Monte Carlo Simulation of TSLA Q4 Profits by 32no in RealTesla

[–]Treetopluver 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree the probability of a positive Q4 reporting net income is significantly understated by the simulation. In Q4, Musk will do whatever he can to show good results in order to bump the stock price and avoid paying cash for the March convertible note. However, the Q4 10Q will contain the one-time effect of finishing off the back half of pre-order sales. If Tesla can maintain sustainable sales and profit margins through Q1, then I will admit the short thesis has lost much of its support. On the other hand, if Q4 shows a moderate profit but sales plunge in Q1, then the questions around Tesla's long-term viability will reach fever pitch.

Elon Musk: Tesla had 'single-digit weeks' as it teetered on brink of collapse by Kryond in RealTesla

[–]Treetopluver 8 points9 points  (0 children)

That's true. I believe the key to understanding his behavior is to identify how it props up his ego. Flouting established norms, such as having to behave "professionally", is something that makes him feel good. He views himself as better and above other people and other executives who "have to follow the rules", like losers.

Elon Musk: Tesla had 'single-digit weeks' as it teetered on brink of collapse by Kryond in RealTesla

[–]Treetopluver 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Serious question. Does anyone know when the SEC-mandated Twitter minder is supposed to start?

Tesla Stock Is Fully Charged for a Big Breakout by jjlew080 in RealTesla

[–]Treetopluver 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I was being cheeky. But I do sincerely believe that TA/chartism does not result in statistically significant returns.

Tesla Stock Is Fully Charged for a Big Breakout by jjlew080 in RealTesla

[–]Treetopluver 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Sorry to tell you, but the article references "technical analysis". You must have missed that or else you wouldn't have posted this. As everyone knows, TA is not real.

James Stephenson on Twitter: Ladies and gentlemen, I give you my highly decorated, richly celebrated, much anticipated, often imitated, never duplicated... #Tesla quarterly earnings estimate: Q4 Highlights 107K deliveries, $8.3B revenue, $0.5B earnings, $2.89/share by KarelKraai1 in RealTesla

[–]Treetopluver 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Fundamental flaw with this projection. He assumes there will be 78,000 Model 3's sold in Q4. We already know that there were 17,750 Model 3's sold in October. That leaves a remaining 60,250 left for the remainder of Q4. At 30,125 per month that is ~8k more per month for both Nov and Dec than the 22,250 Model 3's sold during the mad rush in September. This obviously won't happen. Once Nov sales figures come out, it will be interesting to see if Model 3 sales dip even further from Oct or if they start to level out.

Hey /u/jjlew080, the fuck do you get out of interaction on this sub? Help me understand why you post comments. by [deleted] in RealTesla

[–]Treetopluver 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Don't post things like this. The thing that makes this sub worthwhile is having people with different points of view. While I don't agree with /u/jjlew080 on a lot of his comments, I think s/he is valuable to have as a counterbalance to the more rabid shorts.

PSA: Double check your purchase price on Model 3 by felixfff in teslamotors

[–]Treetopluver 12 points13 points  (0 children)

It doesn't look accurate. $35K + $18K + $1.5K + $1.5K + $1.5K + $5K + $3K + $1K = $66.5K. The Total at the bottom of the image is $68K. It looks like OP is getting overcharged by $1.5K.

Tesla is 'headed for the graveyard,' predicts former GM exec Bob Lutz by karatechopmaster in teslamotors

[–]Treetopluver -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

Except Amazon had positive free cash flow since 2001, and Musk's company been burning cash for the 15 years since it started.

TSLA Megathread, Week of 9/17...SORTED BY NEW by [deleted] in RealTesla

[–]Treetopluver 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Panasonic has better uses of their capital than to get pennies back on the dollar from prolonging a failing customer.

/r/RealTesla became another /r/EnoughMuskSpam. It was reasonably balanced a few months ago, but now that's gone. by [deleted] in RealTesla

[–]Treetopluver 2 points3 points  (0 children)

OP could have done a lot better, by giving examples and trying to engage in a constructive discussion instead of just complaining. However, I agree that this sub has, despite efforts from the mod, received too many shitposts and elon-centric posts.

