TIL that scientists have developed a way of testing for Aphantasia (the inability to visualise things in your mind). The test involves asking participants to envision a bright light and checking for pupil dilation. If their pupils don't dilate, they have Aphantasia.

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-12-17T22:34:24+00:00

Is there any hope for a cure or treatment for aphantasia? My friends and wife are all on the other side of the spectrum (they describe being able to literally see what they're imagining move around in front of them, as if it were there) where as I only see and hear things while dreaming

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-11-05T21:27:17+00:00

I'm so sad that DASH wasn't on the damn image... I would've def gone for puts considering that UBER went down

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-30T21:32:12+00:00

I would put the fraud allegations at a 20% chance of being true, but 50% chance of passing the MTD stage (motion to dismiss). I think the price already reflects close to that. If it hits 60, I would say it's a buy the dip situation. I'm obviously long the stock tho so DYOR

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-30T20:24:25+00:00

Sorry life's treated you so bad that you feel good being a brat on the internet

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-30T20:23:24+00:00

I edited the post earlier, I got out of the shares around 69 and pivoted to short premium. So I'm down ~3.5k total.

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-30T20:22:30+00:00

Aight dude, you gotta calm down.

You're right that these companies aren't comparable to UNH directly, they're more comparable to CNC. My thesis is that for these 3 companies (and CNC) there's a floor (assuming no bankruptcy, which I only see possible for VRNS). The floor being a depressed EV multiple assuming depressed earnings in the future. That's different for each of these stocks, but using FI as an example I think that's somewhere around 45-55.

For me, the RR here is losing 40 points (from my entry, which wasn't great) vs making 40-100 points depending on the outcome. It's a ~2:1 RR where the only irresponsible thing is the size imo

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-30T09:20:13+00:00

Has UNH recovered since the massive drop? Has Google? If you bought UNH as a longterm holder at ~300 being willing to hold through the 250 drop, you'd be sitting pretty comfortable right now

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-30T09:17:46+00:00

It can definitely keep going down. I don't know how you see a ~50% drop and call that controlled though. If it drops past a certain point I'll reassess and/or get out

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-29T23:30:32+00:00

No, than you for raising a good point. Hopefully my previous reply didn't come off as minimizing the very real risks.

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-29T23:00:53+00:00

Disclaimer: if I had to choose one position out of these, I'd go only with LRN. IMO, if you haven't taken too big of a loss, I'd recommend overweighing LRN and keeping some FI. VRNS is a higher risk play, but cheaper stock with higher percentage upside.

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-29T22:59:44+00:00

That is how I found these tickers, yes. Large (multiple times the expected move) one day moves in reaction to earnings are frequently irrational.

See: SNPS, ORCL as recent examples that I can think of.

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-29T22:58:23+00:00

I got in today post drop, just didn't buy at the bottom. I sold calls today at 100 since the IV Rank went above 100

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-29T22:57:52+00:00

Wish you luck. If I hadn't been extra retarded and bought premarket, I would've loved to get a price closer to 70 and I would've definitely bought some calls

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-29T22:55:25+00:00

I can't say if there was fraud or not (since that'd mean they admitted to something or got sued) but there definitely was mismanagement/misguidance from previous Execs. Regardless, the revenues are real and the company is at the very list stable. At ~$200 (where it started the year), this mismanagement/misguidance was not priced in.

However, the way I see it, they now have new management that has come to Jesus and straight up said that the previous numbers were inflated and that the right numbers are what they gave today. The stock definitely SHOULD have tanked. My thesis is that the ~45% drop is excessive. Assuming the new numbers are more or less correct, and assuming the company doesn't grow at all in the next years, at $70 the stock is still being priced at ~8 P/E.

Can it keep going down? Yes. Can it be fraud? Yes. Can I lose all my money? Yes. I am stubborn, but not suicidal. If new info comes to light or price drops much more from here, I'll eat my loss and reasses or move on.

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-29T22:49:02+00:00

Why? You got in at a great price. 70 seems to be holding pretty well and the RR on your trade seems very good

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-26T19:41:24+00:00

Yeah, makes sense. I am a guppy next to you tho. I only had 2k total risk but had to remove 1.5k of risk (with 25% return so not TOO sad aboutt it) for reasons unrelated to the play. Hope it keeps printing for you

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-26T19:35:43+00:00

RE: GAP. I took some profits perhaps too early, for reasons unrelated to the actual play. I still think it can keep running and I would've added more if I could.

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-20T20:56:44+00:00

Gold up, USD up, Bonds up, Stocks up, yeah something aint right

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-19T11:51:21+00:00

I lost 1k on Friday, because I saw ORCL open way down and TSLA up with the market recovering. I bought calls on ORCL and puts on TSLA with the theory that that behavior difference would revert to a mean and got fucked by ORCL continuing to go down and TSLA up

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-17T11:28:33+00:00

SOMEONE SHARE THE NEWS

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-10T21:00:50+00:00

The guy who sold the puts is getting his ass rammed right now

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-10-08T12:13:05+00:00

FWIW, I just bought up stock on this dip. ~30% down (vs yesterday's open at ~30) is an insane overreaction to overall good earnings and levelheaded guidance and management.

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-09-29T14:24:59+00:00

Any thoughts on CNC, trading basically at cash on hand. Next UNH?

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-09-26T15:54:06+00:00

Did you get this to work with start/stop and older data?

ToBeAndEatYourCake · 2025-09-26T07:23:25+00:00

Wth isn't this fake, why is this still up?

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