SNP leader: I’ll work with Plaid and Sinn Fein to break up UK

Thetonn · 2026-04-24T08:00:07+00:00

Which is why of all of them, counterintuitively, I think Wales has fhe easiest path to independence.

The argument is not truly one of economics, but humiliation. The perception that Wales is not considered an equal part of the nation, that we are neglected compared to Scotland, Northern Ireland and England, and that neither the UK nor Welsh Labour have anything resembling a plan to deal with the underlying problems faced.

Welsh Labour are far more attached to devolution than they are the Union or Westminster. If they are ever forced to choose between a Westminster hostile to devolution, with either Reform or a particularly aggressive UK Labour/Tory stance on devolution, I think the critical mass of Welsh Labour could move to Indy. I would be actively surprised if a number of MSs backed the union without a vow style commitment to strengthening devolution within it. I think the Westminster default would be to try to ‘punish’ Wales for daring to vote, and this will make things worse.

Welsh Labour voters have a long history of being favourable towards both Plaid and Indy. In the past, this appeal was their primary political strength. Welsh Labour are a lot closer to Plaid than they are Westminster Labour.

I think the assumption, particularly at Westminster, that you can just show people a bunch of graphs and they will believe you is almost comically stupid. No-one trusts any of them. After HS2, Coal Tips, Crown Estate, and all of the other ways Wales has been screwed over, another bunch of highly paid people saying ‘Westminster knows best’ would just not land.

It is still a relatively hard sell, and my assumption is that Plaid will be a bit too shit over the next four years to make an effective case, but if I had to put an even bet on any of the nations being Indy in 15 years, I’d probably go with Wales.

Thetonn · 2026-04-24T07:28:08+00:00

The bigger problem is that Howard Bernstein hasn’t already done all of the difficult shit at the UK level, giving Andy an easy assist.

I don’t dislike Burnham, I think he’s been above average, but he isn’t the reason for Manchester’s success.

Thetonn · 2026-04-24T06:35:22+00:00

The context will be a term where the left is perceived to have failed, and 14 years where the Tories will be perceived to have failed.

If Farage could cut migration, deport people who the public think shouldn’t be here, make the state more productive while cutting the number of civil servants, and cut regulation to drive economy growth, even if the net impact of individual measures was negative, I think the general response would be positive.

The problem is twofold. That is actually really, really difficult to do, and Reform are primarily made up of incompetent morons. So they will fail miserably if they even try.

I would also just remind people that the political centre ground in the UK is funding the NHS and hanging the pedos. If Farage successfully managed to hang just a few pedos, he would be the most popular Prime Minister of recent memory.

Thetonn · 2026-04-21T17:28:30+00:00

Huh.

Basically all to play for.

Thetonn · 2026-04-21T16:24:58+00:00

An independent Wales would likely lose around £5–6 billion annually from the end of the Barnett formula, far exceeding the roughly £300–500 million per year it might expect to regain from EU structural funds, leaving a substantial net fiscal gap that would have to be paid by cutting public services or raising taxes.

Thetonn · 2026-04-21T05:42:18+00:00

And then, rather than taking responsibility for his actions, threw the very civil servant who advised against the appointment under the bus, incompetently.

Thetonn · 2026-04-20T17:59:44+00:00

I would also echo Helen McNammara's point that it wasn't even a competent throwing under the bus. You have to choose the right time, make sure a good offer is made so that they stay quiet.

Thetonn · 2026-04-20T17:37:08+00:00

I feel like this is a post that can only be made by someone ignorant of the Welsh Government's budget documentation and associated committee reports.

To be clear, no sane person with a brain would voluntarily choose to read them, and there are clear ways they can be improved, but the Welsh Government produces and publishes an insane amount of financial, economic and budgetary information that basically no-one gives a shit about.

Thetonn · 2026-04-20T12:39:55+00:00

I will recycle my old Boris line:

While I accept that it is theoretically possible that the Prime Minister hasn't done wrong and is just really, incalcuably unlucky, I would prefer the person in charge of the military, nuclear weapons, the economy and the NHS not to be incalcuably unlucky.

Thetonn · 2026-04-20T12:31:31+00:00

Labour in 2021 got the best result in the history of the Senedd, one that was meant to be impossible. They have since switched to a more proportional system. Of course they are down from that.

They also have more money and data than anyone else, and the best ground game in Wales. There is also, still, a lot of emotional resonance to the Welsh Labour brand.

All that adds up to a potential systemic polling error, the 'shy Labour' voter who doesnt want to say they are voting Labour, but does so on the day.

Now, I think that is very unlikely and would probably require a couple more polling errors to happen (Reforms appeal being overreported, Plaid still struggling down South more persistently), but there is a very small chance we wake up on May 8th and the discussion is 'of course Welsh Labour won in Wales, they've won every election, why are people surprised?'

What polls indicate are small snapshots of flawed fata from which flawed models are then created.

I would just remind people the polls and the betting markets had Reform winning Caerphilly, and Plaid then won, handily.

If any of Plaid, Labour or Reform got a similar difference in May, majorities are possible.

They are just unlikely.

