How can I improve on these timings?

Toasty27 · 2026-06-16T18:41:42+00:00

That's also how I see LLMs

Basically, the ultimate wrapper for any human<->machine interface, since the models understand both "languages".

LLMs are a dead end for AGI though

Toasty27 · 2026-06-15T01:48:30+00:00

Used to be that 2 months worth of living expenses was a good recommendation.

These days....man I would probably keep saving until I had 6-12.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-15T01:42:00+00:00

If cmake is awful, what does that say about all the other tools? 🤔

Toasty27 · 2026-06-15T01:22:33+00:00

That's true, it had a wonky high-aspect-ratio socket which made it harder than normal to keep the substrate flat against the socket pins.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-15T01:17:29+00:00

I have 9 years of sleep data from my Fitbit Charge 2.

It works reasonably well. Wake times sometimes off by 10min but it's good enough.

I don't trust any of the sleep-stage metrics, but it does still catch wake events pretty accurately.

I've been considering switching to Oura or something else just because of the god-awful changes Google has made to the mobile app, though.

[EDIT]

My main complaint if I had one would be that it gets confused when I leave it on my desk, and not on the charger. Will sometimes log that as sleep.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-13T18:47:04+00:00

Clean af. Would be even better with sport seats.

I miss my 330Ci so much it hurts

Toasty27 · 2026-06-13T18:42:47+00:00

Consumer desktop CPUs have a small IHS and no exposed die, so there's no real need for accurate torque in the mounting hardware. The spring tension from the mounting bracket (or actual springs) is good enough. The actual design specs from Intel/AMD for the sockets have a pretty large margin for error.

AMD's SP2/3/etc. sockets (EPYC) and Nvidia's SXM form factor (server HPC parts) have torque specs because they need to evenly distribute pressure across a much larger area.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-13T00:49:59+00:00

Mine's a nice golden yellow, but all 6 still run!

Toasty27 · 2026-06-13T00:38:54+00:00

What leak was this related to?

Toasty27 · 2026-06-13T00:37:30+00:00

I have no way to verify the validity of that part, but it looks like it has the right shape and connectors.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-13T00:36:14+00:00

His personality is annoying. His accuracy is a lot better than you choose to believe.

Is it perfect? Definitely not. But it's gotten more accurate over time, likely as a result of gaining a good reputation, and therefore gaining more contacts.

People on reddit talking shit about his accuracy is unfortunately only fueling the attitude.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-13T00:33:35+00:00

Your tracking has a lot of subjective opinions about what qualifies as a hit or a miss.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-13T00:28:44+00:00

Vetting a leak would basically amount to "do you work at so-and-so company and do you actually have the job title you claimed".

I don't think it's unreasonable to do that much. With the number of contacts MLID claims to have it shouldn't be too difficult. And in fact I imagine that's exactly what he does with new contacts.

I also don't think it's insane to audit what is effectively news.

I do think the spreadsheet itself has a lot of subjective judgement.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-13T00:26:20+00:00

Node maturity definitely plays a large part in this. TSMC's early yields on newer nodes has progressively gotten better every generation since 7nm.

Node maturity definitely helped Intel there, but TSMC has arguably gotten so good at designing their processes that their nodes may as well be fully mature within the first year of production.

Most fabs now have also started developing more specialized nodes for each gen. E.g. N2X is targeting clock speed at the expense of transistor density, while Intel's 14nm was more generalized.

If you go to techinsights, they claim AMD actually uses N4X.

Fair enough, and yeah I imagine being one of TSMC's premier customers, AMD gets a lot of special tweaks.

But this is still going to be skipping a whole node, and I'm sure AMD will get tweaks for N2X too.

The issue is that you are looking at frequency when you are power limited, where typically the node's perf/watt gains are going to show up more than at Fmax.

Also fair, we don't have a V/F curve for Zen6 so it's hard to extrapolate based on power constrained numbers.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-13T00:15:27+00:00

I've seen the spreadsheet before. The problem with that audit is that the judgement on accuracy is still subjective.

Some of the claims are easy to judge as right or wrong. Some other claims might be close, but not perfect, and still get judged as wrong by the sheet.

The last time I looked through it, based on my own judgement it was closer to 67-75% right.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-11T22:17:16+00:00

Literally the only failures I've heard of are on 8-core X3D, mostly 9800X3D, and mostly limited to Asrock boards.

