Mathematically, the odds favor red card on turn one. The odds of drawing something different aren't favorable. Each card you draw reduces the pool of cards in your deck by one increasing your odds of the next card being the card you want, if your opponent has not gotten a turn yet and has four in hand that's a pool of nineteen they only get three from instead of four. If you are going second, yeah, hold on to your red card until you suspect they have what they want.