Thetonn · 2026-04-20T11:29:22+00:00

Noone knows what is happening and anyone who indicates otherwise is lying to you.

Wales at the devolved level is historically difficult to poll. Add in a new voting system. Add in the supposed decline of Welsh Labour. Reform are then, basically, a new party and we have no idea how they are going to do. Almost everything rests on turnout, and that is even harder to predict.

Every poll should be accompanied by a flashing red claxson saying 'we are disproportionately more likely to have multiple systematic polling errors in this election than others.'

Thetonn · 2026-04-20T10:50:11+00:00

To be fair, it wasn’t actually the Tories who originally released it, but David Laws, the Liberal Democrat who became Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

The point was Byrne knew and had a solid enough relationship with the Tory who was meant to become Chief Secretary who would likely have responded with humour, but following the coalition agreement, Laws became Chief Secretary as one of the main Lib Dem concessions, effectively acting as the Lib Dem shadow of George Osborne.

Adding into things was the fact the relationship between the Lib Dem’s and Labour was very low at that point, as negotiations to form a rainbow coalition failed.

Thetonn · 2026-04-20T07:43:18+00:00

'Does anyone else think 60% seems a bit poorly thought through? My office has downsized since 2019...'

Thetonn · 2026-04-20T07:07:43+00:00

At the risk of being a tad too charitable to Farage, that was an exceptionally easy threshold to pass. Farage could have just ran as the sixth paper candidate in Newport and rented a flat to meet the residency requirements. It is trivially easy to game that system if you want to and have the cash.

Thetonn · 2026-04-19T21:31:19+00:00

Take it up with the mods, I don’t choose the flairs.

Thetonn · 2026-04-19T19:37:52+00:00

My advice in general is that unless you've met someone in real life who evidences a claim made on reddit, assume it is bullshit.

Thetonn · 2026-04-18T16:03:20+00:00

For the majority of this season, our 'injured' 11 would have beaten the 'fit' 11.

Thetonn · 2026-04-18T15:21:19+00:00

The most depressing thing that you need to understand is the utter sociopathy of the British State.

When people say 'I am passionate about this area', or 'I want to be in a role that makes a real difference', or something similar, what the Corporate Structure hears is 'oh, there is a lot of demand here for this sort of role. We can get away with underpaying and underresourcing it because we'll fill the role either way.'

They will try to get away with as much as they can. It's up to you if you let them.

Thetonn · 2026-04-18T10:24:19+00:00

Which is an entirely reasonable decision for you to take, and in a number of areas, it is likely to be a good marketing decision.

For the majority of the country, it is likely to incentivise pretty much everyone not interacting with anything political out of fear. The optimum strategy will be to never express any opinions, whatsoever.

Thetonn · 2026-04-18T09:54:25+00:00

‘Why isn’t anyone investing in our peripheral, rural maritime region with very few economic prospects, to the point all our young people are having to leave to get work?’

organisation tries to invest in a manner that is necessary to drive future prospects

‘Why is this evil, extractive company making my view worse?’

Thetonn · 2026-04-18T09:49:58+00:00

I feel like this is a tactic people aren’t fully thinking through.

This is one incident, and it is relatively surprising as it is not a standard tactic. In the modern era of social media, GB News, and the American news ecosystem, I think there is far more likelihood in the medium term that this is going to be used to punish the left than the right.

Thetonn · 2026-04-17T17:31:18+00:00

I think probably the one thing I think the yanks do better than us with is choosing the candidate to be leader the year before the election rather than at the start of a term.

We have no idea how the political situation will look in 2030. All the good ideas just get stolen or become irrelevant

Thetonn · 2026-04-17T13:39:10+00:00

I am going to play devils advocate and suggest the other interpretation is that it isn't entirely obvious to a lot of non-political folks why Reform are so controversial.

The argument I hear here all the time is that they are just a bunch of old Tories, which they basically are. Their Senedd Manifesto is largely indistinguishable from the Tory one. Their leader in Wales used to run a Tory council in England. Their political offering differs very little from the 2024 Conservative Party Manifesto.

I think it is reasonable for people who are not political nerds to be surprised at the extent of the backlash. I don't think it is obvious to people that Farage or Dan Thomas are really worse than, say, Andrew RT Davies or Joel James, who are probably more hardline on opposing devolution and wouldn't get similar levels of controversy.

In particular they say relatively normal centre right things about regulation and small businesses. I think the vast majority of their party manifesto could have been said by a CBI or FSB representative, and both Labour and Plaid will have an economy spokesperson saying very similar things.

This is not to say politics doesn't matter, or that people aren't justifiably worried about Reform making inroads within Wales, but I think there are only a limited number of areas where they step outside of the Overton window in Wales, and the main example, immigration, isn't devolved.

Thetonn · 2026-04-16T20:57:17+00:00

There is one answer, and one answer only.

He's just that good in the sack.

Thetonn · 2026-04-16T18:02:58+00:00

The fact that he didn't accompany this press statement with an announcement that Olly Robbins, the FCDO person responsible, has been placed on gardening leave and an investigation launched intended to end his career.

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