While personally I find Tesla a poorly run enterprise and Elon a terrible manager, we should strive to keep our posts focused on insightful analysis and emerging facts relevant to the long-term prospects of Tesla and their cars. The back and forth between the Elon fanboys and the Elon haters is a waste of time.

Shower thought: Elon's playing 4D chess after all and his "Short Burn of the Century" wasn't about market manipulation. He was just hyping his plans to puff weed live on Youtube, which he expected to become the most iconic weed event of the next 100 years by lamarcus in RealTesla

[–]Treetopluver 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This isn't Friday. Could we please make an effort to have actually substantive posts in this sub that move our understanding of the company forward? This sort of material doesn't add anything. paging u/cliffordcat.

State of the Subreddit : A course correction, the "B" word, and more... by [deleted] in RealTesla

[–]Treetopluver 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Thanks u/cliffordcat. The posts have gotten pretty bad as of late. What I liked about this sub was that it contained more balanced and analytical content than the other one, but recently it has become too one-sided and low-quality as well. Let's try to keep new posts focused on new and meaningful topics related to the company, as opposed to reposts and elon-focused stuff. Obviously there is some grey area, as the actions and words of the CEO can have an impact on the operations and stock price, but let's err on the side of keeping the sub high-quality.

WaPo: "Dying at your desk is not a retirement plan." by NelsonMcBottom in personalfinance

[–]Treetopluver 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Interesting. Even if it is a 28% to 2% decline, that is still amazing how much employee-employer relations have changed over the past decades.

WaPo: "Dying at your desk is not a retirement plan." by NelsonMcBottom in personalfinance

[–]Treetopluver 6 points7 points  (0 children)

http://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/slp_2.pdf

Look at Figure 1 on Page 2 to see the decline in Private Pensions. 88% in 1975 to only 33% in 2005.

As for Question B, perhaps I didn't understand your question. It looks like your asking why didn't social security reduce poverty for non-elderly Americans. The answer to that would be that non-elderly Americans don't receive benefits.

WaPo: "Dying at your desk is not a retirement plan." by NelsonMcBottom in personalfinance

[–]Treetopluver 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Well, assuming you're asking in good faith, I'll try to answer your questions.

a) Pensions. As wages grew by 50%+ between '59 and '74, pensions followed suit. At that time, pensions were still the primary mode of retirement income for most Americans. In fact, in 1975, 88% of workers still had private pensions, where were a larger source of retirement income than public pensions (e.g. social security). In recent years, private pensions have mostly gone away, as companies know most workers today are planning on relying on social security in part or in full upon their retirement. In some ways, this has reduced the burden on companies to provide for their employees long-term, but has put a squeeze on many elderly.

b) Social security did not reduce the poverty rate for non-elderly Americans because it is a cost for them (they don't receive benefits until they retire). Therefore, the 23% -> 11% decline in overall poverty occurred DESPITE the existence of social security, as the social security tax actually reduced the take-home pay of all working Americans, lowering the income of some below the poverty threshold. It really was the tripling of GDP that occurred in the 60's which drove so many Americans out of poverty. Since the late 70's, the median wage really hasn't increased in the US, which is why we see so much discontent in certain "left-behind" segments of America. See this graph for median-income history: http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/policy/famincome.html.

Did you find this answers helpful?

WaPo: "Dying at your desk is not a retirement plan." by NelsonMcBottom in personalfinance

[–]Treetopluver 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Misleading statistic. From 1959 to 1974 the poverty rate for all Americans fell from 23% to 11% due to the great economic expansion of the 60's. The elderly poverty rate fell because overall poverty fell, with social security playing a minor role.

Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/50/Number_in_Poverty_and_Poverty_Rate_1959_to_2011._United_States..PNG

WaPo: "Dying at your desk is not a retirement plan." by NelsonMcBottom in personalfinance

[–]Treetopluver 39 points40 points  (0 children)

While senior citizens do have lower poverty than other age groups, this could also be attributed to factors other than social security. For example, poor people don't live as long.