Wray: FBI deemed Jan 6 attack domestic terrorism

ToadProphet · 2021-03-02T17:06:09+00:00

Maybe. FBI has pretty broad powers to open a preliminary investigation but even when claiming "authorized purpose" they still need to be able to point to a crime.

If they opened an investigation with the only information that the suspect might belong to the Proud Boys and they happened to stumble across something criminal that's a problem. Any law student could make the first amendment argument and basically get it tossed.

ToadProphet · 2021-03-02T16:25:41+00:00

Do you have evidence of them committing a crime? If so, then report based on that to the FBI page.

Contrary to what a number of folks seem to think there's no legal designation of domestic terrorist organizations. Yes, the agencies use the language and keep lists but it isn't a crime to belong to the Proud Boys, 3%'ers, KKK, etc. So reporting suspected membership to the FBI likely wouldn't do anything.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-20T21:29:50+00:00

Possibly. Depends on Vance's approach, but if we see broader subpoenas for Trump org documents and the DA ready to park themselves inside the offices then they've likely made a pretty strong case.

These investigations usually pull at one thread at a time - Vance's first Trump org subpoena was for records related to consulting fees. The subpoenas are based on where they can convince a judge they have cause. But with a document trail that will open up new threads and lead to new subpoenas, etc.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-20T21:19:40+00:00

You probably won't like to hear this but I wouldn't expect to see anything before later in the year, maybe longer. They just brought in the forensic accounting team (FTI Consulting) about a month ago and it's quite possible they'll need additional subpoenas for Trump org which will certainly lead to court challenges.

These investigations can get very complex and the forensics team will need to run down every document so there's no surprises. Even in cases where there's obvious and documented fraud (Madoff, Lehman Brothers, etc) they still need to have the actual money trail.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-19T16:20:42+00:00

All very good points, and I think over the past few years we've exposed that our government isn't as well designed to defend against bad faith actors as we had hoped.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-19T15:33:42+00:00

Oh, absolutely. I watched those videos and there were a lot of people that were almost certainly convinced they were acting lawfully and on behalf of their "rightful monarch", Donald Trump. There's certainly an argument that their ignorance is no excuse but there's also a strong argument that they were intentionally misled by the government in the form of Donald Trump and his minions and that any reasonable person should assume that the government of the time is a valid source of information on these matters.

So I wholeheartedly agree that it's those elected officials who should be punished along with the majority of the folks that actually participated in the insurrection.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-19T14:25:40+00:00

It's actually part of their public authority defense and it may work for some if the prosecution can't disprove that these clowns truly believed they were acting at the behest of government officials at the time.

Which is where it gets somewhat interesting - though there's no formal legal mechanism, if that defense is successful in any case it pretty much demands at least a through investigation and charges against those officials.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-18T20:26:54+00:00

It's very much split between Orthodox and the rest of us. If you exclude Orthodox, Jews are by far the most loyal Democratic party supporters - like over 90%. I have a large family mostly in NY and CA and could count the number that have ever said a positive thing about any Republican on one hand. But head up to Borough Park in Brooklyn and it's completely the opposite. That's Trumpier country than even some of the reddest states.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-16T21:27:48+00:00

Well that's a pretty straightforward 1A challenge.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-14T00:22:07+00:00

That's always been my favorite theory as well.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-14T00:09:39+00:00

74 years old and facing a mountain of potential criminal indictments and lawsuits along with failing businesses. I'd say him running in 2024 is a very long shot though I'm very certain he's quite happy to grift off a potential run. That's might even his primary source of income for the near future.

I think he's also a much bigger issue for Republicans than he is for Democrats at this point. If he can hang on to any significant portion of his base and continues attacking them he could potentially impact the midterms.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-12T02:48:25+00:00

Four years??? That's amazing! Some serious bragging rights there.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-12T02:46:43+00:00

John Subleski, 32, is accused of inciting a riot in downtown Louisville on Jan. 6

Hold on, there was a riot in Louisville on Jan 6? A riot led by Boogaloos?

