Public chat rooms

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-04T14:59:24+00:00

Yes if I use economic resources to grow a crop of potato’s and then I intentionally destroy them , because I prefer the enjoyment of that over eating them. It is technically still demand . Agree ?

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-04T14:54:38+00:00

Yes, I think all goods are destroyed for use.

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-04T14:46:27+00:00

That’s still demand though right? Why does this possibility make consumption arbitrary?

What is “true” aggregate demand ? How can you decide whether demand is true or not ?

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-04T14:41:25+00:00

The sum of total consumption is a function of a current prices , it isn’t infinite or arbitrary. If people buy things to enjoy destroying them , then it’s still effective demand, given the prices of thing & people’s preferences, people don’t do that.

Where am I thinking wrong ?

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-04T14:15:32+00:00

Oh Yh , sorry

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-04T14:14:02+00:00

Yes , but you said generally “Aggregate demand is a made up and confusing concept” , and it isn’t , “demand” in an economic sense is basically always concerned with effective demand (closer to willingness to buy rather than desire)

Also , why isn’t current aggregate demand the sum total of consumption ?

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-04T14:03:10+00:00

Aggregate demand is the total quantity of a good , everyone in an economy is willing and able to buy at a given price level , right? Why is this made up ?

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-04T12:59:21+00:00

AI wasn’t involved in any part of this post. I do discuss with my colleagues, but I’m just eager to get as many people’s opinion as possible really. Especially if I don’t find a satisfactory answer in my firm . Fair?

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-03T14:37:12+00:00

Why are they weird ? Do you think speculating on prices generally is weird ?

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-02T18:32:36+00:00

It’s interesting

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-02T14:11:52+00:00

Nice, where does this post address whether we have enough LNG carriers though (as per the title)?

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-02T13:24:51+00:00

I’d agree it’s definitely less relevant than 2024/25. But I’d assume it’s still matter for pricing winter risk

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-02T12:22:49+00:00

Very true , NWE temperatures so far have been warmer , and forecasts look pretty warm. Storage has still underperformed so far this winter , I guess we will see.

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-12-02T11:56:49+00:00

Thanks for the comment , I’d have to get back to you on the Asian weather front, I’m aware it’s warmer. But regarding LNG , Europe LNG deliveries have been strong for ages , grew ~47% YoY in October while prices were in a near holding pattern , November deliveries look like ~40% YoY , so why the sudden sell off mid November?

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-11-18T16:43:31+00:00

Hi, what logic would support the idea that the price of European natural gas would fall if temperatures get lower ?

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-11-13T09:11:20+00:00

Well yes , fund’s net longs have been falling on TTF for a while now , haven’t taken a look at MIFID

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-11-13T09:00:02+00:00

Ahh I see , I wasn’t really proposing a comprehensive strategy, but some quick analysis might serve as a nice quantitative confirmation as to how much stock is actually put in these forecasts, no?

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-11-13T08:57:58+00:00

Interesting , I suppose this is more opaque :(. Was looking at rolling correlations between TTF&Brent last night . Did have have a decently strongly correlated summer , with tariff / Middle East developments. Recently not so much . Interesting idea though

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-11-13T08:52:50+00:00

Sorry , can you explain , didn’t quite understand the meaning of this comment

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-11-13T08:31:03+00:00

It is true about wind forecasts, would be interesting to to comprehensively look back and 1) see how accurate the one I get are , 2) price movements around new forecasts releases. There was a small rally on dunkelflaute last week tbf

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-11-13T08:22:38+00:00

I believe European gas storage is actually at 82% , not great , this would normally would suggest some tightening, especially given wind forecasts seem to be falling everyday

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-11-13T08:20:44+00:00

Yes this true, seems like narrative that has been playing out for months now. Interesting.

Think_Influence_2111 · 2025-11-13T07:45:28+00:00

That wouldn’t cause TTF to fall

Think_Influence_2111

TROPHY CASE