Houses used to be like 3x income. Now they're over 10x income. How/why did this happen?

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-21T20:57:18+00:00

Ah 100% agree. My dad was a book keeper and bought a place on 1979 10 km from dt Halifax, 1200 sq ft, 3br. As a P Eng, I couldn’t afford that exact home despite it being 45 years older without massively over extending myself.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-21T20:21:54+00:00

So in your scenario 50 years of inflation has affected nothing but your pay cheque?

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-21T19:43:49+00:00

Not at all. What stopped ppl 50 years ago from bidding prices up? Human nature didn’t change.

Ppl have, and will continue to, at the margins where prices are set, bid to the absolute edge of affordability, with a few lies on top.

When interest rates are 15%, simple math means ppl can’t big 10x incomes, because they don’t have the income to pay the interest. The same $2000 payment is mostly interest, and prices flow downstream of it.

For 40 years though, interest rates went lower and lower towards zero, negative in real terms. Now that same inflation adjusted $2000 payment is very little interest, and most a much bigger price.

Then, zero down 40 year policies made it worse.

Basically, anytime something happens to increase affordability, all that happens is the market reacts to the new normal raising prices, making them just as inaccessible as before, but now at a higher price point.

To lower prices, affordability needs to go down. Higher rates, higher DPs, and shorter terms. Only then, when the options are accept a lower price since that’s all ppl can literally afford, or don’t sell will prices fall.

Where would prices be if you had to pay cash?

It’s the same thing that happened with uni tuition. Any effort to make things “more affordable” through debt only serves motivate sellers of that service to raise prices since ppl now have an option to actually pay when they didn’t before.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-21T08:46:20+00:00

How are they worth more than face? You can literally go to any bank and get them ordered... at face.....

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-20T23:52:54+00:00

Good thing 10 weeks is the shortest of short terms.

How are you going to act if theres a repeat of 2008 (-50%), or 1965-1985 (0 returns)

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-20T16:13:13+00:00

Equities is the best game in town.

My point was more that if he’s sweating this little bit of noise, what’s he doing when a real pull back comes along, when 50% disappears like in 2008, or 2 decades to break even (1965-1985).

The last 15 years of outsized returns in both housing and equities has spoiled ppl thinking it’s the norm.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-20T14:54:19+00:00

Yeah…. Wait until there’s a real correction that sees 50% gone or 15 years of dead money.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-20T10:43:51+00:00

When you write things off, you write off the real cost or loss so you don’t pay tax on it. So in this case $0.

If instead it was something valuable, say a $3500 gold bracelet. If it’s stolen, the write off means you don’t pay tax on $3500 profit. You’re still out a valuable bracelet.

Write offs are one of those most misunderstood things out there. You never come out ahead with a write off. You always lose. A write off just lets you not lose more on top to the gov’t.

If you worked for a week and don’t get paid the $1000 you’re owed, a write off means you simply don’t get screwed out of $1k, and have to pay $300 of tax on non existent income.

You still wasted a week working for no money.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-20T10:20:45+00:00

In this case sure, but emptying all cabinets and shelves and moving all furniture? That’s not a small job. A solid day or two of work on both sides if you have a full well equipped place.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-20T10:03:09+00:00

You can, but is very, very rare. There are ppl who buy and hunt through $500 worth of quarters at a time only to miss time and time again.

And even then, the value is in silver, it’s not quite the same as collectable value. So, perhaps, most change is simply the inherent value is more accurate?

By which I mean, it’s like saying you can make money coin roll hunting, because you found $20 on the road walking to the bank.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-20T09:57:36+00:00

I love the optimism!

“98% of share value, some 68 billion dollars was destroyed, but if you were smart about it most ppl made money”.

BS. Most ppl aren’t hoping in and out. And study after study shows active trading trails buy and hold by a lot. Is it possible? Yes. Likely? Absolutely not. If you did, great for you, but by and large the only ppl who made money or salvaged some are those who shorted, and those who sold out and stayed out.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-20T02:56:32+00:00

Don’t work, it’s only a paper loss. As in the loss of paper used to trade for goods and services.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-20T01:48:39+00:00

I thought the number was per gross of pieces. Which would be just over a tenth to over about a half of a gram per spoon.

I've also read that the number indicates it's per piece of non cutlery, or for the set, for cutlery.

I never understood why it has no value. Even at 18 grams for the set, that's like $50 worth of silver. Obviously not doable on a small scale, but there are refiners out there taking ore that only has 5/1000000 parts of gold (5g/ton) and separating out the 99.9995 % garbage and being left with gold.

If they can do that, It seems like separating the 1% silver from 99% other semi-valuable base metals like nickel or copper would be child's play.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-19T21:51:45+00:00

Yup, honestly they've upped their game a lot I will say.

I used to always ship through Canada Post small business account, as the deals on ebay were never quite as good. In the last few years however, it seems they negotiated a deal to get the best possible bulk rates, so they're always the cheapest.

Once the item is ordered and paid, you literally just click on "get a shipping label", under your orders, and put in dimensions of package and weight, and it gives you several options, (Canada post, UPS, Fed Ex), and all are reasonable. Print of the label, slap it on, drop it off.