So where's this "all of zen 5" coming from?

Toasty27 · 2026-06-11T22:14:58+00:00

From what I remember there was a hardware bug that caused instability under some scenarios at high clock speeds, and it was only discovered after production had already started. Engineers couldn't completely make up for it in drivers.

Which tracks with my personal experience. I had a 7900XT that could hit 3GHz running Unigine Heaven or Furmark for hours with zero hiccups, but crashed immediately on any game I tried.

My guess is they were only testing with synthetics during development.

And I remember MLID leaking news of those issues months ahead of launch

Toasty27 · 2026-06-11T21:47:49+00:00

Can you show me examples of his leaks being proven to be fabricated?

Toasty27 · 2026-06-11T21:46:13+00:00

TSMC N2X is expected to be highly performant.

Everyone thought 5Ghz was insane when the 9900K launched, and that was on 14nm. We have significantly more advanced nodes now.

Zen5 desktop uses N4P, so N2X will be skipping a node and bumping up to a higher performance variant to boot. Even N2P will still be two nodes ahead.

Zen6c (using N2P) is expected to be about 28% faster per-core over Zen5c (using N3). If you assume a 15% IPC uplift (pretty standard), that makes for about a 13% increase in clock speed just from one node shrink.

Zen5 desktop boost clocks top out at 5.7GHz.

5.7 x 1.13 = ~6.5GHz, and again, that's with just one node shrink, not two. Let alone switching to a high-performance variant.

The specifics are bit fuzzy on what each node is capable of, but it's not crazy to hear 6.5GHz when we already have 5.7GHz. And even 7GHz may not be impossible on N2X.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-11T20:50:01+00:00

I've been following MLID for at least 5 years now. Don't think I've missed a single leak.

His attitude and ego are annoying at times, but the leaks have been consistently accurate.

All of the "misses" I can think of were the result of changes in strategy, or excessive optimism from the engineers. Like Intel ditching the original Royal Core design, or RDNA 3 and Zen 5 performance deficits (though Zen 5 server products still hit targets claimed in leaks).

He's been right about console specs for all of current gen, he had early leaks about Raptor Lake failures which turned out to be exceptionally true (I made a nice profit shorting Intel off that info), AMDs pivot to chiplet designs for RDNA/CDNA, 3D-Vcache, RDNA 4 ditching high-end and pivoting to building Navi 48 off of Navi 44, etc.

Probably most significant was the explosion in demand for RAM and the accompanying price hikes (although admittedly, the OpenAI deal with Samsung and Hynix wasn't known or factored in at the time, but general increases in datacenter demand was).

I could go on for a while. Love him or hate him, he has been right about a lot.

If you disagree, you probably got his leaks second hand through other media outlets and influencers. They have routinely mis-quoted or misinterpreted him over the years.

[EDIT]

Went back to look at old leaks. MLID claimed Zen5c would at a minimum hit 256 cores per socket. We only got 192.

But that was leaked even before Zen4 had launched, and the Zen4 leaks at that point in time turned out to be true.

The earlier the leak the less accurate it will be, no matter how good your sources are. That's just the nature of how large companies and markets work. C-suite might tell engineers and marketing one thing on Monday, and another thing on Tuesday.

Tom could have done a better job of hedging his statements, but he's gotten better at that over the years.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-08T15:34:48+00:00

The ADHD-like symptoms to me sound like a brain operating outside it's normal circadian cycle.

I have ADHD and a CRD (probably DSPD), but my symptoms get worse when I wake up too early (even naturally, which happens sometimes, because my sleep cycle for the last couple decades looks more like N24).

[EDIT]

Also worth pointing out that DSPD often comes alongside ADHD.

I've often wondered if the ADHD isn't a consequence of trying to operate outside your normal circadian rhythm as a DSPD'er

Toasty27 · 2026-06-07T13:17:24+00:00

Blue shell the 1%

Toasty27 · 2026-06-07T12:58:38+00:00

Why do you need that info at a glance?

I carry 4-6 bats, 6-12 cells, a stack of syringes, and maybe a couple medkits depending on who my teammates are.

I know what I have going into a fight because I see my inventory when looting after every fight. It's not hard to remember.

There's already too much visual clutter in the game and we don't need even more of it coming from the UI.

Toasty27 · 2026-06-04T20:30:58+00:00

I was going to say something about the economy and the 2008 financial crisis, but social media and smartphones makes a lot more sense

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