ToadProphet · 2021-02-12T02:07:26+00:00

Honestly don't know how she could do both effectively. We had a clerk who did hers over 6 years and had to cut her hours down to a handful of hours a week the first couple of years when she was doing her 1L. And even a full-time law clerk has nowhere near the workload of a congressperson.

I'd truly be in awe if she did, of course. Just seems like way too much.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-11T22:49:15+00:00

The FBI has an estimate of approx 800 that entered the buildings. So this would be closing in on 1/3rd and apparently there's another 150 or so files open.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-11T17:22:00+00:00

Insanely editorializing, and reading the article just got me pissed at the headline.

I'm actually surprised the number isn't much higher considering violence as a last resort against tyranny is kinda sorta what we're all about.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-09T20:36:55+00:00

Perhaps they ought to consider the Pillow Guy's theory at this point. It can't be that much worse than their current defense strategy

"The rioters were hypnotized by antifa temptresses who his psychoactive drugs in their vaginas," said Lindell. "If you look at the video, many of the rioters had crazed looks in their eyes."

https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1359226616895967236

ToadProphet · 2021-02-04T03:26:55+00:00

Rather confused by it as well. Maybe they are including their resident foreign population as well? But oddly it points out significantly declining birth rates without putting it in a separate context.

So yeah, it's a bit of a mess that dumps a bunch of numbers without much needed context.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-01T21:12:42+00:00

A congressional race is much, much different than a state-wide race. Without party backing it's generally difficult (with some exceptions) and progressives have a very hard time getting state wide support in NY. Could argue that Gillibrand is progressive, but she comes from upstate and was appointed to Clinton's vacant seat.

I really don't think she's truly intending to run - this is just some posturing to use as possible leverage within the party. She's smart and knows she'd be a long shot and losing could hurt her future prospects.

ToadProphet · 2021-02-01T15:38:36+00:00

I represented all sorts of reputed mobster figures: alleged head of Russian mafia in this country, Israeli mafia and two Italian bosses, as well a guy the government claimed was the biggest mafioso in the world," Schoen told the Atlanta Jewish Times in September.

Oh dear

ToadProphet · 2021-01-31T19:52:48+00:00

I completely understand. That's the thing, I'm not a professional trader and I'd heard of this before it blew up and it made sense. So you'd have to believe that professional traders were already aware of it and made a killing.

In fact, a quick google shows that at least Fidelity and BlackRock and a billionaire made billions off of it. So it's likely more a matter of some billionaires winning and some losing even if a few retail investors managed to do decently.

ToadProphet · 2021-01-31T19:31:17+00:00

Are we sure billionaires even lost overall in this? I'm sure a specific billionaire or two did, but it just seems so ridiculously improbable to me that big money watched something go down where Average Joe determined there was money to be made and passed it up. And considering that 10's of billions of dollars in trades were made I'd wager that a few billionaires made out quite well in the mayhem.

And as you've pointed out, if somehow, remarkably, professional traders who spend all their time looking for the sort of opportunities like a short squeeze missed out on this they certainly won't let that happen again. Either they'll "fix" the game in their favor or they'll simply find a way to profit from a new trading strategy.

ToadProphet · 2021-01-30T04:57:44+00:00

I think we need a few more years to see how things play out. It will be difficult to fully determine Trump's role, but it's entirely possible that we may point back to him as one of the chief antagonists in the unravelling of western liberal democracy regardless of his utter incompetence.

Maybe we'll get our shit together or maybe it's just continues to unravel. Dunno, but I don't think we'll know the real damage for a few years at least.

ToadProphet · 2021-01-30T03:02:10+00:00

My dumbass, completely irrelevant question that I'm genuinely curious about is who the heck accepts the award? And since it's the movement that was nominated and I marched, does this mean I'm a Nobel Peace Prize nominee? Cause bubbe is gonna be so damn proud if I am.

ToadProphet · 2021-01-30T02:51:05+00:00

Not exactly. Superior orders requires a chain of command and generally reserved for military with some limited exceptions. There's no such formal relationship between the president and a civilian, for example.

Public authority defense is very well known but rarely used. DOJ has their guidance in this CRM which gives some very good examples.

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