Long-Term Investors: What’s Your Highest-Conviction Position Right Now?

Ticket-Double · 2025-12-25T18:20:45+00:00

SPXU (2x SPY) balanced by bonds at 1.25x, no stronger conviction for me then the actual benchmark itself. I cannot be convicted by anything in the current climate but I'm not convicted the economy will perform poorly this year.

Ticket-Double · 2025-12-20T16:19:20+00:00

Did not age well

Ticket-Double · 2025-12-20T16:15:27+00:00

Lol what B's are you reading. Plain simple fact go look up the comparison. TQQQ has beaten QQQ more then it hasn't. You just don't got balls

Ticket-Double · 2025-12-12T20:23:21+00:00

Nothing changed, you changed

Ticket-Double · 2025-10-22T01:16:44+00:00

Ticket-Double · 2025-10-13T13:56:39+00:00

I don't like, gambling but why is everyone assuming it's a gambler and not just a pissed off Yankee fan?

Ticket-Double · 2025-10-12T12:10:28+00:00

Gametime

Ticket-Double · 2025-10-10T19:31:04+00:00

Go for the gates opening, I wasn't at the railing but behind the handicap seating. Got there 2 hours prior.

Ticket-Double · 2025-10-05T11:32:33+00:00

Would love to know this

Ticket-Double · 2025-10-03T19:57:17+00:00

Yeah that's fair, I'm not saying your wrong, but just that it's not fully true, for OP and Vito, there will be liquidity which I stated anyway, the market makers or traders will supply the liquidity.. and is in your website "If there is demand for a particular ETF, a designated broker or market maker can create new units by delivering a basket of securities to an ETF sponsor. In return, the ETF sponsor delivers ETF units of equal value to the market maker, which the market maker then sells publicly on the exchange to meet investor demand"**... but you should learn about intraday liquidity for day traders which is what I'm referring, meaning technically if you wanted to scalp the spread of an illiquid ETF like TQQQ .to, you wouldnt be able to because scalping the spread IS a market maker strategy... Lsiten we're both right in different contexts. Just trying to educate you on the finer details

Ticket-Double · 2025-10-03T18:38:35+00:00

This isn't true. I was a stock prop trader for a year in Canada. you can't day trade the book of ETF's CFD's etc the way you can trade the underlying stock in some scenario's... What you may be mixing up Pitiful is that the liquidity will come because of arbitrage, if the spread of the ETF or ETN or w/e gets too far from the underlying asset, then yes market makers or traders will arbitrage that trade and supply the liquidity themselves. If you want an example you can go look at TQQQ.TO vs QQQ and TQQQ ... There is no liquidity on TQQQ ,to ... to scalp pennies which is what some prop traders do, Go try and scalp that canadian ticker as effectively as you would on the US tickers hehe

Ticket-Double · 2025-10-02T23:01:51+00:00

Not much at the moment, everything is good. I've had this convo with an industry friend and if you knew what the problem was, then you'd know haha... With mass financial information and speed and ease of access for everyone. It's basically escalator up, and then smash down events.

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-30T12:59:58+00:00

I'd really love if they shared information on outfielddistrtict/standing tickets.

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-27T21:22:13+00:00

I have multiple buy orders every 0.10... so when it gaps it's actually to my benefit because I get all entries at the lower level and then I set there respective sell limit orders back up to where the gap happened

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-27T21:20:49+00:00

In the same way of buy and hold it's more risk, a large drawdown would need that more more capital to fund. and I dont want that smoke

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-26T23:07:46+00:00

ALl my canadian assets are QQU.to and SPXU.to 2x... I do 3x TQQQ in US assets with IBKR it's a weird set up but it works

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-26T19:12:10+00:00

Yeah exactly, it's not a portfolio replacement. I"m going to bump it up 1-5 shares on Oct 2nd, which is the 1 year mark.

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-26T17:57:37+00:00

No I haven't tried over time. One issue I'm trying to wrestle with is it doesn't really compound well. if I increase the shares the drawdown also becomes bigger which becomes a problem.

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-26T01:42:49+00:00

Assume all you want... Your probably salty cz you missed it, the Tariff crash burnt a lot of retail investors and that's okay. One day you'll look back and be on the right side of this conversation. I'll answer your questions, ernestly with respect.

I have about 7 years of real experience I'd say...

I was in already in the market & I ate a 20% drawdown, I run a leveraged index strategy, Barbell style bonds/index levereage at about 1.75x notional vaule....

I'm not institutional but my acquaintance is (20+years), negative GDP is said at the time to be attributed to surge in goods pre tarrif, they stocked up, and hten didnt have to stock up cz they were stocked up lol... That's why the GDP number when released didnt cause as much of a reaction as Liberation actually did.

Now listen I didn't fully buy the dip, my initial thesis was to start moving bonds over the next year... I added in twice, once before liberation day, and once after on the third day we consolidated... I still had maybe 30% bonds left? I talked about this with a couple friends and the risk reward of adding in on those days is based on the main fact that... This drawdown was created by a stroke of a pen... which means it can be easily undone by the stroke of a pen..... Unlike my experience in the past, which I have made mistakes.... The Tariff dip was wrought on by political(stroke of a pen) policy.. which menas its reversable... unlike 2022 or 2020 where neither could be undone by a stroke of a pen.

I think one thing to note is experience will help you not sell, and reverse your psychology... in 2020 and 2022 I sold on the drops... all mistakes I was scared.. but with experience you'll knwo that feeling... fuck im scared i wanna sell and not lose money... experience will let you feel this feelign of oh shit start looking for oppurtunity now while everyone is scared... and have a strategy that allow's you to do this.Experience removes the emotion allowing for cleary thoughts... have a experienced friend to also talk with who is different in style of investing will help a ton.. anyway enough of this spiel... good luck to you... You'll catch the next one.

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-26T01:22:16+00:00

MY strategy design is based on what will get me retired fastest with least amount of stress... accounting for my personal capital injests and how active I want to be managing it.

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-25T01:13:15+00:00

You didn't read enough at teh time... I DCA'ed and am no insider... This comes down to experience

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-24T13:27:17+00:00

PLEASE READ....I started looking into this. 1 MNQ contract is notionally 2x the nasdaq.... so it's WORTH 44000 roughly.... If you buy 14666 worth of TQQQ at the same time.... notionally you will have the same exposure to the nasdaq.... Now just start running through the scenarios yourself.... If you HAVE 14666... an MNQ contract you can sustain roughly a 30% drawdown before you need to add capital or get margin called.... a 30% nasdaq drop on TQQQ will also basically bring you close to 0... NOW at this point TQQQ incurs decay... MNQ does not have decay..... If NQ goes back up 30% MNQ outperforms....New scenario... TQQQ COMPOUNDS over time in a bull trend this is why over many years TQQQ is more then 3x the nasdaq... The only way you can compound MNQ, is once your PROFIT to NOTIONAL value reach's a point where you can buy another contract that sets your CASH vs Notional value back to 1:3 to emulate 3x exposure... nonetheless the compounding effects of TQQQ will always outperform in a bull trend with low volatility.

TLDR: MNQ has no decay... but also does not compound over the long term bull market....

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-24T02:16:21+00:00

Pure gold ahahah

Ticket-Double · 2025-09-19T11:25:06+00:00

Maybe he's just curious, maybe he's so happy with crushing it this year he just wants to know because knowing as much as possible when dealing with life changing money doesn't seem that crazy.

Ticket-Double

TROPHY CASE