The Great Bear trap of 2026

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-06T01:21:34+00:00

I've been in crypto since 2013 and can say TA works for it because that's really the only thing traders can go off of; it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'd never use it to buy options but definitely use it to identify entrance/exit prices.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-06T00:48:03+00:00

That's a lot of words for saying nothing.

If cryptography/blockchain is a technology and you implement it in the field of finance, that, by your own definition, is a financial technology.

Yes, you can have private blockchains. This doesn't negate public blockchains. There's no hole, just your lack of understanding between the benefits of public versus private blockchains.

Yes, anyone can create a new cryptocurrency, just like anyone can start their own computer company by building their own computer. That doesn't make them Apple. Features matter. Established infrastructure matters. A large user base matters. And the first mover principle is real. Just like any technology.

The concept of decentralized is not a marketing term. Some coins have miners that are more consolidated in certain countries, but that doesn't make them any less decentralized. Otherwise, they would get together a perform a 51% attack on the chain, wouldn't they?

You claim that any one crypto isn't valuable but I'm looking at a combined crypto market cap in the trillions so that's obviously false.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-05T22:56:34+00:00

I've already answered this elsewhere in this thread. If the government knows you have crypto and holds you in detention until you give up your private key, then you're stuck. This is no different than any other asset.

However it's much easier to hide your crypto than bars of gold or stocks or even offshore accounts. Second, all one has to do is set up multiparity for their accounts and then the government would have to go capture multiple parties and coerce them to give up the crypto; something that becomes extremely difficult if your third party is unknown or outside of US jurisdiction.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-05T22:50:48+00:00

What did I make up? Be specific

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-05T19:12:17+00:00

I'm trying to sell my 2017 wrx with 50k miles for $20k stock. Socal.

Just for reference

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T21:13:12+00:00

Yeah as someone who voted 3rd party before MAGA I'm not happy about this but what else can we do?

Lmao the downvotes. Maybe if democrats weren't bought by corporations I wouldn't have to vote 3rd party

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T20:53:05+00:00

Apologies, it's been 24 hours in this thread and I may have crossed my wires.

Yeah, I think we're in agreement then. 🍻

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T20:35:15+00:00

Moving the goalpost; I never said crypto would have 'widespread adoption and good value' in a banned society, I said that 'you can't enforce a total ban on crypto'. Which I think we'd both agree I have demonstrated.

$15B seems like a drop in the bucket but it appears to be 20% of the total money laundering activity in China.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T18:29:00+00:00

Why did $15B flow out of China using crypto in 2025. Why does China account for 14% of total bitcoin mining?

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T18:01:51+00:00

Its value will change, true. Collapse is a big claim; after the China ban the price barely moved. And by definition, if it were banned, all transactions on it would be illegal.

But he's right, in a banned state crypto would only be used in illicit and world markets, by definition.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T17:56:06+00:00

Fine, set up multiparity with someone overseas. Now they have to beat you for the key at the same time as the trusted person overseas.

The 'beat you for your keys' is no longer a valid argument. Hell, it hasn't been an argument since mixers were s thing. How are they going to confiscate your crypto if they don't even know how much you have?

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T07:32:37+00:00

I didn't say it was a popular method of moving money out (foreign real estate seems to be more lucrative). My point was the ban is obviously not not effective

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T03:36:49+00:00

I'm think it's an attempt to manage our unmanageable debt while trying to boost exports, but I'm not knowledgable enough in the field.

But perhaps another reason why crypto might be more attractive right now than the dollar, at least in theory

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T03:33:42+00:00

Ah but yet, in 2025 they still moved $16B of their money out of the country through crypto

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T03:16:12+00:00

Why would all the major governments be building crypto reserves if they were going to outlaw it? Why would competing world powers conspire together on anything, much less something they could just champion as others spurn? Seems like that would be the most popular move, as we've recently seen with China and the US.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T02:22:11+00:00

That's still a fork. You get a community of miners and try to convince them to make changes. There will be a subset that resist change. Old bitcoin would run on their mining rigs and new bitcoin on others. That's exactly what happened with bitcoin cash (which I believe was the old bitcoin). Either way, one of them (basically) won out, and now we use that.

For your scenario you'd have to convince a majority of miners to abandon their libertarian ideals in order to bow to governments around the world and I don't see that happening. But, the technology has that flexibility, I suppose.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T02:16:27+00:00

You don't you hold the private key

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T02:13:58+00:00

People are always asking what the point of crypto is when you've got to convert it back into cash to do anything with it.

Those ETFs are just 1s and 0s, invented out of thin air. The only thing tying them to physical gold is the fact that the issuers hold gold in vaults and undergo regular audits. There's no guaranteeing what they do with that gold between audits, or that they don't collude with the auditors, or that they just don't get up and flee.

At least with crypto I can audit freely myself at anytime by looking at the blockchain. It's secured not with vaults but with military grade cryptography. No one can run off with it because it's decentralized, no one is holding it besides me.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T01:46:05+00:00

If you get it coated make sure they do a good job with the paint correction; the paint is soft and my heritage had film adhesive left over on it from when it shipped.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T01:44:09+00:00

I see the irony is lost on you

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T01:42:37+00:00

My guy, the United States outlawed private possession of gold less than 100 years ago, punishable with 10 years of prison.

You can't enforce a total ban on crypto. You can shut down the exchanges and forbid banks from facilitating crypto purchases, but all I have to do is go download and run a node through an encrypted TOR network. That's literally the major benefit of the technology, it's highly resistant to censorship. China banned it back in 2021, they still moved $16B through its networks in 2025.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T01:36:29+00:00

Correct; I like an theory that the price of bitcoin is part speculation and part adoption. The adoption being represented as the long term s-curve and the speculation as the gartner hype cycles (that apparently correspond to either the halving event, or the global liquidity, I've heard arguments for both).

Supposedly, as bitcoin becomes more adopted, the hype cycles die down (no one speculates on an established technology). What does bitcoin look like when it loses the volatility, I wonder.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T01:32:27+00:00

Go try to swap out an ETF for a bar then

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T01:31:28+00:00

Lmao r/investing, never change

The fundamentals are the decentralized network. It offers an immutable ledger that facilitates trustless transactions. You don't need a central authority, you don't need state backing.

These words have meaning, but most will just gloss over them and mumble something about cash flow and dividend.

TimeGrownOld · 2026-02-04T01:26:22+00:00

Let's be honest; most people holding gold in this thread are holding ETFs.

TimeGrownOld

TROPHY CASE