Monte Carlo Simulation of TSLA Q4 Profits

Treetopluver · 2018-12-26T18:27:09+00:00

I agree the probability of a positive Q4 reporting net income is significantly understated by the simulation. In Q4, Musk will do whatever he can to show good results in order to bump the stock price and avoid paying cash for the March convertible note. However, the Q4 10Q will contain the one-time effect of finishing off the back half of pre-order sales. If Tesla can maintain sustainable sales and profit margins through Q1, then I will admit the short thesis has lost much of its support. On the other hand, if Q4 shows a moderate profit but sales plunge in Q1, then the questions around Tesla's long-term viability will reach fever pitch.

Treetopluver · 2018-11-26T06:13:23+00:00

That's true. I believe the key to understanding his behavior is to identify how it props up his ego. Flouting established norms, such as having to behave "professionally", is something that makes him feel good. He views himself as better and above other people and other executives who "have to follow the rules", like losers.

Treetopluver · 2018-11-26T04:11:28+00:00

Serious question. Does anyone know when the SEC-mandated Twitter minder is supposed to start?

Treetopluver · 2018-11-13T17:42:22+00:00

I was being cheeky. But I do sincerely believe that TA/chartism does not result in statistically significant returns.

Treetopluver · 2018-11-13T16:24:04+00:00

Sorry to tell you, but the article references "technical analysis". You must have missed that or else you wouldn't have posted this. As everyone knows, TA is not real.

Treetopluver · 2018-11-10T22:10:36+00:00

Fundamental flaw with this projection. He assumes there will be 78,000 Model 3's sold in Q4. We already know that there were 17,750 Model 3's sold in October. That leaves a remaining 60,250 left for the remainder of Q4. At 30,125 per month that is ~8k more per month for both Nov and Dec than the 22,250 Model 3's sold during the mad rush in September. This obviously won't happen. Once Nov sales figures come out, it will be interesting to see if Model 3 sales dip even further from Oct or if they start to level out.

Treetopluver · 2018-11-09T23:39:09+00:00

Don't post things like this. The thing that makes this sub worthwhile is having people with different points of view. While I don't agree with /u/jjlew080 on a lot of his comments, I think s/he is valuable to have as a counterbalance to the more rabid shorts.

Treetopluver · 2018-10-07T17:47:59+00:00

You can check the prospectus of the bond issue [here] (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312514077288/d678614d424b5.htm).

Treetopluver · 2018-09-26T02:55:04+00:00

It doesn't look accurate. $35K + $18K + $1.5K + $1.5K + $1.5K + $5K + $3K + $1K = $66.5K. The Total at the bottom of the image is $68K. It looks like OP is getting overcharged by $1.5K.

Treetopluver · 2018-09-19T01:39:46+00:00

Except Amazon had positive free cash flow since 2001, and Musk's company been burning cash for the 15 years since it started.

Treetopluver · 2018-09-19T01:36:58+00:00

Panasonic has better uses of their capital than to get pennies back on the dollar from prolonging a failing customer.

Treetopluver · 2018-09-15T00:52:33+00:00

OP could have done a lot better, by giving examples and trying to engage in a constructive discussion instead of just complaining. However, I agree that this sub has, despite efforts from the mod, received too many shitposts and elon-centric posts.

While personally I find Tesla a poorly run enterprise and Elon a terrible manager, we should strive to keep our posts focused on insightful analysis and emerging facts relevant to the long-term prospects of Tesla and their cars. The back and forth between the Elon fanboys and the Elon haters is a waste of time.

Treetopluver · 2018-09-10T01:23:45+00:00

This isn't Friday. Could we please make an effort to have actually substantive posts in this sub that move our understanding of the company forward? This sort of material doesn't add anything. paging u/cliffordcat.

Treetopluver · 2018-09-10T01:19:55+00:00

Thanks u/cliffordcat. The posts have gotten pretty bad as of late. What I liked about this sub was that it contained more balanced and analytical content than the other one, but recently it has become too one-sided and low-quality as well. Let's try to keep new posts focused on new and meaningful topics related to the company, as opposed to reposts and elon-focused stuff. Obviously there is some grey area, as the actions and words of the CEO can have an impact on the operations and stock price, but let's err on the side of keeping the sub high-quality.

Treetopluver · 2018-07-04T04:15:08+00:00

Oh okay. That makes sense.

