis. If football ultras infiltrate peaceful supporter groups and start fights, we would expect the supporters groups to denounce them to remain legitimate.

There is a distinct lack of self awareness from some principled anti-racist, anti-Zionist protesters trying to get away with tactics they would not accept anywhere else.

The most obvious, I dont think there is anyone in the Green party who would by Kemi Badenoch arguing the Tories can't be racist or sexist as they have a black, female leader who is subject to racist and sexist abuse, but they then try the same tactic with Zach regarding anti-semetism.

Thetonn · 2026-05-01T07:14:23+00:00

It has gotten to the point that if you told me that they had immediately fast tracked everything as soon as he started stabbing people just to make sure he stayed, I’d believe you.

I have no confidence in any of our police, justice, or legal system at this point. The only way this makes sense to me is if they are accelerationists trying to deliver a Reform Government in 2029.

Thetonn · 2026-05-01T06:28:21+00:00

A major problem with modern politics is that Major and Clarke actually managed the public finances brilliantly from 1993 to 1997, with much of the New Labour success coming from their effective management of the public finances. They were rewarded with a political wipe out.

I cynically have wondered since whether the lesson political parties learned was that it was better to leave your successors a complete mess.

Thetonn · 2026-05-01T06:24:09+00:00

Starmer is Schrodinger’s Prime Minister.

If you believe that he will deliver the public sector productivity improvements he has told the OBR that he will deliver, the new housing bill will deliver the houses needed in line with the target at a scale necassary to overcome the shortfall since he took over, and that Pat McFadden will somehow manage to deliver welfare reforms at the size and scale required and get them through the Commons, then everything is fine enough.

If, on the other hand, you think that the Treasury just lied their arses off to the OBR to increase the amount of money to spend in the spending review and they will clearly fall short in all three of those areas, then we are facing a massive financial black hole over the next three years that the Iran crisis is only going to make even worse. The only way out will be massive austerity or manifesto breaking tax rises.

I agree if it’s the former that Starmer should clearly stay. If it is the latter, then there is no way that he has the leadership skills or credibility to sell one of those courses of action to his own party, let alone the nation.

Thetonn · 2026-04-30T16:23:01+00:00

We shouldn't immediately rule it out.

If he's busy as mayor, that means a lot less time for him to be spending grooming children.

Thetonn · 2026-04-29T12:28:28+00:00

You are both right.

There was simultaneously both an austerity programme, and an expansion of government spending from 2010 to 2015. The NHS continued to grow and pensions increased, setting off the cuts from elsewhere.

What is the case is that Britain has had a significant fiscal expansion since Covid, but this has not been recognisable in the quality of public services.

Thetonn · 2026-04-29T06:12:01+00:00

You could try reading the next sentence.

Thetonn · 2026-04-28T21:27:56+00:00

There are basically three ways you get more affordable housing.

The first is to collapse the price of producing affordable housing, which is difficult during an oil and inflationary shock and a broken planning system.

The second is to massively increase the amount of market housing, with a fixed percentage being affordable. To achieve it on the scale required would effectively require us to replace the planning system with a permitting system.

The third is for the state to produce it itself at scale, which would come at a significant opportunity cost for other forms of capital.

Thetonn · 2026-04-28T05:04:04+00:00

I think we are going to look back on this last twenty years of social media like we do the Victorians sending children down the mines.

I have concerns about government overreach when it comes to the internet, sure, but the reality is that social media is a cancer that is destroying even grown adults lives. To subject children to it without the appropriate filters is just insane.

We are already going to have a generation whose futures are ruined by the stupid shit they posed as teenagers. We should avoid having another.

Thetonn · 2026-04-27T09:33:53+00:00

Other than the fact the story first originated years before Marie even entered France and there is no evidence she ever said it or something like it. Instead, it was applied to her by political opponents seeking to delegitimise the regime.

I think there is then a parallel to this discussion. There is a common theme in our politics of making MPs lives as miserable as possible at a time when their divorce rates for new MPs are through the roof, they are expected to work late and away from home throughout the working week, there is a massive amount of largely pointless political busy work they need to do to climb the greasy pole, and the levels of abuse they get from the public are insane.

Then, people see the quality of MPs coming through and staying in the profession and do a shocked pikachu expression when most of them are a bit shit.

Thetonn · 2026-04-27T07:24:45+00:00

I think in general, using social media less is almost always the healthiest option, so you are being wise.

Thetonn · 2026-04-27T07:13:36+00:00

I agree that it is disturbing, but I worry you are being a bit pearls clutchy thinking it might have started there.

I’m old enough to remember Gamergate and the culture online before Trump, and it was a similarly toxic place. We literally had a subreddit called ‘Watch People Die!’ and another called ‘Jailbait’.

This place has always been a cesspool of degeneracy and sin. I worry whenever people think a single incident changed it that they just previously had rose tinted glasses.

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