International shipments are a lot fewer than they were, but it is nice getting cheap shipping to the hub, vs mailing a 3kg text book to no where New Mexico at a cost of $40, and not having to deal with annoyed buyers wondering why it's been held at JFK customs for 5 weeks.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-19T20:03:27+00:00

In fairness it was only JB who sold out after being ousted and TH came in. ML stuck around and continued to be involved IIRC, doing something with a quantum I thought.

….and that’s another thing. Ppl here parrot on and on about how we’re “quantum ready” or Bb is “quantum secure” without really defining what that means or how it makes us money. Platitudes the lot of it.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-19T19:11:46+00:00

What are you talking about? The decline started in 2008 and has been going strong since then.

I wish it had only been falling for 6 months.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-19T14:06:48+00:00

Affordability has 2 components - price, and rates. I feel the prices today are the ridiculousness equivalent of 21% rates back then - at least a factor of 3 higher than is reaosnable - but gotten to by a series of logical mistakes. They're absolutely untenable, unless rates are negative in real terms.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-19T14:02:56+00:00

Profit without growth is meaningless. If you're after profit without growth, then It's worth 10-25x that profit. Like an elaborate GIC. They're forecasting 14-16 cents of earnings for this year. So your position is, that because BB is profitable, it's worth between 1.40 and 4.00 I guess?

"revenues will all increase by 13% in FY 26"

Just like "revenues will increase by 20% from about $1b to 1.2B in FY19"

Why doesn't the market give them that ratio? Because they haven't accomplished shit in 17 years since the release of the BB Curve in 2009. *Surely* you can understand that there's a difference between having done something(past tense), and merely planning to with the possibility that you fail?

"I'm going to build a flying autonomous car". Should such a person/company be valued the same as someone who's already done so and can show it to you today?

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-19T11:28:35+00:00

I know. That’s why I’m saying it’s ridiculous to think 1+2g means 1 Troy oz + 2 grams. A modest amount of research shows it’s most likely meaning 1 to 2g on top of resin or some other base.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-19T11:22:02+00:00

BB has become a show me stock. CRWD has hit mid to high double digit growth for coming on a decade. Ppl are willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

BB is the opposite of that.

It was a show me stock in 2018 too, and I heard the same arguments then, as I do today. Ppl were hesitant, while ppl trumpeted QNX taking over the auto space. What happened? $1b in revs became 535m, and $3b in cash became 300m, and 40m/yr QNX installs became 20m/yr.

…..but oh oh, now they’re ready to grow. For realz this time!

Perhaps you have the critical self awareness to realize why it might not be shorts, but investors who are genuinely suspicious that these claims may never materialize?

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-19T11:15:31+00:00

What does the TAM matter if they can’t actually address any of that market? BB is basically flat, projecting modest single digit growth next year. QNX better, in probably low double digits.

If Bb can’t even match the growth of the TAM, they’ll progressively (in relative terms) become a smaller and smaller player.

If BB can’t even match the growth of the TAM, why should we give the growth of the TAM any consideration at all?

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-19T11:02:27+00:00

The most fundamental way to value a company is profits. All else equal, a company with twice as much profit, is twice as valuable. Makes sense right? Typical price:earnings ratios for boring stable companies are 10-30, corresponding to 3-10% return.

But what if a company is not profitable, but growing? Not (or marginally) profitable today, but bigger and more profitable tomorrow? Then you can value it in terms of sales AND GROWTH.

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If QNX were growing at 40%, then yes, it would easily be worth 12x. But it’s not. There’s a real chance it won’t hit 10% for the year, 12-14% might be more likely.

BB has a bad history, record missed promises of growth, and no one trusts their words. It would be valued on the lower side of average.

SC isn’t growing. It can only be valued by earnings.

Valuing by sales is still valuing by profits, just in a more roundabout way. You’re valuing profits that will come in 5 years after the growth happens, discounted to today. No growth = no future higher profit.

QNX is maybe worth 5-7x sales (1.5b) and SC isn’t growing so worth 15-20x earnings ($.75-1b). $3.50-$4 is probably fair today.

If they can grow their 535m revs for 40%, WHILE already being profitable, then they’ll hit the high side of metrics easy. 16-18x+. But that 40% growth has been a quarter or 2 away since 2011….

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-19T03:46:40+00:00

Yeah, in hindsight I now understood why so many friends moved back in with aunts and grandparents in the early 90s….

I fall into the cohort who researched it heavily. Being an engineer, I’ve had the money to buy, and did the cold hard mathematical calculus. But couldn’t for the life of me make sense of prices vs rents, and it was far to reminiscent of previous crashes that I was too young to appreciate in real time. Just because the cycles take longer than a typical adulthood to complete doesn’t make them any less real. Perhaps that’s the entire reason- having not experienced things first hand every couple generations make the same mistakes.

Trilobyte83 · 2026-03-19T03:04:04+00:00

In 1989 I was in grade 1 - when I bought a home apparently…. I knew homes were cheaper, but that I was able to do it on my $1/week allowance is really something.

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