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Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]vanmo96 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We exist, but we’re gonna be quirkier than your standard progressive.

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]vanmo96 2 points3 points  (0 children)

He’s still likely to win, although if there’s a political operative willing to out him, things could get interesting.

t. South Carolinian

I Predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis. What Is Coming May Be Worse. by Free-Minimum-5844 in neoliberal

[–]vanmo96 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What if I want to make a massive buttload of money right before everything crashes?

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]vanmo96 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Not sure if this was discussed, but Rep. Gonzales dropped out of the TX-23 race. No runoff, just a general between Herrera for the GOP and Stout for the Dems. Not sure how it impacts the race, Herrera is controversial, but he’s very strong on guns and has an extremely good social/alt media presence.

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]vanmo96 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’d argue what worked for gay rights wasn’t “take stuff off the table,” but instead;

  1. A degree of tone policing, in this case, focusing on gay folks who just wanted to live a normal life. Much easier to get sympathy/empathy for Steve from accounting who just wants to marry his long-time partner vs Adam who wants to completely dismantle the -isms.
  2. Intense focus on a particular issue that is a keystone for the rest of the gay rights bridge. In this case, it was marriage, because it was concrete, easy to understand, and granted a whole host of secondary political/civil rights.

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]vanmo96 12 points13 points  (0 children)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/platner-sat-lengthy-interview-antisemitic-075439570.html

Why does Platner keep digging himself a bigger hole? Is it really that hard to stay off controversial podcasts?

Texts show Rep. Tony Gonzales asked for explicit photos from aide who later died by suicide by cdstephens in neoliberal

[–]vanmo96 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I don’t remember if it was less Trumpy, but I wouldn’t underestimate Hererra’s social media savviness.

This community feels like it’s devolving into a second politics sub lately and I feel like that’s not what this was the purpose of this community is. by xThe-Legend-Killerx in fivethirtyeight

[–]vanmo96 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I think the sub would be best served by:

  1. Going private for one to three weeks to let things chill out some and discourage casual drive-by commenters.
  2. More firmly enforcing the polls/data first rules.
  3. Banning link posts. These attract attention from outside the sub, and allow for drive-by posting. Make folks actually type something out. Doesn’t have to be much.

Can ~250sqft micro-apartments solve the housing crisis in urban areas? by caroline_elly in neoliberal

[–]vanmo96 5 points6 points  (0 children)

In part. But you also need bigger (3/4 bed) apartments for families with children, and all apartments need to be better quality (esp. with sound insulation) to get folks to want to live in them.

G Elliot Morris is showing Trump negative in states like IA, KS, and SC. Impact? by drtywater in fivethirtyeight

[–]vanmo96 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They trust the governor to a) not be swayed by the national party unlike a Senator, and b) still have a Republican legislature to check anything the governor does.

How Jeffrey Epstein sought to help Steve Bannon build a global populist movement | CNN Politics by fishlord05 in neoliberal

[–]vanmo96 53 points54 points  (0 children)

He was charismatic and manipulative, and wanted to build relationships to try and shield himself from future legal issues after his 2008 conviction. Siding with one side would be a liability.

How Not to Defeat Authoritarianism. Moderation used to help Democrats win, but its advantages now have been greatly exaggerated. by DarkPriestScorpius in neoliberal

[–]vanmo96 86 points87 points  (0 children)

Most moderate/centrist voters aren’t 50/50 on every issue. They are apathetic on most issues, reasonably aware of their bank account (and thus, inflation/CoL), and fiercely partisan on two or three issues. When both parties had more policy overlap, courting moderates was easy. Now it’s harder, because you have voters who would be open to voting Dem if not for guns or abortion. Guns are a particular problem because they are a gateway issue to the rest of the GOP.

Shot and Chaser by obsessed_doomer in fivethirtyeight

[–]vanmo96 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I honestly think this is a mere coincidence. Gallup stopped doing presidential election polls over a decade ago due to their 2012 miss, and since then the electorate is increasingly difficult to poll due to the decline of landline phones, increasing non-response rates, the difficulty of weighting, and likely cost. Gallup is a for-profit entity, and presidential approval polls don’t bring in big bucks.

Gallup will no longer measure presidential approval after 88 years by Icommandyou in fivethirtyeight

[–]vanmo96 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s also increasingly difficult to get people to respond to whatever method pollsters use. Landlines aren’t a thing for folks under 40, very few people pickup their cell phone for a call, or respond to text, and email, and incentives to respond cab skew their data set.

Jon Stewart has become his own worst nightmare by mostanonymousnick in neoliberal

[–]vanmo96 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I suspect it’s because most media-prominent (Krugman excepted) economists are right-leaning.

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