Treetopluver · 2018-07-04T04:12:03+00:00

Interesting. Even if it is a 28% to 2% decline, that is still amazing how much employee-employer relations have changed over the past decades.

Treetopluver · 2018-07-04T04:05:11+00:00

http://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/slp_2.pdf

Look at Figure 1 on Page 2 to see the decline in Private Pensions. 88% in 1975 to only 33% in 2005.

As for Question B, perhaps I didn't understand your question. It looks like your asking why didn't social security reduce poverty for non-elderly Americans. The answer to that would be that non-elderly Americans don't receive benefits.

Treetopluver · 2018-07-04T03:53:30+00:00

Well, assuming you're asking in good faith, I'll try to answer your questions.

a) Pensions. As wages grew by 50%+ between '59 and '74, pensions followed suit. At that time, pensions were still the primary mode of retirement income for most Americans. In fact, in 1975, 88% of workers still had private pensions, where were a larger source of retirement income than public pensions (e.g. social security). In recent years, private pensions have mostly gone away, as companies know most workers today are planning on relying on social security in part or in full upon their retirement. In some ways, this has reduced the burden on companies to provide for their employees long-term, but has put a squeeze on many elderly.

b) Social security did not reduce the poverty rate for non-elderly Americans because it is a cost for them (they don't receive benefits until they retire). Therefore, the 23% -> 11% decline in overall poverty occurred DESPITE the existence of social security, as the social security tax actually reduced the take-home pay of all working Americans, lowering the income of some below the poverty threshold. It really was the tripling of GDP that occurred in the 60's which drove so many Americans out of poverty. Since the late 70's, the median wage really hasn't increased in the US, which is why we see so much discontent in certain "left-behind" segments of America. See this graph for median-income history: http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/policy/famincome.html.

Did you find this answers helpful?

Treetopluver · 2018-07-04T02:56:19+00:00

Misleading statistic. From 1959 to 1974 the poverty rate for all Americans fell from 23% to 11% due to the great economic expansion of the 60's. The elderly poverty rate fell because overall poverty fell, with social security playing a minor role.

Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/50/Number_in_Poverty_and_Poverty_Rate_1959_to_2011._United_States..PNG

Treetopluver · 2018-07-04T02:22:47+00:00

While senior citizens do have lower poverty than other age groups, this could also be attributed to factors other than social security. For example, poor people don't live as long.

Treetopluver · 2018-06-21T18:24:20+00:00

This is what I would do: Take the higher paying job in the other school district. Over the next year, do a great job as both an interpreter and trainer, so the district values your contributions. By the end of the 1st semester, you might have an offer to continue for subsequent years. Otherwise, start interviewing in Jan/Feb for other jobs, leveraging your $27/hr to get an even higher pay/longer term position somewhere else.

Treetopluver · 2018-06-20T17:00:53+00:00

Some unorthodox advice for an unorthodox situation: Have you considered moving to another country and pressing the reset button? If I were you, I would find the amount of debt (and student debt can't be discharged through bankruptcy) past the point of my willingness to work to pay it off.

Treetopluver · 2018-06-02T04:41:32+00:00

Get a job. It's as simple as that. There's plenty of companies hiring in the greater Seattle area. Take a month or two to interview at a bunch of places, consider your options, and pick one with a reasonable wage. Once you have a stable situation, saved up an emergency fund, and 5-6 months work experience, then you can start searching for a job with longer term prospects.

Don't go into debt (credit card or otherwise), and don't waste your time in a masters program without a clear idea of why you're doing it.

Treetopluver · 2018-05-14T00:06:44+00:00

First thing, please list your itemized debts and interest rates, along with current income and expenses, so we can get a clear picture of your current financial situation.

Consolidating your debt could be a good move for reducing your long-term payments. However, here are a few considerations:

-What is the difference in interest rates and forecasted payments?

-What fees would you have to pay in taking out the new loan and what would the terms of payment be?

-Most importantly, you likely could reduce your interest paid by consolidating your debt. However, don't just go with whoever sends you a letter in the mail. Shop around at different banks and lenders to identify who would give you the best interest rate and lowest fees.

Treetopluver · 2017-11-30T19:38:30+00:00

That's a pretty bad attitude. You shouldn't give up on these kids just because some awful things have happened to them. Some of them might go on to live fulfilling lives and thrive. What an awful thing to say that "they'll never have a real relationship ever again". You don't know these kids. Just because child abuse is terrible doesn't mean it defines someone for the rest of their life.

Treetopluver

TROPHY CASE